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Hot Markets
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?41%▲30.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲9.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼14.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%▼13.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%▼2.6Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?56%▼1.8Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲9.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96%▲81.5Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?8%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▲11.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202689%▼3.8Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%▼3.9Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?100%▲1.7Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5%▲1.4🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?60%▲14.1
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?41%▲30.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲9.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼14.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%▼13.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%▼2.6Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?56%▼1.8Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲9.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96%▲81.5Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?8%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▲11.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202689%▼3.8Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%▼3.9Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?100%▲1.7Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5%▲1.4🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?60%▲14.1

Directory

Every market, scored for trust

Browse the full universe of markets we track. Each card shows live odds, liquidity, and a trust score so you know which prices to believe.

Top open markets by 24h volume

MarketVenueYesOdds ReliabilityUpdated
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.4%Stable9m ago
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Polymarket14.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket48.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi47.5%Developing Move — Low reliability8m ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket50.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.8%Stable9m ago
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket1.7%Stable9m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi0.5%Stable8m ago
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket0.6%Stable9m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi52.5%Developing Move — Low reliability8m ago
Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket71.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket92.9%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket14.5%Stable9m ago
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Polymarket8.5%Likely Noise — Low reliability9m ago
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket85.5%Stable9m ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Polymarket2.1%Stable9m ago
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Polymarket96.0%Likely Noise — Low reliability9m ago
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket1.5%Stable9m ago
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Polymarket40.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Polymarket3.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket12.4%Stable9m ago
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Polymarket1.1%Stable9m ago
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?Polymarket68.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago

24h volume · 225 live tracked markets

$23.5M

Volume traded per 10-min interval

345 markets

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
100

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

99

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $5.5M · Liq $3.8M · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

14.5%

-3.0 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

33

Liquidity

94

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $2M · Liq $995K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
97

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

95

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $2M · Liq $892.3K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

48.5%

-10.0 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

69

Liquidity

92

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $1.4M · Liq $649K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
97

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

96

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $1.2M · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

47.5%

-6.0 pts
29

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

49

Liquidity

70

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.1M · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

50.5%

+9.0 pts
76

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

76

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $744.2K · Liq $637.7K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
77

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread
Stale price

Inspect moveVol $575.6K · Liq $1.9M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.8%

+0.2 pts
94

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

93

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $573.4K · Liq $1.4M · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.7%

+0.3 pts
89

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

8

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $420.3K · Liq $342.7K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
42

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

67

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $344.2K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

0.6%

+0.5 pts
84

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

25

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $262.1K · Liq $335.9K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

52.5%

+8.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

57

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $255.1K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

71.5%

+6.0 pts
76

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

41

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $254.7K · Liq $111.6K · Ends Dec 8, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
94

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

92

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $243.8K · Liq $2.7M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

92.9%

+4.0 pts
82

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

32

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $220.4K · Liq $284K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

14.5%

0.0 pts
88

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $203.1K · Liq $771.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

8.5%

+2.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

83

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $190.5K · Liq $22.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

85.5%

-1.0 pts
73

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $172.8K · Liq $79.8K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.1%

-0.5 pts
89

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $154.1K · Liq $345.1K · Ends Sep 29, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Moved up 81.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

96.0%

+81.5 pts
5

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $153.1K · Liq $14.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

1.5%

-0.3 pts
83

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

29

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $147.8K · Liq $513.6K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Moved up 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

40.5%

+30.0 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $142.8K · Liq $52K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $1.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Moved down 3.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

3.5%

-3.9 pts
72

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

57

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $287.7K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

12.4%

+1.0 pts
72

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

21

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $129.8K · Liq $35.3K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $128.1K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.1%

-0.5 pts
77

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $120.5K · Liq $81.6K · Ends Sep 7, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

68.5%

-14.0 pts
59

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

89

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $118.8K · Liq $56.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
92

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $117.3K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
94

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $111.8K · Liq $2.3M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Moved down 1.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.5%

-1.8 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

80

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $111K · Liq $66.4K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Iran leadership change by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.4%

-0.2 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $110.9K · Liq $119.5K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

83.5%

-1.0 pts
77

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $109.6K · Liq $44K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.3 pts
87

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $108.7K · Liq $278.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

100.0%

+0.1 pts
67

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $107.1K · Liq $121.4K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

17.5%

0.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

39

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $106.6K · Liq $152.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $98K · Liq $1.7M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

19.5%

+2.0 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $94.5K · Liq $143K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

