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Hot Markets
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?82%▲35.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?57%▲12.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?62%▲31.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?43%▼11.0Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?37%▲18.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?29%▲0.8Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?32%▲10.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?73%▲3.5Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?56%▲12.0Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?99%▲12.6Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼8.5Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202672%▼22.8Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?99%▲70.3Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?33%▼7.5Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?61%▲16.0Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?8%▼3.5
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?82%▲35.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?57%▲12.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?62%▲31.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?43%▼11.0Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?37%▲18.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?29%▲0.8Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?32%▲10.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?73%▲3.5Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?56%▲12.0Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?99%▲12.6Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼8.5Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202672%▼22.8Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?99%▲70.3Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?33%▼7.5Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?61%▲16.0Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?8%▼3.5

Risk briefing

Election & Politics Prediction Markets

Political prediction markets aggregate the crowd's view on elections, nominations, and policy outcomes into real-time probabilities. They often move ahead of traditional polling as new information — debates, endorsements, legal rulings — gets priced in. Because these markets can attract heavy volume around key events, ProbCast highlights both the size of each move and whether the liquidity behind it supports the new price.

Markets
61
Avg movement
9
Fast movers
1
Net direction
-18.3 pts
Sector pulse

Politics

-18.3
61
Markets
9
Avg move
1
Fast

Top: Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?

Markets to watch

Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on

  • ManifoldWill Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?50.0%
    Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldWill Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?50.0%
    Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldWill Barron Trump enter politics?35.1%
    Thin marketStale price
  • PolymarketWill Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.1%
    Thin market
  • PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?4.9%
    Thin market
  • PolymarketWill Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1%
    Thin market

Top noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?

Moved down 16.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.0%

-16.9 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

78

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ42.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.0%

-11.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Nov 5, 2030

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will Barron Trump enter politics?

Moved up 8.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.1%

+8.8 pts
7

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

54

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ31.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 1, 2040

Move feed

Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores

Manifold24hLikely noisejust now
Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?
67%50%-16.9 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 0
Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Manifold24hLikely noisejust now
Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?
61%50%-11.0 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 0
Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing
Manifold24hLikely noisejust now
Will Barron Trump enter politics?
26%35%+8.8 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 7
Thin marketStale price
Kalshi24hDevelopingjust now
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?
80%84%+4.0 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 0
Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced
Kalshi6hDevelopingjust now
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?
80%84%+3.5 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 0
Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

All markets in this sector

Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics43%+2.1 pts$148.3K8684Developing
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?PolymarketPolitics18%+2.0 pts$287.7K8887Developing
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PolymarketPolitics24%-1.7 pts$121.3K8787Developing
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%-0.1 pts$575.6K9395Developing
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics2%-0.7 pts$140.4K8788Developing
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics1%-0.4 pts$102K8789Developing
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$133.3K9194Developing
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics55%-1.0 pts$75.5K8486Developing
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$144.8K9093Developing
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$100.3K9093Developing
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$57.5K9093Developing
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$53.2K8791Developing
Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?ManifoldPolitics50%-16.9 ptsṀ42.2410Likely noise
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$85.2K8690Developing
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$65.9K8489Developing
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%-0.1 pts$53.7K8682Developing
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$26.9K8771Developing
Trump out as President by September 30?PolymarketPolitics1%0.0 pts$66.1K8078Developing
Xi Jinping out before 2027?PolymarketPolitics5%+0.3 pts$42.9K8468Developing
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$37.1K8570Developing
Trump out as President before 2027?PolymarketPolitics6%0.0 pts$25.4K8267Developing
Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?ManifoldPolitics50%-11.0 ptsṀ25.1390Likely noise
Will Barron Trump enter politics?ManifoldPolitics35%+8.8 ptsṀ31.3407Likely noise
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?KalshiPolitics84%+4.0 pts$151.5360Developing
Will I believe Trump called out for shutting down the internet before he leaves office?ManifoldPolitics10%-3.9 ptsṀ53444Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics9%-0.2 pts$21.9K6337Developing
Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?ManifoldPolitics28%+1.1 ptsṀ44.15445Developing
Will Democrats win the House but lose the Senate?ManifoldPolitics38%-2.8 ptsṀ724721Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics3%0.0 pts$21.5K6238Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics12%0.0 pts$14.2K6138Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics3%+0.3 pts$2.2K5834Developing
Will Michael Park become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?KalshiPolitics5%+1.9 pts$528.94824Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics12%0.0 pts$7.6K5936Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%+0.1 pts$3.2K5835Developing
Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?ManifoldPolitics63%0.0 ptsṀ355.65835Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%0.0 pts$7.6K5735Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%-0.1 pts$5K5634Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics22%0.0 pts$2.6K5735Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics3%0.0 pts$1.8K5735Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics8%0.0 pts$1.3K5735Developing
Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?ManifoldPolitics28%-1.4 ptsṀ83.64825Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics2%0.0 pts$2.4K5534Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics0%0.0 pts$519.15433Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics4%0.0 pts$4175433Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics3%0.0 pts$3755332Developing
Will Hillary Scholten win a house primary in 2028?ManifoldPolitics49%+0.4 ptsṀ240.95019Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics3%0.0 pts$210.65332Developing
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?KalshiPolitics19%+1.0 pts$24.9370Developing
Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?ManifoldPolitics24%0.0 ptsṀ32.34120Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%0.0 pts$464929Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics4%0.0 pts$1.7K5317Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics0%0.0 pts$3.7K5216Developing
Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?ManifoldPolitics17%0.0 ptsṀ254426Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics0%0.0 pts$559.74814Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%0.0 pts$93.5429Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%0.0 pts$20429Developing
Will Labour win the next U.K. election?KalshiPolitics38%0.0 pts$38290Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics2%0.0 pts$6387Developing
Who will win the next presidential election?KalshiPolitics1%0.0 pts$2.8365Developing
Will Reform win the next U.K. election?KalshiPolitics32%0.0 pts$13.8344Developing
Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?KalshiPolitics24%0.0 pts$37280Developing

Highest volume

Where activity is concentrated in this sector

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%-0.1 pts$575.6K9395Developing
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?PolymarketPolitics18%+2.0 pts$287.7K8887Developing
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics43%+2.1 pts$148.3K8684Developing
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$144.8K9093Developing
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PolymarketPolitics2%-0.7 pts$140.4K8788Developing
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PolymarketPolitics0%0.0 pts$133.3K9194Developing

What moved today

Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported

No meaningful moves in this category right now.

Venue disagreement

Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number

No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.

How to read this briefing

Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.

Read the scoring methodology

Frequently asked questions

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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