As of Oct 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 8.5% (up from 6.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $94.3K traded in the past 24 hours, $82.4K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$82.4K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$94.3K
Total volume
$740.7K
It would take roughly $1.4K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
99
Trades
200
over 39 days
Largest order
$1K
$11.9K traded across these 200 trades (last 39 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: binance.com
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 2:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±10 pts.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.