55.5%

+1.0 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $92.3K · Liq $304.1K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

0.6%

-7.0 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

82

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $85.3K · Liq $10.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

41.0%

+0.7 pts
88

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $85K · Liq $232.3K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Moved down 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

49.5%

-13.5 pts
60

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

79

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $83.8K · Liq $35.9K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

38.0%

+3.5 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $82.6K · Liq $23.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.9%

+1.7 pts
45

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

67

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $80.8K · Liq $17.9K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

5.1%

+1.4 pts
72

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

52

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $78K · Liq $115.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

60.0%

+0.5 pts
60

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

47

Liquidity

75

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $77K · Liq $37.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
91

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidity

Inspect moveVol $75.3K · Liq $2.5M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 5?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

100.0%

0.0 pts
67

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $75.1K · Liq $131.6K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
88

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $73.5K · Liq $121.7K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

6.5%

0.0 pts
90

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $72.1K · Liq $572K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?

Moved down 6.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

8.6%

-6.1 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

48

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $72K · Liq $66.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
91

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidity

Inspect moveVol $68.5K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?

Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

54.5%

+11.0 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

75

Liquidity

76

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $67.6K · Liq $53.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

-0.1 pts
88

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $67.1K · Liq $148.2K · Ends Sep 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
38

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

62

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $66.5K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.0%

+1.5 pts
80

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $65K · Liq $121.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.5%

+1.0 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

15

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $64.4K · Liq $624K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

49.5%

+9.0 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $64.3K · Liq $121.1K · Ends Dec 8, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.5%

-1.0 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $63.8K · Liq $438.1K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
90

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $63.5K · Liq $568.4K · Ends Sep 29, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

7.5%

0.0 pts
80

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $61.5K · Liq $395.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

-0.1 pts
84

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $61.3K · Liq $102.8K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

+0.3 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

5

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.3K · Liq $63.5K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Trump out as President by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.6%

-0.1 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $49.5K · Liq $70.6K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.7%

+0.1 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

85

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $48K · Liq $702.2K · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

-0.3 pts
55

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.4K · Liq $56.1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

-0.1 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.2K · Liq $49.8K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
71

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

87

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $46.8K · Liq $945.5K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.5%

+1.0 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $45.6K · Liq $26.6K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Moved up 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

84.0%

+0.9 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.5K · Liq $83.8K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.5%

0.0 pts
65

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.2K · Liq $99.3K · Ends Sep 14, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
69

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

84

Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.7K · Liq $1.3M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.5%

+1.0 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.3K · Liq $51.7K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.9%

+1.4 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

35

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $39.9K · Liq $15.2K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

60.4%

-0.1 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $38.1K · Liq $204.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $37.1K · Liq $827.6K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

68.5%

-2.0 pts
60

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36.8K · Liq $467.6K · Ends Sep 29, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

4.3%

-2.1 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36.5K · Liq $109.4K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

27.5%

-3.0 pts
55

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

33

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36K · Liq $90.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

0.0 pts
69

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.4K · Liq $1.3M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

36.5%

+1.0 pts
55

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.1K · Liq $89.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

4.7%

-1.7 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

28

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $32.8K · Liq $78.1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.9%

+1.0 pts
42

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

44

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $32.1K · Liq $18.7K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Trump out as President before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.5%

0.0 pts
67

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $32.1K · Liq $362.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

72.5%

-1.5 pts
54

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

34

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $30.5K · Liq $63.6K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 2.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

6.2%

-2.6 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

95

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $30.2K · Liq $80.3K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.1%

-2.1 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

23

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $28.8K · Liq $34K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

78.5%

+2.0 pts
43

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

43

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $27.4K · Liq $80.5K · Ends Sep 12, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
38

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

62

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $27.3K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.8%

0.0 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

85

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $26.7K · Liq $772.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.1%

+0.1 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.9K · Liq $209.8K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

23.6%

0.0 pts
69

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.8K · Liq $441K · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.4K · Liq $511.3K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

33.5%

+3.5 pts
29

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

73

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $25K · Liq $10.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

+0.1 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $24.3K · Liq $162K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

10.5%

0.0 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

39

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $24.1K · Liq $443.5K · Ends Nov 2, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

17.5%

0.0 pts
65

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $24K · Liq $72.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.0%

-0.1 pts
65

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $23.6K · Liq $159.7K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

88.5%

-3.8 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

70

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ23.2K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 6, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.7%

-0.2 pts
67

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $22.8K · Liq $187.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

