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Today’s read — 8 real moves · 4 venue disagreements · 8 settlementsRead it

Top Movers

Every tracked market, ranked by how much it moved, with thin-market noise pushed down. How scores work →

447 markets · ranked by Meaningful Move Score · 24h changes

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

27.5%

+3.0 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

75

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $82.7K · Liq $75.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

34.5%

+1.5 pts
27

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $47.8K · Liq $55.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

35.5%

-11.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

78

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $58.6K · Liq $26.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Moved up 38.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

70.5%

+38.7 pts
14

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $42.7K · Liq $8.3K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

23.0%

+2.5 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

76

Liquidity

76

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $50.5K · Liq $57.9K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?

Moved down 23.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

29.7%

-23.4 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $47.4K · Liq $14K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?

Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

60.0%

-7.5 pts
17

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $82.4K · Liq $24.8K · Ends Oct 29, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

70.0%

+23.5 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $80.6K · Liq $11.8K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

79.5%

-1.0 pts
80

Trust

High

Movement

54

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $624.5K · Liq $205.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

27.5%

-3.0 pts
81

Trust

High

Movement

53

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $276.9K · Liq $442.8K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved up 5.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

51.3%

+5.7 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $83.1K · Liq $161.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.5%

+7.0 pts
20

Trust

Low

Movement

86

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $46.2K · Liq $112.4K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

36.7%

+1.3 pts
72

Trust

Medium

Movement

57

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $170.4K · Liq $149.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

84.5%

-2.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $101.6K · Liq $72.8K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

72.5%

+5.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $87K · Liq $161.4K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

24.5%

-7.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

64

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $63.9K · Liq $83.5K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

8.5%

+1.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

76

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $49.5K · Liq $82.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

Moved down 15.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

23.6%

-15.4 pts
4

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

60

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 800 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

46.1%

-2.2 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

45

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $60.7K · Liq $832.4K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

"Avengers: Doomsday" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.7%

+1.7 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

84

Liquidity

70

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 18.9K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

10.5%

+4.0 pts
74

Trust

Medium

Movement

47

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $146.5K · Liq $112.2K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechConfirmed move

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

16.5%

-2.0 pts
72

Trust

Medium

Movement

49

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $97.6K · Liq $150.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

9.0%

+1.5 pts
69

Trust

Medium

Movement

52

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $70.3K · Liq $55.7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.0%

-12.0 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

58

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 637.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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