ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

The daily read · Monday, October 26, 2026 · ETPast days →

What actually mattered

Of everything that moved across prediction markets in the last 24 hours, these are the repricings backed by real trading — and the loud ones that aren’t.

The real moves

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Moved down 41.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-41.40%Confirmed move
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 3.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.998%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.092%Confirmed move
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.568%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.090%Confirmed move

Loud, but probably noise

Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?

Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-18.051%Likely noise
Will a moving mirror produce light that propagates below c in vacuum by the end of 2030?

Moved down 33.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-33.821%Likely noise
Centre Left wins In Brazil, USA and New Zealand?

Moved up 32.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+32.639%Likely noise
Venues agree on every paired question right now.All pairs →

Settled in the last 24h

What the markets called, and how the call went — every settlement feeds the accuracy track record.

Updated continuously; this page always reflects the trailing 24 hours. How the meaningful/noisy calls are made is on the methodology page.