As of Oct 22, 2026, 5:13 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 93.5% (up from 88.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $87.2K traded in the past 24 hours, $435.6K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Source: Kalshi price history · Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$435.6K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$87.2K
cash traded · $532.4K notional on Kalshi
Open interest
$2.5M
It would take roughly $5M of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves t…
The probability rose 5.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (88.5% → 93.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 22, 5:19 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±11 pts.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Independent venues price this the same — a strong credibility signal.