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The daily read · Saturday, July 25, 2026
Of everything that moved across prediction markets in the last 24 hours, these are the repricings backed by real trading — and the loud ones that aren’t.
Moved down 11.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved up 25.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 44.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
The widest live gap between venues pricing the same question. All divergences →
What the markets called, and how the call went — every settlement feeds the accuracy track record.
Updated continuously; this page always reflects the trailing 24 hours. How the meaningful/noisy calls are made is on the methodology page.
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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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