"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 14, 6:25 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The current record is held by "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens", with a domestic lifetime gross of $936,662,225. This market resolves YES if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic lifetime gross higher than $936,662,225, and it resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The current record is held by "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens", with a domestic lifetime gross of $936,662,225. This market resolves YES if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic lifetime gross higher than $936,662,225, and it resolves NO otherwise. Resolution source: BoxOfficeMojo Closing market in approximately 2 months and resolving when it is confirmed one way or the other. I may close the market sooner if it looks necessary. Credit to Ziddletwix for market format/idea
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 4, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 18, 7:03 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ121
Total volume
Ṁ13.3K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 79.3%
- Resolves
- Oct 4, 2026