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Risk briefing

Geopolitical Risk Odds

Geopolitical prediction markets put a number on hard-to-quantify risks: ceasefires, escalations, sanctions, and diplomatic outcomes. They can react within minutes of breaking news, and moves are sometimes driven by headlines that later get revised, so context matters. ProbCast pairs each move with a trust score and warning labels, helping you gauge whether a sudden repricing is backed by real volume or is a knee-jerk reaction to an unconfirmed report.

Markets
64
Avg movement
21
Fast movers
5
Net direction
-1.5 pts

Top noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?

Moved down 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

56.0%

-5.5 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

96

Liquidity

70

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $62K · Liq $24.1K · Ends Oct 29, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

Moved down 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

41.8%

-20.0 pts
7

Trust

Low

Movement

83

Liquidity

45

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 53.2 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Markets to watch

Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on

  • PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?56.0%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?41.8%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill pogacar participate in la vuelta 2027?86.2%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • PolymarketWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?76.5%
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?71.7%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • PolymarketPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?4.9%
    Thin market

What moved today

Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 4.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

38.4%

+4.2 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $137.9K · Liq $161.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 5.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

47.7%

-5.9 pts
74

Trust

Medium

Movement

55

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $104.5K · Liq $280.9K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

17.5%

-7.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

63

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $67.7K · Liq $104.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

87.5%

+2.0 pts
76

Trust

Medium

Movement

41

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $141.1K · Liq $102.2K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

11.5%

-2.0 pts
79

Trust

Medium

Movement

27

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $83K · Liq $145.4K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

48.5%

-2.0 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

27

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $58.6K · Liq $62.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

More noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will pogacar participate in la vuelta 2027?

Moved up 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

86.2%

+17.0 pts
10

Trust

Low

Movement

78

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 102 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Sep 4, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

76.5%

+9.0 pts
22

Trust

Low

Movement

72

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $35.9K · Liq $58.5K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?

Moved down 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

71.7%

-5.5 pts
14

Trust

Low

Movement

71

Liquidity

51

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 62.2 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Move feed

Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores

ManifoldPlay money24hLikely noisejust now
Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
62%42%-20.0 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 7
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
ManifoldPlay money24hLikely noisejust now
Will pogacar participate in la vuelta 2027?
69%86%+17.0 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 10
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Polymarket24hLikely noisejust now
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
68%77%+9.0 pts

This market moved +9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

Low Trust · 22
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
ManifoldPlay money24hDevelopingjust now
🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?
61%68%+7.4 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 25
Thin marketResolving soon
ManifoldPlay money24hDevelopingjust now
Will Deportes Temuco win at least five of the last 15 games of the season? (Caixun Primera B)
9%2%-7.2 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 32
Thin market
Polymarket24hConfirmed movejust now
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
25%18%-7.0 pts

This market moved -7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.

