As of Oct 25, 2026, 4:32 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 37.0% (down from 42.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $265.4 traded in the past 24 hours, $738.8 of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 4.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Source: Kalshi price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume, an unusually wide spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (5.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$738.8
Bid-ask spread
4.0 pts
24h volume
$265.4
cash traded · $554 notional on Kalshi
Open interest
$8.4K
It would take roughly $423.9 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for T…
The probability fell 5.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (42.5% → 37.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 4:39 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.