Manifold6hWatchjust now
Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juni32%29%-3.1 pts
- Lowest level in 7 days
- #2 Geopolitics mover today
Low Trust · 22
Thin Liquidity
Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading category…
Risk briefing
Geopolitical prediction markets put a number on hard-to-quantify risks: ceasefires, escalations, sanctions, and diplomatic outcomes. They can react within minutes of breaking news, and moves are sometimes driven by headlines that later get revised, so context matters. ProbCast pairs each move with a trust score and warning labels, helping you gauge whether a sudden repricing is backed by real volume or is a knee-jerk reaction to an unconfirmed report.
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
No meaningful moves in this category right now.
Aggregate movement and net direction across this category
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
No noisy moves flagged in this category right now.
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
| Market | Venue | Prob | Δ 24h | Trust | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 61 | Watch |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 60 | Watch |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% | 0.0 pts | 60 | Watch |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 48 | Watch |
| Cats: The Jellicle Ball wins 2026 Tony Award for Best Revival of a Musical | Manifold | 39% | +3.0 pts | 26 | Watch |
| Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028? | Kalshi | 25% | -1.0 pts | 13 | Watch |
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology