ProbCast aggregates odds across prediction-market venues and scores every move so you can tell a real repricing from thin-market noise. Below are the scores shown across the site and how to read them.
How much the YES probability has moved recently, with the last few hours counting more than the last week, and a boost when the pace is speeding up.
Reading it: High = a big, recent repricing. Low = roughly flat. Movement alone says nothing about whether the move is real.
How much real market depth backs the price: dollars traded recently, money resting in the order book, how tight the spread is, and how fresh the last price is. Venues that don't publish a given figure aren't penalised for leaving it out.
Reading it: High = deep, actively-traded market. Low = thin, easy to push around.
How much weight to put on a move. It starts from the market's depth and is marked down for warning signs: thin trading, a wide spread, a stale price, missing data, a brand-new market, an imminent deadline, or a move driven mostly by one account. Broad trading across many separate accounts counts in its favour.
Reading it: High (80–100) = liquidity-supported. Medium (60–79) = solid, minor caveats. Mixed (40–59) = some support, some warning signs. Low (0–39) = treat as noise.
A high trust score means the price was earned in a deep, active market. It does not mean the price is correct; that question is what the track record answers.
The composite used to rank movers. It rewards large moves that are also backed by real liquidity and trust, so a thin-market spike never tops a genuine repricing.
Reading it: High = a big move you can actually lean on. This is the default sort on the Movers page.
Every move gets one headline label, derived from the scores above. It's the fastest read on whether a probability move is worth trusting.
The price moved at least 2 points in 24 hours on a real-money venue, with enough liquidity and trust behind it. A deep but near-flat market is not a confirmed move, and a play-money (Manifold) move never is. Confirmed means the move was well supported, not that the price is right.
A large probability move that isn't backed by trustworthy conditions: thin liquidity, a wide spread, a stale price, or trading dominated by a single account. Easy to over-read.
Moving, but on mixed conditions, barely moving at all, or on a play-money venue. Not a confirmed repricing; keep an eye on it.
We don't claim the market is wrong — we flag reasons the number may deserve less trust. Each market page shows which of these apply, so you can see why a price is being discounted rather than taking the discount on faith.
Little money traded or resting in the book
No recent trades behind the quoted number
A big swing without the trading to back it
Most of the buying came from a single account
Resolution rules that leave room for dispute
The same question priced differently elsewhere
The venue's data feed is delayed or failing
Too little history to judge yet
Prices behave differently in the final days
A curated slice, not the whole market. ProbCast tracks the most-traded open markets on each venue (Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold, chosen per venue so a smaller venue isn't crowded out), plus markets readers search for. Markets that close within 24 hours, sports, and entertainment props such as tweet counts or awards are left out of rankings and the ticker. Manifold is play money (mana): it is scored on the same scale but tagged on every listing, never counted in dollar totals, and never labelled a Confirmed move. Venue data can be delayed or wrong; every market links to its venue so you can check the live book. The coverage page lists exactly what is tracked; about says who runs it.
The scores are rules-based summaries of liquidity and price movement — not predictions and not a recommendation to take any position. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.