Will I see the aurora for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow?
Final price
53.3%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Resolved YES
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.3%.
- Final market price
- 53.3%
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 5:35 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I see the aurora for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow? The final Manifold price was 53.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.3%.
- Market data as of
- August 14, 2026 at 6:29 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 5:35 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 67d ago
What this market actually measures
I’m going to be watching from the Westfjords in Iceland. Aurora forecast looks good
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
I’m going to be watching from the Westfjords in Iceland. Aurora forecast looks good
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