PolymarketReal move
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26.5%
-4.0 ptsHigh Trust · 85
Deep liquidityTight spread
Inspect moveLiq $859.4K
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ProbCast scores every prediction-market move for the liquidity and trust behind it — so you can tell a genuine repricing from a thin-market blip.
Markets that moved with enough liquidity to matter
26.5%
-4.0 ptsInspect moveLiq $859.4K
Notable moves with context, scored for trust
Where the money is concentrated right now
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 95 | Worth watching |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Polymarket | 27% | -4.0 pts | 85 | Real move |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 93% | -0.3 pts | 92 | Worth watching |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 7% | -0.2 pts | 90 | Worth watching |
Trust-scored like every ProbCast market — click any card for the full breakdown.
Aggregate movement and direction by sector