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Tracked markets, scored for trust

TrackingPolymarketKalshiManifold

Browse every market we track. Each card shows live odds, liquidity, and a trust score so you know which prices to believe. This is a curated slice (the most-traded open markets on each venue plus markets readers search for), not every market on Polymarket, Kalshi or Manifold. What's covered · How scores work

24h volume · 322 live tracked markets

$13.1M

Volume traded per 10-min interval

445 markets

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
95

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

93

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $828.7K · Liq $927.1K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

85.5%

-2.0 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

49

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $764.6K · Liq $589.8K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.5%

+2.0 pts
96

Trust

High

Movement

16

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $736.3K · Liq $529.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Moved down 1.8 pts over 24h — driven largely by a single account, not broad repricing.

92.7%

-1.8 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

67

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soonOne-trader move

Inspect moveVol $727.6K · Liq $58.1K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

78.5%

-4.0 pts
76

Trust

Medium

Movement

51

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $636K · Liq $290.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 2.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

76.4%

-2.3 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

34

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread
Past deadline

Inspect moveVol $494K · Liq $521.7K · Ends Oct 4, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
100

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

92

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $475.9K · Liq $1.2M · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

22.5%

+1.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

61

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread
Past deadline

Inspect moveVol $421.2K · Liq $506.5K · Ends Oct 4, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

38.5%

0.0 pts
94

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $343.1K · Liq $1.2M · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

28.5%

-1.0 pts
90

Trust

High

Movement

20

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $279.2K · Liq $415.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.5%

-0.6 pts
91

Trust

High

Movement

6

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $234.2K · Liq $634.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidity

Inspect moveVol $177.8K · Liq $1.1M · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.2%

+0.1 pts
93

Trust

High

Movement

2

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $171K · Liq $2.3M · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.6%

+0.5 pts
85

Trust

High

Movement

14

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $169.8K · Liq $128.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

77.5%

-1.0 pts
75

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $168.7K · Liq $191.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.7%

-1.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

31

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $159.2K · Liq $49.8K · Ends Oct 21, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

11.0%

+4.5 pts
73

Trust

Medium

Movement

45

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $156.7K · Liq $117.8K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.8%

+0.4 pts
87

Trust

High

Movement

10

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $153.6K · Liq $241.8K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.5%

-1.0 pts
90

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $150.3K · Liq $3.1M · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the House in 2026?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

10.0%

-0.6 pts
93

Trust

High

Movement

5

Liquidity

92

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $140.8K · Liq $4.1M · Ends Feb 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

12.5%

0.0 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

13

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $139.8K · Liq $562.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

9.5%

0.0 pts
90

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $133.7K · Liq $622.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 4.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

8.5%

-4.1 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

81

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $117.4K · Liq $75.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

6.5%

-2.1 pts
65

Trust

Medium

Movement

44

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $110.1K · Liq $124.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

91.5%

+1.0 pts
89

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $106K · Liq $3.3M · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $102.1K · Liq $1.8M · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketAI / TechConfirmed move

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

16.5%

-2.0 pts
79

Trust

Medium

Movement

27

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $97.6K · Liq $128.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2028

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

61.5%

0.0 pts
92

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $96.7K · Liq $1.1M · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

28.0%

-2.0 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

22

Liquidity

76

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $91K · Liq $31.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

62.5%

0.0 pts
91

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $89.5K · Liq $3.3M · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved up 3.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

49.9%

+3.7 pts
75

Trust

Medium

Movement

46

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $88.4K · Liq $142.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

71.5%

+4.0 pts
76

Trust

Medium

Movement

39

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $85.7K · Liq $254.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Moved up 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.9%

+1.2 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

13

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $84.3K · Liq $273.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.0%

+0.5 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

25

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $83.1K · Liq $54.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

65.5%

+7.0 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

97

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $82.7K · Liq $29.4K · Ends Oct 29, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

54.5%

-5.0 pts
69

Trust

Medium

Movement

53

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $82.6K · Liq $50.8K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

26.5%

-10.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

82

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $80.4K · Liq $79.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

51.0%

+8.0 pts
11

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $79.4K · Liq $5.8K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

85.5%

-1.0 pts
84

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $78.5K · Liq $86.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

11.8%

0.0 pts
89

Trust

High

Movement

1

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $77.8K · Liq $290.1K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?

Moved up 34.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.3%

+34.7 pts
3

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $77.6K · Liq $5.9K · Ends Oct 20, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.5%

-1.0 pts
85

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $76.7K · Liq $381.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

83.0%

-2.5 pts
26

Trust

Low

Movement

87

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $73.9K · Liq $24.2K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

19.5%

-2.0 pts
82

Trust

High

Movement

16

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $73.5K · Liq $237.3K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

10.5%

+1.0 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $72.7K · Liq $588.8K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.3%

+0.2 pts
85

Trust

High

Movement

12

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $72.7K · Liq $166.5K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

38.5%

0.0 pts
89

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $71.5K · Liq $421K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

7.5%

0.0 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $69.8K · Liq $78.3K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

0.0 pts
89

Trust

High

Movement

5

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $69.7K · Liq $437.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.6%

0.0 pts
91

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $69.7K · Liq $640.8K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved up 2.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

40.8%

+2.4 pts
80

Trust

High

Movement

25

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $69.6K · Liq $143.8K · Ends Nov 28, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.5%

-1.0 pts
85

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $66.6K · Liq $384.1K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

87.0%

-4.5 pts
21

Trust

Low

Movement

68

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $66.3K · Liq $17.8K · Ends Oct 24, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

46.1%

-2.2 pts
83

Trust

High

Movement

26

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $63.5K · Liq $832.6K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.9%

+1.4 pts
73

Trust

Medium

Movement

47

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $62.3K · Liq $97.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved up 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.6%

+0.9 pts
83

Trust

High

Movement

16

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $61.2K · Liq $188.3K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?