Medium Trust · 68

All markets in this sector

Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics38%+4.2 pts$137.9K8571Confirmed move
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PolymarketGeopolitics48%-5.9 pts$104.5K8674Confirmed move
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics18%-7.0 pts$67.7K8168Confirmed move
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?PolymarketGeopolitics56%-5.5 pts$62K7012Likely noise
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?PolymarketGeopolitics77%+9.0 pts$35.9K7722Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?PolymarketGeopolitics88%+2.0 pts$141.1K8376Confirmed move
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PolymarketGeopolitics28%+1.0 pts$568.6K8991Developing
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PolymarketGeopolitics12%-2.0 pts$83K8279Confirmed move
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?PolymarketGeopolitics5%-3.7 pts$44.8K7852Developing
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?PolymarketGeopolitics49%-2.0 pts$58.6K7977Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?PolymarketGeopolitics61%+3.0 pts$38.7K7853Developing
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics75%+3.5 pts$28.3K7752Developing
Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics42%-20.0 pts53.2 mana457Likely noise
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?PolymarketGeopolitics68%0.0 pts$60.6K8270Developing
Will pogacar participate in la vuelta 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics86%+17.0 pts102 mana4810Likely noise
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PolymarketGeopolitics5%-1.0 pts$175.2K8889Developing
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics20%+2.0 pts$82.4K8484Developing
Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics72%-5.5 pts62.2 mana5114Likely noise
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?PolymarketGeopolitics83%+1.0 pts$212.7K8788Developing
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?PolymarketGeopolitics96%+2.0 pts$188.8K8278Developing
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?PolymarketGeopolitics98%+1.7 pts$163.1K8372Developing
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics7%+1.5 pts$50.6K7879Developing
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?PolymarketGeopolitics79%+1.0 pts$101.5K8385Developing
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PolymarketGeopolitics16%0.0 pts$127.2K8791Developing
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?PolymarketGeopolitics30%-2.0 pts$57K7578Developing
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics41%+3.0 pts$33.9K7858Developing
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%0.0 pts$108K8590Developing
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics12%+0.1 pts$51.9K8589Developing
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics4%+1.2 pts$32.8K7850Developing
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics0%0.0 pts$53.6K8388Developing
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PolymarketGeopolitics13%+1.0 pts$29.4K8466Developing
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics7%0.0 pts$59.5K8287Developing
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics48%+0.4 pts$49.3K8669Developing
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%-0.6 pts$49K8568Developing
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics10%-1.0 pts$42K8365Developing
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics3%-0.3 pts$42K8568Developing
🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics68%+7.4 pts687.1 mana5625Developing
Will Deportes Temuco win at least five of the last 15 games of the season? (Caixun Primera B)ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics2%-7.2 pts516.6 mana5232Developing
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?PolymarketGeopolitics92%0.0 pts$65.6K7772Developing
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics2%-0.7 pts$46.9K8366Developing
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?PolymarketGeopolitics33%+1.0 pts$45.3K8164Developing
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics2%0.0 pts$45.1K8670Developing
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PolymarketGeopolitics3%+0.3 pts$35.8K8367Developing
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%+0.1 pts$42.5K8469Developing
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics4%+0.2 pts$42K8368Developing
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?PolymarketGeopolitics86%0.0 pts$32.5K7659Developing
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?PolymarketGeopolitics34%+1.0 pts$28.5K7862Developing
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%0.0 pts$46.7K8368Developing
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%0.0 pts$44.1K8368Developing
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PolymarketGeopolitics0%+0.1 pts$33.7K8368Developing
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics26%+5.3 pts183 mana5336Developing
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%0.0 pts$45.9K8267Developing
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics1%0.0 pts$39.9K8267Developing
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics20%0.0 pts$28.8K7462Developing
Will France cut off funding to Ukraine in 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics48%-1.4 pts207.7 mana5331Developing
Will Iran strike US military base at least once before November?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics40%+1.9 pts93.5 mana5443Developing
Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics5%-2.9 pts91.8 mana4736Developing
War in Iran goes into Berserk mode before end of 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics28%-1.9 pts75 mana5342Developing
Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics4%-2.6 pts112.9 mana4737Developing
Will Nidal Hasans execution be livestreamed in 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics2%-0.2 pts200 mana5950Developing
More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics3%-0.5 pts61.9 mana5344Developing
Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics5%0.0 pts165 mana5750Developing
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?KalshiGeopolitics52%+0.5 pts$72.94725Developing
🇫🇷🪧 Will France report 300,000+ protesters on at least 1 of the next 2 Saturdays (Oct 24 or Oct 31, 2026)?ManifoldPlay moneyGeopolitics64%0.0 pts289.3 mana5228Developing

Highest volume

Where activity is concentrated in this sector

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PolymarketGeopolitics28%+1.0 pts$568.6K8991Developing
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?PolymarketGeopolitics83%+1.0 pts$212.7K8788Developing
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?PolymarketGeopolitics96%+2.0 pts$188.8K8278Developing
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PolymarketGeopolitics5%-1.0 pts$175.2K8889Developing
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?PolymarketGeopolitics98%+1.7 pts$163.1K8372Developing
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?PolymarketGeopolitics88%+2.0 pts$141.1K8376Confirmed move

Venue disagreement

Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number

No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.

How to read this briefing

Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.

Read the scoring methodology

Frequently asked questions

ProbCastProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions or feedback? Contact us

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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