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Risk briefing
Political prediction markets aggregate the crowd's view on elections, nominations, and policy outcomes into real-time probabilities. They often move ahead of traditional polling as new information — debates, endorsements, legal rulings — gets priced in. Because these markets can attract heavy volume around key events, ProbCast highlights both the size of each move and whether the liquidity behind it supports the new price.
Top: Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Polymarket | 0% | -0.1 pts | 96 | Worth watching |
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Polymarket | 0% | -0.1 pts | 96 | Worth watching |
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
No meaningful moves in this category right now.
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
No noisy moves flagged in this category right now.
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
No thin or stale markets flagged in this category right now.
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology