ProbCastOdds Reliability
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?67%▲42.0LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?33%▲22.5LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?87%▲42.8Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?56%▲12.52026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House14%▲2.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?11%▲4.1Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse)20%▲0.1LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?97%▲1.6Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?54%▼8.0Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?28%▼8.5Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?35%▼4.3Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time?93%▲38.5Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?92%▲2.2Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?19%▲6.2Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE)85%▲62.0Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in August 2026?20%▼2.5

Event view

One event, every market

Related contracts grouped by what they actually resolve on — a rate decision, an election, a price level — so you can read an event’s whole probability surface instead of one market at a time.

Fed — rate decision · Sep 2026

4 mkts
Top: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket1%
$3.1M traded · 24h

LAPTOP FDV — price targets · Dec 2026

13 mkts
Top: LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Polymarket · Kalshi33%
$2.6M traded · 24h

Fl — election · Oct 2026

12 mkts
Top: Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket2%
$694.1K traded · 24h

Bitcoin — price targets · Sep 2026

5 mkts
Top: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 10?
Polymarket · Manifold0%
$402.1K traded · 24h

Trump — election · Sep 2026

5 mkts
Top: Trump out as President by September 30?
Polymarket1%
$401.2K traded · 24h

Apple — event · Dec 2026

3 mkts
Top: Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Polymarket · Manifold99%
$130.7K traded · 24h

Royal — election · Apr 2027

2 mkts
Top: Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Polymarket0%
$126.8K traded · 24h

CPI — macro release · Aug 2026

25 mkts
Top: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in August 2026?
Kalshi20%
$123.5K traded · 24h

Balance — election · Nov 2026

4 mkts
Top: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Polymarket · Manifold14%
$92K traded · 24h

Who — election · Nov 2029

25 mkts
Top: Who will win the next presidential election?
Kalshi1%
$86.8K traded · 24h

Fed's — rate decision · Sep 2026

6 mkts
Top: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi55%
$68.4K traded · 24h

Josh Shapiro — election · Nov 2028

2 mkts
Top: Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket6%
$66.9K traded · 24h

Base — event · Sep 2026

2 mkts
Top: Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket · Manifold1%
$63.2K traded · 24h

Fed — rate decision · Dec 2026

2 mkts
Top: Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Polymarket6%
$62.3K traded · 24h

Bitcoin — price targets · Sep 2026

3 mkts
Top: Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?
Polymarket · Manifold54%
$61.3K traded · 24h

Fed Rate Hike — rate decision · Sep 2026

2 mkts
Top: Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Polymarket · Manifold54%
$31.5K traded · 24h

Trump — election · Jan 2027

2 mkts
Top: Trump out as President before 2027?
Polymarket · Kalshi6%
$26K traded · 24h

CPI — macro release · Sep 2026

10 mkts
Top: Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in September 2026?
Kalshi32%
$1K traded · 24h

Ban Superintelligence Act — event · Dec 2027

2 mkts
Top: Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?
Manifold10%
$434.5 traded · 24h

How — macro release · Jan 2027

2 mkts
Top: How high will unemployment get before 2027?
Kalshi4%
$53 traded · 24h

Fed's — rate decision · Apr 2027

5 mkts
Top: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
Kalshi74%
$18 traded · 24h

Restore Britain — election · Aug 2029

2 mkts
Top: Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?
Kalshi5%
$15 traded · 24h

CPI — macro release · Nov 2026

2 mkts
Top: Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026?
Kalshi41%
$1 traded · 24h