10.5%

0.0 pts
63

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $22.6K · Liq $62.5K · Ends Sep 21, 2026

PolymarketCryptoLikely noise

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.5%

-9.0 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $22.3K · Liq $56.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
69

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.7K · Liq $623.4K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

86

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.6K · Liq $2.9M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.6%

+0.4 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

10

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.5K · Liq $78.7K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.5%

-1.0 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.1K · Liq $703.2K · Ends Nov 2, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21K · Liq $598.9K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.2%

-0.3 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $20.9K · Liq $259.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in August 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

22.5%

+3.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

58

Liquidity

50

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $20.9K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

55.0%

-4.5 pts
46

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

54

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $20.6K · Liq $63.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

0.0 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $20.6K · Liq $87.4K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

52.5%

+8.0 pts
7

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $17.9K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Joe Schmid be Catholic end of 2026?

Moved up 4.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

93.7%

+4.3 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

55

Liquidity

63

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ13.6K · Liq Ṁ1.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?

Moved up 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.8%

+0.6 pts
49

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

67

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ11.9K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 14, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

4.5%

-1.0 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $11.6K · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.5%

0.0 pts
35

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $11.5K · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.3%

0.0 pts
38

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

61

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $10.2K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

Moved up 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

63.5%

+7.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

66

Liquidity

48

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedResolving soonBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $8.1K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.5%

+1.5 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

29

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $7.8K · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

28.5%

-1.0 pts
29

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $7.8K · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in August 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

86.5%

+4.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

70

Liquidity

48

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedResolving soonBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $7.5K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

11.5%

0.0 pts
36

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

58

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $6.6K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
37

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

60

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $5.9K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.5%

0.0 pts
31

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $5.6K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
33

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $5.5K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.5%

0.0 pts
36

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $5.5K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Moved up 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

9.8%

+0.7 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

60

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $5.3K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in August 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.0%

+0.5 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

38

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $5.2K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.2%

-0.1 pts
36

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

60

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $5K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

85.0%

-3.0 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

48

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $4.9K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.2%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $4.7K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $4.6K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.5%

-2.5 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $4.3K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

49.5%

+1.0 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $3.9K · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 9, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.9%

+0.1 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $3.2K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?

Moved down 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

9.0%

-9.5 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

66

Liquidity

63

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.9K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in August 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

94.0%

-0.5 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

48

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $2.6K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?

Moved down 18.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.0%

-18.6 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

81

Liquidity

64

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.5K · Liq Ṁ2K · Ends Sep 13, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?

Moved down 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.3%

-0.7 pts
45

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

29

Liquidity

63

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.5K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

5.0%

-0.5 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

48

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $2.4K · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 9, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.0%

-0.4 pts
50

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.1K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

Moved up 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

98.9%

+0.7 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

64

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.9K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.5%

-1.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

33

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.8K · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Daily Coinflip

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

50.5%

+0.5 pts
38

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

7

Liquidity

68

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.8K · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.1%

0.0 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.8K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will I regret purchasing a Dyson camerajet? ($500USD Toothbrush)

Moved down 2.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

59.1%

-2.7 pts
40

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

44

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.7K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.0%

-0.5 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

45

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.7K · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 9, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in August 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

5.5%

+1.5 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

46

Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $1.5K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

11.5%

0.0 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.4K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.2%

0.0 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.4K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Rogue AIs before 2028?

Moved up 4.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

65.1%

+4.9 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

68

Liquidity

68

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.4K · Liq Ṁ10.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

32.6%

+3.0 pts
33

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

43

Liquidity

63

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.3K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Feb 28, 2027

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.0%

-4.5 pts
13

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

59

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.3K · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday?

Moved down 14.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.2%

-14.8 pts
1

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.3K · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 4, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.3%

+0.2 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.3K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Moved up 5.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

32.7%

+5.6 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

88

Liquidity

61

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.1K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $1.1K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $1.1K · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

66.0%

-1.0 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $942.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

19.5%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $802.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.5%

0.0 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

45

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $778.5 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

50.3%

-1.7 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

56

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ774.2 · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Sep 8, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
33

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $756.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

54.0%

-1.0 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

23

Liquidity

48

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $749.1 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?

Moved down 17.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

1.1%

-17.9 pts
3

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

84

Liquidity

54

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ733.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 8, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.6%

+0.1 pts
33

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $720.6 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

Moved up 14.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

59.7%

+14.1 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

99

Liquidity

57

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ711.5 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will Hillary Scholten win a house primary in 2028?

