ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?56%▲13.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?88%▲41.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?69%▲38.5Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?27%▼14.5Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?31%▲9.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?43%▼11.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?0%▼12.9Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?82%▲9.5Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?44%▲14.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?80%▲21.0Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼10.0Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?61%▲35.0Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?91%▲23.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?82%▼3.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?79%▲10.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202638%▼47.4
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?56%▲13.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?88%▲41.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?69%▲38.5Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?27%▼14.5Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?31%▲9.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?43%▼11.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?0%▼12.9Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?82%▲9.5Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?44%▲14.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 31-September 6?80%▲21.0Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼10.0Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?61%▲35.0Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?91%▲23.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?82%▼3.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?79%▲10.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202638%▼47.4

Terms of Use

ProbCast (“ProbCast”, “we”) provides aggregated prediction-market data and rules-based analytics for informational purposes only. By using the site you agree to these terms.

Not advice; not a trading venue

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a broker, dealer, exchange, betting platform, or investment adviser, and does not facilitate or solicit any transaction. Nothing on the site is an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any contract or position. Scores and explanations are heuristic summaries of liquidity and price movement, not predictions.

Data sources & accuracy

Market data is aggregated from third-party venues and public APIs and is provided “as is” and “as available.” It may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. ProbCast is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any venue. Venue names and marks belong to their respective owners.

No warranty; limitation of liability

To the fullest extent permitted by law, ProbCast disclaims all warranties, express or implied, including merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. ProbCast shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or special damages, or any losses arising from reliance on the site or its data.

Eligibility & jurisdiction

The site is intended for users 18 or older. Prediction-market and event-contract activity is restricted or prohibited in some jurisdictions; you are responsible for compliance with the laws that apply to you. ProbCast does not target or knowingly serve any restricted jurisdiction.

Changes

We may update these terms from time to time. Continued use of the site constitutes acceptance of the then-current terms.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]