ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?13%▼21.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?43%▼13.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?66%▼15.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?42%▼23.5Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?49%▲15.7US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?21%▼16.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?52%▼5.5Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?30%▲15.0Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?50%▼9.2Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?7%▼11.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?70%▲10.2Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?5%▼4.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?42%▲5.5Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?61%▼7.0US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?26%▼6.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?19%▼5.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?13%▼21.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?43%▼13.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?66%▼15.5US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?42%▼23.5Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?49%▲15.7US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?21%▼16.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?52%▼5.5Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?30%▲15.0Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?50%▼9.2Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?7%▼11.0"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?70%▲10.2Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?5%▼4.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?42%▲5.5Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?61%▼7.0US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?26%▼6.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?19%▼5.0

Your markets

Your watchlist

Pin the markets you care about — watched, recently viewed, and the categories you've muted. We surface the real moves and stay quiet on thin-market noise. Everything stays on this device — no account, nothing leaves your browser.

Add market

My watched markets

Loading your watchlist…

Recently viewed

Loading…

Muted categories

Loading…

Recent moves

Pin markets to see their moves here.

We surface the real moves on your watchlist and stay quiet on thin-market noise — no push alerts, everything stays on this device.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]