ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

Is this prediction-market move real — or just noise?

probcast.co scores every odds move on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold for the liquidity and trading behind it — so you can tell a genuine repricing from a thin-market blip.

Explore today’s moves How it works

Today’s read

Last 24h across live markets

20confirmed moves

Backed by liquidity + trust

47likely noise

Big move, weak conditions

74developing

Moved ≥2 pts, not confirmed

26resolving soon

Deadline within 7 days

Category pulse

Live markets that moved ≥2 pts in 24h, and how many are confirmed

View all markets
Politics42moves2 confirmed · 237 liveTop: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?25% · PolymarketAI / Tech20moves0 confirmed · 33 liveTop: Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?73% · PolymarketCrypto6moves1 confirmed · 20 liveTop: Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?28% · PolymarketMacro / Fed23moves3 confirmed · 47 liveTop: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?37% · PolymarketGeopolitics30moves14 confirmed · 65 liveTop: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?80% · Polymarket

2026 Midterms

Senate map · Nov 3

Explore
Alaska: Democrats 74%Alabama: Republicans 98%Arkansas: Republicans 95%AZ: no Senate race in 2026CA: no Senate race in 2026Colorado: Democrats 99%CT: no Senate race in 2026DC: no Senate race in 2026Delaware: Democrats 97%Florida (special): Republicans 91%Georgia: Democrats 96%HI: no Senate race in 2026Iowa: Republicans 58%Idaho: Republicans 95%Illinois: Democrats 99%IN: no Senate race in 2026Kansas: Republicans 64%Kentucky: Republicans 97%Louisiana: Republicans 95%Massachusetts: Democrats 98%MD: no Senate race in 2026Maine: Democrats 62%Michigan: Democrats 69%Minnesota: Democrats 87%MO: no Senate race in 2026Mississippi: Republicans 88%Montana: Republicans 91%North Carolina: Democrats 96%ND: no Senate race in 2026Nebraska: Republicans 73%New Hampshire: Democrats 89%New Jersey: Democrats 97%New Mexico: Democrats 97%NV: no Senate race in 2026NY: no Senate race in 2026Ohio (special): Democrats 65%Oklahoma: Republicans 97%Oregon: Democrats 98%PA: no Senate race in 2026Rhode Island: Democrats 98%South Carolina: Republicans 83%South Dakota: Republicans 92%Tennessee: Republicans 96%Texas: Democrats 62%UT: no Senate race in 2026Virginia: Democrats 98%VT: no Senate race in 2026WA: no Senate race in 2026WI: no Senate race in 2026West Virginia: Republicans 98%Wyoming: Republicans 99%AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWYVTVT: no Senate race in 2026NHNew Hampshire: Democrats 89%MAMassachusetts: Democrats 98%RIRhode Island: Democrats 98%CTCT: no Senate race in 2026NJNew Jersey: Democrats 97%DEDelaware: Democrats 97%MDMD: no Senate race in 2026DCDC: no Senate race in 2026

Senate D 63%House D 91%

Track record · 1,744 settled markets graded · Brier 24h before settlement 0.099 (lower is better)

Top markets

Strongest confirmed, noisy, and developing moves

View all movers

What changed today

Biggest scored moves, one per market

View all
  1. 24hLikely noise🇺🇸📉 Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its October 2026 meeting?ManifoldPlay money-45.8 pts
  2. 24hLikely noiseWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Polymarket+37.7 pts
  3. 24hLikely noiseWill Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?ManifoldPlay money-32.3 pts
  4. 24hLikely noiseWill global zero-dose children fall below 13 million in 2026?ManifoldPlay money-26.5 pts
  5. 24hLikely noise🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?ManifoldPlay money+24.4 pts
  6. 6hLikely noisePope Leon XIV in Argentina before 2027ManifoldPlay money+22.4 pts
  7. 6hLikely noiseWill Elon Musk give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year?ManifoldPlay money-22.0 pts

Biggest 24h volume

Real-money markets, by dollars traded

View all
  1. 1Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Macro / FedPolymarket$1.2M0%-0.1 ptsDeveloping
  2. 2Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Macro / FedPolymarket$813K85%-2.0 ptsConfirmed move
  3. 3Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Macro / FedPolymarket$798.2K0%0.0 ptsDeveloping
  4. 4Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Macro / FedPolymarket$735.4K14%+1.0 ptsDeveloping
  5. 5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?GeopoliticsPolymarket$722.3K80%-3.0 ptsConfirmed move
  6. 6US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?GeopoliticsPolymarket$681.6K92%-3.1 ptsConfirmed move

Why probcast.co?

A clearer view of what’s real, what’s noise, and what to watch next.

Separates signal from noise

Every move is scored on the liquidity, spread, and order flow behind it — not just its size.

Every number names its book

Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold side by side, with play money labelled and venue gaps flagged.

Graded in public

Settled markets are scored against what they said 24h earlier — the record is on /accuracy.