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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?44%▼11.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?16%▼5.5 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼7.0 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲24.4 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?83%▲27.8 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?92%▼3.0 Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?19%▼16.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?80%▲20.0 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?9%▲0.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?36%▼13.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?2%▼0.4 Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?53%▼10.0

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?44%▼11.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?16%▼5.5 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼7.0 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲24.4 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?83%▲27.8 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?92%▼3.0 Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?19%▼16.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?80%▲20.0 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?9%▲0.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?36%▼13.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?2%▼0.4 Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?53%▼10.0

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?44%▼11.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?16%▼5.5 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼7.0 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲24.4 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?83%▲27.8 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?92%▼3.0 Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?19%▼16.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?80%▲20.0 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?9%▲0.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?36%▼13.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?2%▼0.4 Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?53%▼10.0

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?44%▼11.0 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?16%▼5.5 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?11%▼7.0 Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?80%▲24.4 Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?83%▲27.8 Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?22%▼28.2 By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?16%▼34.0 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?92%▼3.0 Minecraft RSG no-reset average time by AI below 25 min before EOY 2028?19%▼16.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?80%▲20.0 does 1 + 1 = 297%▲31.1 Will a new country join the European Union before 2027?7%▼29.0 Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?9%▲0.3 Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?36%▼13.5 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?2%▼0.4 Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in July 2026?53%▼10.0

Event · resolves around 2026-11-03

Abdul El Sayed — election · Nov 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?	Manifold	Politics	58%	-5.1 pts	Ṁ1.7K	62	15	Likely noise
If Alani Bankhead drops out of the 2026 Montana Senate race, will a Republican win?	Manifold	Politics	89%	+4.0 pts	Ṁ575.9	51	20	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.