The daily read · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · ETPast days →
What actually mattered
Of everything that moved across prediction markets in the last 24 hours, these are the repricings backed by real trading — and the loud ones that aren’t.
The real moves
Moved down 48.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Loud, but probably noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved up 55.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 53.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 23.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled in the last 24h
What the markets called, and how the call went — every settlement feeds the accuracy track record.
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Updated continuously; this page always reflects the trailing 24 hours. How the meaningful/noisy calls are made is on the methodology page.