Markets priced 40–50%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
95 markets · 42 resolved YES (44%)
- Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026Manifold · Sep 4, 2026priced 46.4%YES✗
- Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier ModelManifold · Sep 4, 2026priced 45.0%NO✓
- Will I get admitted to the hospital due to oral antibiotics not working for cat bite?Manifold · Sep 1, 2026priced 42.4%NO✓
- Will Jacob Rich Win The Finals?Manifold · Aug 31, 2026priced 46.6%NO✓
- Will "$HYPE" reach a new ATH before EOY?Manifold · Aug 21, 2026priced 42.9%YES✗
- Has my ex blocked me?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 41.5%NO✓
- Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 45.5%YES✗
- Will Byron Donalds get 50.000% or more of the vote in the Florida Republican Primary for Governor?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 49.5%NO✓
- Will the Chicago White Sox defeat the Chicago Cubs during their game on August 17, 2026?Manifold · Aug 18, 2026priced 41.0%NO✓
- Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than GPT-5.6 Sol?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 44.8%NO✓
- Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than GPT-5.6 Sol?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 44.8%NO✓
- Will Grok 4.6 be released by August 15thManifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 40.0%YES✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 49.7%NO✓
- Will I see the aurora for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 48.3%NO✓
- Will I get my licence in time for my flight ?Manifold · Aug 11, 2026priced 43.6%NO✓
- Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?Manifold · Aug 9, 2026priced 49.0%NO✓
- Will U.S. interstate-trade hub centrality survive COVID? (H1-P, 2017→2022)Manifold · Aug 8, 2026priced 40.0%YES✗
- Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)Manifold · Aug 8, 2026priced 43.8%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 7, 2026priced 44.5%NO✓
- Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026, according to Ukraine?Manifold · Aug 2, 2026priced 46.2%YES✗
- Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in July 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 49.3%NO✓
- Will Manchester City defeat Inter Milan in their pre-season friendly on August 1, 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 42.6%NO✓
- Will this market get 50-100 unique traders by the end of July?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 43.0%NO✓
- New fish speaces in julyManifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 41.1%NO✓
- Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 49.9%YES✗
- Will the Rays lead the AL East by over 3.0 games AND the Yankees trade for an All-Star by July 31?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 41.0%NO✓
- Is my friend’s sister-in-law having a boy or a girl?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 49.0%NO✓
- Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 49.3%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 42.5%YES✗
- Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 45.6%YES✗
- Lewandowski to score in first match playing for Chicago Fire?Manifold · Jul 30, 2026priced 41.3%NO✓
- Will Zvi agree that Kimi K3 is better than Opus 4.8 for at least some (non-trivial) use-cases?Manifold · Jul 30, 2026priced 49.1%NO✓
- Will I ever fall sleep before midnight during PROMYS?Manifold · Jul 29, 2026priced 42.7%YES✗
- Will a new FrontierMath Open Problem be solved by AI before August 2026?Manifold · Jul 28, 2026priced 44.4%YES✗
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Washington Nationals by 2 or more runs on Monday, July 27, 2026?Manifold · Jul 27, 2026priced 47.9%NO✓
- Will I reach a 67 day prediction streak?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 46.6%NO✓
- Will I finish listening to the Book of Isaiah by July 26, 2026? (I started this morning, but I'm going on a 4-day trip.)Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 44.8%YES✗
- Will Ashwin smoke tomorrow? 7/24Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 43.9%YES✗
- Are my fasting glucose, LDL and Triglycerides all in good shape?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 48.5%YES✗
- Will Lebron James sign within the next week?Manifold · Jul 22, 2026priced 45.2%NO✓
- Will Europe experience another official heatwave before August?Manifold · Jul 22, 2026priced 46.1%YES✗
- Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 5x subscription on July 21 2026?Manifold · Jul 22, 2026priced 48.1%YES✗
- Will Trump announce that Jon Ossof and Raphael Warnock are illegitimate Senators by the end of the week?Manifold · Jul 20, 2026priced 46.0%NO✓
- pltr up in 1 monthManifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 45.0%NO✓
- Can I get donate 1000 mana ?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 40.0%NO✓
- Harry Kane to score against ArgentinaManifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 43.2%NO✓
- I offered to raise money for a guy I met by video over a year ago. Will he accept my help fundraising by 7/11/26?Manifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 41.0%NO✓
- Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?Manifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 49.4%YES✗
- Will I exercise every single day in July?Manifold · Jul 10, 2026priced 49.5%NO✓
- Will next OpenAI model be closer to Opus-class or Fable-class?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 47.6%YES✗
- Will the Boston Red Sox beat the Chicago White Sox on July 8, 2026? Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 47.2%YES✗
- Will the Padres score 10 or more runs in a game between June 16 and July 7, 2026?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 44.0%NO✓
- Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 47.7%YES✗
- Argentina and Colombia both win their round of 16 match?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 46.0%NO✓
- Will either Flipo Flip or Electrical Damping be chosen to report for Hong Kong team at IYPT 2026?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 43.1%YES✗
- Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 45.2%YES✗
- Will I hear at least once this week the word "stairs" during this week? (In any language)Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 47.0%YES✗
- Will England defeat Mexico in regulation?Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 40.0%YES✗
- Will Brazil lead Norway at the end of 90 minutes (including stoppage time) on July 5, 2026 (7/5/26)?Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 47.8%NO✓
- Will going to Manifest cause me to dramatically increase my usage of manifold markets?Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 45.2%NO✓
- The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 50.0%NO✓
- Will Australia defeat Egypt?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 43.8%NO✓
- Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 42.3%YES✗
- Will the Switzerland defeat Algeria by 2 or more goals?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 46.4%YES✗
- Will the June 2026 U.S. labor force participation rate be at least 62.0%?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 46.6%NO✓
- Will the USA defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina by 2 or more goals?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 45.0%YES✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 46.3%YES✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. construction spending be at least $2.18T SAAR?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 48.0%YES✗
- Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 40.5%NO✓
- Will Mexico beat Ecuador in regulation?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 42.1%YES✗
- Will this market get between 20-60 unique traders by the end of June?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 43.8%YES✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 41.7%NO✓
- Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 43.6%YES✗
- Will this market get 20-30 unique traders by June 29?Manifold · Jun 28, 2026priced 42.6%NO✓
- Will England and Switzerland both finish first in their respective groups?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 46.3%YES✗
- Haiku below! Will someone give me 2000 or more mana by September 28th (9/28/26) ONLY because they like my haiku?Manifold · Jun 26, 2026priced 40.8%YES✗
- Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 226,000?Manifold · Jun 25, 2026priced 45.5%NO✓
- Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 44.0%NO✓
- Will Solana be higher exactly a week from now?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 49.5%NO✓
- Will I go to church next Sunday? (Today I'll watch REV Church, Vista, CA on YouTube. I went last week.)Manifold · Jun 21, 2026priced 46.2%YES✗
- 2к на тгк до конца недели?Manifold · Jun 21, 2026priced 40.4%NO✓
- Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?Manifold · Jun 20, 2026priced 45.3%YES✗
- Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TSTST?Manifold · Jun 20, 2026priced 42.0%NO✓
- Will I resolve this as yes or no?Manifold · Jun 16, 2026priced 49.8%NO✓
- Will EXACTLY 2 of the following people (@jatloe, @DottedCalculator, @121, @E142) bet on this market by resolve date?Manifold · Jun 16, 2026priced 48.9%NO✓
- Will anthropic be up a week from now?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 41.8%NO✓
- Will the UzChess Cup (Masters division) go to tiebreaks?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 40.5%YES✗
- Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 47.9%NO✓
- Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art?Manifold · Jun 6, 2026priced 48.4%NO✓
- Do you like 42% odds?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 41.8%NO✓
- Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 44.9%NO✓
- Will there be an episode 3 of XQC playing Terraria Master Mode?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 47.1%YES✗
- Will Tom Steyer Endorse Xavier Becerra Before the 2026 California gubernatorial election (November 3rd 2026)Manifold · Jun 9, 2026priced 47.6%YES✗
- Best "burn" competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 351Manifold · Jun 9, 2026priced 50.0%NO✓
- Will Trump go a day in June without insulting someone?Manifold · Jun 8, 2026priced 40.9%YES✗
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.