ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 41d ago
Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night?
Last traded probability
79.6%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 79.6%
- Event deadline
- August 1, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 79.6%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 1, 2026 at 10:08 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 11, 2026 at 9:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 1, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 41d ago
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ9K
Liquidity
Ṁ10K
Total volume
Ṁ13.9K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 79.6%
- Resolves
- Aug 1, 2026
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