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The two largest real-money prediction market venues, compared with live data: what each one is trading right now, how their prices have actually scored against resolved outcomes, and where they currently disagree on the same question. ProbCast is an independent read-only intelligence layer — we aggregate and score both venues, we don't take positions on either.
Open markets ProbCast currently tracks per venue, with 24h traded volume
| Venue | Tracked open markets | 24h volume (tracked) | Avg Trust Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 131 | $53.4M | 65 |
| Kalshi | 120 | $2.2M | 16 |
Volume covers the markets ProbCast tracks (sports parlays excluded), not each venue's total exchange volume.
Brier score of each venue's price 24 hours before resolution, on markets that have settled (lower = better)
| Venue | Graded forecasts | Brier | Directional accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35 | 0.021 | 97% |
| Kalshi | 30 | 0.034 | 97% |
Methodology and the full track record — including reliability diagrams and how accuracy decays with lead time — live on the Accuracy page. Sample sizes differ per venue; small samples are noisy.
Audited same-question pairs, both sides live, gap-ranked
Fed leaves its target rate unchanged at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting
gap 1.7 ptsProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.