Moved up 17.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

66.4%

+17.8 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

84

Liquidity

60

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ660.9 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2028

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.6%

-0.2 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $631.7 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will studyofus.com (Aella's face-ranking site) have a serious data leak before 2027?

Moved down 4.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.1%

-4.3 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

32

Liquidity

52

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ603.9 · Liq Ṁ1.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

40.0%

-1.3 pts
37

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ597.7 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2030

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Moved up 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.1%

+2.1 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

54

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ570 · Liq Ṁ6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.1%

-0.4 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

22

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $552.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

42.0%

+0.5 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

43

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $537.3 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 9, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will America prohibit the sale of Mac Studios with \geq 256GB of RAM to China??

Moved down 29.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

7.6%

-29.4 pts
3

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

93

Liquidity

56

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ529.1 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.9%

0.0 pts
13

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $500 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $467.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

7.5%

0.0 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $458 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?

Moved up 14.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

49.0%

+14.9 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

51

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ437.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Do you like 82% odds?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

82.0%

+0.4 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

41

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ424.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in August 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.0%

0.0 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

42

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $385 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

68.5%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

45

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $363.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.0%

+0.1 pts
40

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ343.4 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $119,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

11.5%

0.0 pts
30

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $305 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will French people with enterprise gpt access be able to access Astra / GPT-6 before the 7th of September 00:01 UTC

Moved up 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

45.4%

+24.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

53

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ280.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 6, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.1%

-7.5 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

49

Liquidity

49

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ269.7 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $259 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 9, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.5%

-0.1 pts
13

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

47

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $254.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.4%

-0.4 pts
33

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

56

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ250 · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Dec 31, 2039

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
11

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

44

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $234 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant cert or agree to hear arguments in the Texas DACA case by February 27, 2027? (2/27/27)

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

11.0%

-9.0 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

55

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ210 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Feb 26, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.5%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

42

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $205 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Opportunity party get 9.000% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ general election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

41.0%

0.0 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ200 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model

Little 24h change — what little moved looks like thin-market noise.

9.4%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

62

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ200 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Moved up 2.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

43.6%

+2.7 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

21

Liquidity

50

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ173 · Liq Ṁ3K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.8%

-0.6 pts
45

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ171.8 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will The Odyssey have a higher domestic PTA than Spider-Man on every remaining Tuesday in September?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

45.6%

0.0 pts
41

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ171.3 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 1, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Trump announces official change in US policy towards Falkland Islands before 2027?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

21.5%

-3.5 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

55

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ168.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.5%

-1.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

15

Liquidity

38

Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $165.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in September 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

76.0%

+2.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

97

Liquidity

25

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $165 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% per year by the end of 2033?

Moved up 68.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

98.6%

+68.8 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

52

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ158.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2033

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

Moved up 1.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

23.7%

+1.1 pts
37

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ158.1 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 2, 2100

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

45

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $155 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇮🇷 Will the UN Security Council renew the Iran sanctions Panel of Experts mandate on September 17, 2026?

Moved down 11.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

15.0%

-11.9 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

65

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ150 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

20.5%

+3.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

44

Liquidity

36

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $145 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 27, 2027

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.5%

-1.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

15

Liquidity

46

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $144.7 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

82.1%

-2.1 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ144.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.0%

+1.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ135.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 15, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Apple fix its IP address leaks before 2028?

Moved down 3.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

67.4%

-3.7 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

28

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ132.3 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?

Moved down 21.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

14.2%

-21.3 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

99

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ130 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Aug 31, 2029

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?

Moved down 12.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.2%

-12.9 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

94

Liquidity

52

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ127.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026?

Moved up 17.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

36.6%

+17.2 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

78

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ125 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Did the LZ detect a WIMP

Moved up 4.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.1%

+4.1 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ124 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the the NJ prediction market case by the end of 2026?

Moved up 4.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

39.0%

+4.3 pts
18

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

32

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ120.6 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?

Moved up 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

29.8%

+1.2 pts
44

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

10

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ119.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

14.1%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ118.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Nov 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.5%

+0.5 pts
3

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

35

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $116 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

Moved down 12.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

22.0%

-12.6 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

95

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ113.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will I get a GPA more than 3.25 in Fall 26

Moved up 2.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

91.0%

+2.7 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

21

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ110.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in August 2026?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

98.5%

+2.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

33

Limited dataThin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $108 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.9%

+0.2 pts
38

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

5

Liquidity

57

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ100 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 10, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Assortative mating of embryonically-selected individuals

Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.0%

+11.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ100 · Liq Ṁ400 · Ends Apr 1, 2050

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will Adam Riess win a second Nobel prize?

Moved up 10.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

26.7%

+10.1 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

59

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ99.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2100

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

2026 Gävle Goat stand proud midnight 27th December Swedish time

Moved down 7.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.0%

-7.4 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

48

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ95 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 26, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will SpaceX Crew-13 launch by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 30.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.9%

-30.7 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

46

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ95 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 28, 2026

ManifoldCryptoLikely noise

Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October

Moved down 11.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

21.5%

-11.8 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

69

Liquidity

50

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ93.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026?

Moved down 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

20.1%

-25.8 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

90

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ93 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 29, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Valve release a new VR game before the end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

23.2%

0.0 pts
18

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ91.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Jan 7, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in August 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.0%

-0.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

35

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $90 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Next Bond

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

91.6%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

5

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ86.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?

Moved down 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

27.6%

-1.4 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

12

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ83.6 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Moved down 2.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

83.0%

-2.7 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

24

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ83.2 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Mar 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

90%+ regular wearable use in 1+ country by EOY 2031?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

38.4%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ82.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2031

KalshiGeopoliticsDeveloping

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

31.6%

0.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

32

Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $82 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

6.0%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

26

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $82 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in August 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.0%

-0.5 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

44

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $81 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Person alive now becomes functionally immortal

Moved down 3.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.0%

-3.6 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

34

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ78.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 15, 2157

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the 2026 Vuelta a Espana have 20 stages with a winner?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.1%

+0.2 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

5

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ76.9 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 13, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Helsinki-Tallinn undersea railway tunnel holed-through before EOY2033?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.7%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ73.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2033

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in September 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

81.5%

-2.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

45

Liquidity

23

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $73 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its foldable iPhone at its September 9 event?

Moved up 10.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.2%

+10.3 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

59

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ71.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 9, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.5%

-1.5 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

10

Liquidity

36

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $69.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings)

Moved down 10.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

72.9%

-10.1 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

58

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ67.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will BBC News report US preparations for possible nuclear weapon use against Iran before 2028?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.8%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

12

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ65.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.7%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ63.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.0%

-15.0 pts
3

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

47

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ63.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

67.0%

+2.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ62.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Aug 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

80.0%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ59.8 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 25, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Parsol Shield sunscreen be sold in the USA through Amazon to consumers by the end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

65.1%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

22

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ57.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.6%

-0.1 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

49

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ57 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 8, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will it Snow in September in Houston?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.9%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ55.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Current mod loses role by end Sept?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.4%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

22

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)

Moved down 2.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.4%

-2.9 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

23

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Mar 1, 2027

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrats win the House but lose the Senate?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

39.7%

+2.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.4 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?

Moved down 4.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.2%

-4.8 pts
7

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

52

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Ethan Sun make USAJMO in 2027

Moved down 8.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

41.8%

-8.2 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

50

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ51.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Feb 1, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will "Street Fighter" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi

Moved up 20.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

62.9%

+20.9 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

92

Liquidity

49

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ50.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Can I Beat minecraft in this month With Hot potato?(manifolder)

Moved up 6.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

64.0%

+6.7 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

44

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ50.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Steven Menashi become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.0%

0.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

32

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $50 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Pangram say average feed <50% human by 1 March 2027?

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

34.6%

-1.7 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ50 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Feb 28, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Запустит ли Kaspi новый крупный раздел/сервис в экосистеме до конца 2026 года?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

55.7%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ49.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?

Moved down 3.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

30.0%

-3.6 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ49.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 2, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

27.7%

+0.1 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ44.1 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Nov 2, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will Barron Trump enter politics?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

40.1%

+5.0 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

72

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ43.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 1, 2040

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in August 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.5%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

30

Limited dataThin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $43 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will nadya271 reach Codeforces International Master in or before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.4%

0.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ42.4 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be a Normal/Bug Pokemon released by the end of 2029?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

40.9%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

22

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ41.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will a second Mersenne probable-prime cofactor be found in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

66.5%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ41.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Micheal Kovach voice act a Gameoverse Character in episode 2, 3, or 4?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

51.2%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

25

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ38.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Luffy defeat Imu in the official One Piece manga before December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.4%

0.0 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

7

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ38.3 · Liq Ṁ310 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

24.0%

+0.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

25

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale price

Inspect moveVol $37 · Liq $0 · Ends Aug 31, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

38.2%

0.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ34.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will my @Sister achieve a prediction streak of 25 by EOY?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

89.0%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ33.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.5%

0.0 pts
3

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

33

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $33 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

52.3%

0.0 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ28.6 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Oct 11, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

61.0%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

22

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $26.5 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.0%

-0.5 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

45

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $25.7 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Nov 5, 2030

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

16.7%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in September 2026?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

47.5%

+4.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

82

Liquidity

19

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $23 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will California be in a drought at end of August 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

19.7%

0.0 pts
40

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ23 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Aug 31, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?

