PolymarketMeaningful$1.6M 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?8.5%-2.0 pts
Medium Trust · 76
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Risk briefing
Political prediction markets aggregate the crowd's view on elections, nominations, and policy outcomes into real-time probabilities. They often move ahead of traditional polling as new information — debates, endorsements, legal rulings — gets priced in. Because these markets can attract heavy volume around key events, ProbCast highlights both the size of each move and whether the liquidity behind it supports the new price.
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
Aggregate movement and net direction across this category
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
| Market | Venue | Prob | Δ 24h | Trust | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Polymarket | 1% | -0.5 pts | 81 | Watch |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 9% | -2.0 pts | 76 | Meaningful |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Polymarket | 1% | -0.9 pts | 71 | Watch |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 58 | Watch |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 85 | Watch |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 50% | +2.0 pts | 71 | Meaningful |
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology