ProbCast scores every prediction-market move for the liquidity and trust behind it — so you can tell a genuine repricing from a thin-market blip.
Markets that moved with enough liquidity to matter
Moved up 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
40.5%
+30.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Watch Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
80
Inspect moveVol $142.8K · Liq $52K · Ends Sep 30, 2026
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
50.5%
+9.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
76
Liquidity
91
Inspect moveVol $744.2K · Liq $637.7K · Ends Sep 15, 2026
Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
68.5%
-14.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Watch Trust
Movement
89
Liquidity
80
Inspect moveVol $118.8K · Liq $56.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
48.5%
-10.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
69
Liquidity
92
Inspect moveVol $1.4M · Liq $649K · Ends Sep 15, 2026
Moved down 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
49.5%
-13.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
79
Liquidity
77
Inspect moveVol $83.8K · Liq $35.9K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
49.5%
+9.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
74
Liquidity
80
Inspect moveVol $64.3K · Liq $121.1K · Ends Dec 8, 2026
Moved down 3.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
3.5%
-3.9 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
57
Liquidity
85
Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $287.7K · Ends Dec 30, 2026
Moved up 1.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
5.1%
+1.4 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
52
Liquidity
82
Inspect moveVol $78K · Liq $115.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Big odds moves with weak liquidity, stale prices, or wide spreads
Moved up 81.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
96.0%
+81.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
76
Inspect moveVol $153.1K · Liq $14.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026
Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
88.5%
-3.8 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
70
Inspect moveVol Ṁ23.2K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 6, 2026
Moved down 14.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
50.2%
-14.8 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
58
Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.3K · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 4, 2026
Moved up 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
45.4%
+24.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
53
Inspect moveVol Ṁ280.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 6, 2026
Moved up 68.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
98.6%
+68.8 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
52
Inspect moveVol Ṁ158.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2033
Moved down 30.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
19.9%
-30.7 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
100
Liquidity
46
Inspect moveVol Ṁ95 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 28, 2026
Notable moves with context, scored for trust
Aggregate movement and direction by sector
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