Moved up 26.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

51.5%

+26.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

95

Liquidity

22

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $22 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will we get GTA VI before Witchbrook?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.1%

+1.3 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ21.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2999

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

28.8%

0.0 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ21.3 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

44.0%

0.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ21.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the EIA weekly U.S. average regular gasoline price fall below $3.75/gallon before November 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.5%

0.0 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

38

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ20.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

58.5%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ20.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 15, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Daniel appear in Israel in September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

15

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ20 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

31.5%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

38

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ19.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiGeopoliticsDeveloping

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

47.7%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

29

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $18 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2034

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?

Moved down 5.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.3%

-5.2 pts
11

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

37

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Daniel Lord publicly state that he is in a romantic relationship before January 1, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

44.3%

0.0 pts
18

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

45.3%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.4 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Jul 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

New Melee Tier List before 2029?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

64.6%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Samsung switch to horizontal camera layout on the next galaxy S phone?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

43.5%

0.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16 · Liq Ṁ560 · Ends Feb 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

82.5%

-1.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

19

Liquidity

24

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $16 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

49.6%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15.1 · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Mar 31, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

34.0%

+2.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

25

Liquidity

22

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $15 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 10, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

G20 countries merge?

Moved up 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

22.2%

+0.7 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2040

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be a Fire/Fairy Pokemon released by the end of 2029?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

69.2%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

15

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.0%

-3.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

28

Liquidity

18

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale price

Inspect moveVol $14.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Daniel Lord announce the acquisition of “cereal” before January 1st, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

52.8%

0.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

12

Liquidity

36

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ14.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 14, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

35.8%

0.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ14.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 13, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

32.5%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

26

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale price

Inspect moveVol $13.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Aug 31, 2029

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

55.1%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ13.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.0%

-2.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

43

Liquidity

23

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $13 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

Moved down 1.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

10.1%

-1.9 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

35

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ12.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 11, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the closing price of silver exceed $65 at the end of September, 2026 based on the SI=F ticker on Yahoo Finance

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

46.6%

0.0 pts
34

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ12.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Prototaxites get it's own kingdom before Christmas 2030?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

74.6%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

36

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ11.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 24, 2030

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

68.0%

-1.5 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

33

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $10 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

83.5%

+4.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

30

Liquidity

30

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $10 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2031

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

0.0 pts
7

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

39

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $10 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in September 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.5%

-0.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

27

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $10 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

57.0%

0.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

32

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $9.1 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 27, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

82.5%

-2.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

21

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $9 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

79.5%

-1.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

21

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $9 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

7.5%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

34

Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $8 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 28, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

42.5%

+0.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

21

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $6 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
7

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

38

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $5 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

75.0%

-2.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

15

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale price

Inspect moveVol $4 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

17.5%

0.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

32

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $3.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

12.5%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

9

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale price

Inspect moveVol $3.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

83.0%

+1.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

56

Liquidity

21

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

81.5%

-0.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

14

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale price

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

31

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
1

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

30

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

31

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

81.0%

-1.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

17

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

55.0%

-8.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

58

Liquidity

24

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

32

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $3 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.5%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

7

Liquidity

28

Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $2.1 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

How high will unemployment get before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

41

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $2 · Liq $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
5

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

35

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $2 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

93.5%

-1.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

16

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $2 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
1

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

30

Tight spread
Limited dataThin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol $1.9 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

38.0%

+1.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

32

Liquidity

29

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $1.8 · Liq $0 · Ends Aug 31, 2029

KalshiGeopoliticsDeveloping

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

54.8%

+0.1 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

26

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $1.7 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2039

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Ethereum price at Sep 4, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

26.5%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

24

Limited dataThin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $1 · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 4, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

15.5%

+11.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

13

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $1 · Liq $0 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Moved down 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

60.5%

-12.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

91

Liquidity

19

Limited dataThin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $1 · Liq $0 · Ends Apr 28, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

75.5%

+3.5 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

45

Liquidity

18

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $1 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

29.5%

+4.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

44

Liquidity

16

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $1 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.0%

-1.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

14

Limited dataThin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $1 · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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