Moved down 6.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

48.6%

-6.4 pts
11

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $61.2K · Liq $4.9K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.5%

-1.0 pts
88

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $60.7K · Liq $605.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

68.5%

+3.0 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

44

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $60K · Liq $282.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

63.5%

-1.0 pts
88

Trust

High

Movement

9

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $59.5K · Liq $2.9M · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketOtherDeveloping

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

+0.2 pts
65

Trust

Medium

Movement

8

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $58.7K · Liq $39.7K · Ends Oct 23, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

+0.1 pts
91

Trust

High

Movement

2

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $58.5K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketOtherDeveloping

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

76.0%

-1.3 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

40

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $58.2K · Liq $5.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.8%

-0.1 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

6

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $58K · Liq $132.8K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

38.5%

-3.0 pts
83

Trust

High

Movement

23

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $57.6K · Liq $458.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

21.0%

+2.5 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

67

Liquidity

76

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $56.3K · Liq $51.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

31.0%

-2.5 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

89

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $56.1K · Liq $48.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

-0.2 pts
66

Trust

Medium

Movement

4

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $55.8K · Liq $42.4K · Ends Oct 20, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.3%

+0.1 pts
88

Trust

High

Movement

6

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $53.4K · Liq $380.5K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

25.5%

-3.5 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

55

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $52.4K · Liq $96.1K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

4.5%

-0.6 pts
89

Trust

High

Movement

8

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $51.7K · Liq $542K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

62.5%

0.0 pts
90

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $51.5K · Liq $700.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

47.5%

+9.0 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

71

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soonMoving fast

Inspect moveVol $51.4K · Liq $110.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

23.5%

+3.0 pts
75

Trust

Medium

Movement

33

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.9K · Liq $52.1K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

42.0%

+2.5 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

75

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.7K · Liq $29.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.4%

-0.1 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

15

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.3K · Liq $42.2K · Ends Nov 15, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.1%

-0.2 pts
84

Trust

High

Movement

3

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.2K · Liq $39.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
92

Trust

High

Movement

0

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.1K · Liq $981.4K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

44.5%

0.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

49

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $49.8K · Liq $49.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

35.5%

0.0 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

68

Thin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $49.8K · Liq $23.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Moved up 7.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

76.3%

+7.1 pts
15

Trust

Low

Movement

88

Liquidity

70

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $48.8K · Liq $6.3K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

13.5%

0.0 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

30

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $48.7K · Liq $39.6K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Trump out as President before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.0%

-0.1 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

6

Liquidity

85

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $48.5K · Liq $343.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

28.0%

-4.5 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

48

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $48.4K · Liq $194.7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.2 pts
65

Trust

Medium

Movement

4

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $48.1K · Liq $89K · Ends Nov 1, 2026

PolymarketOtherDeveloping

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.3%

+1.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

23

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $48.1K · Liq $15.9K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Moved down 2.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

43.8%

-2.4 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

19

Liquidity

85

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.9K · Liq $377.6K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.0%

-0.5 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

25

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.6K · Liq $146.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

Moved down 4.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

24.2%

-4.9 pts
17

Trust

Low

Movement

86

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $47.5K · Liq $7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

56.5%

-3.0 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

69

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $47.1K · Liq $42.5K · Ends Nov 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

2

Liquidity

88

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $46.9K · Liq $1.1M · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.5%

+1.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

29

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $46K · Liq $126.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?

Moved down 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.3%

-1.4 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

17

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $45.7K · Liq $125.8K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $45.6K · Liq $208K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.5%

+1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $44.6K · Liq $53.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

+0.1 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

2

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $43.9K · Liq $108K · Ends Mar 31, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.5%

+2.0 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

36

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $43.4K · Liq $164K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketOtherDeveloping

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Moved down 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.1%

-0.8 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

17

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.5K · Liq $90.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.7%

+0.1 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

1

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.4K · Liq $570.1K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.5%

+1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.4K · Liq $204.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.5%

0.0 pts
69

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.3K · Liq $495.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

59.5%

-3.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $41.9K · Liq $114.5K · Ends Nov 28, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

77.5%

+2.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

27

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $41K · Liq $212.6K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

31.5%

0.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.7K · Liq $227.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.5%

+1.0 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

53

Liquidity

70

Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.1K · Liq $25.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.6%

+0.9 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $39.6K · Liq $34.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

36.5%

-1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $39.3K · Liq $67.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

0.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $39.1K · Liq $211.6K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Moved up 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.4%

+1.2 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

26

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $38.2K · Liq $146.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

37.5%

0.0 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

71

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $37.3K · Liq $5.4K · Ends Mar 31, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $37K · Liq $251.4K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

27.5%

0.0 pts
70

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

86

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36.9K · Liq $3.2M · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.5%

-5.0 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

36

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36.3K · Liq $42.2K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.9%

-0.5 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

28

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.5K · Liq $38.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

68.5%

0.0 pts
65

Trust

Medium

Movement

7

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.5K · Liq $166K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.8%

+0.2 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

4

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.1K · Liq $274.1K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.3%

-0.1 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

6

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $34.9K · Liq $49.1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.4%

-1.7 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

19

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin marketPast deadline

Inspect moveVol $34.6K · Liq $79.7K · Ends Sep 13, 2026

PolymarketCryptoLikely noise

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

12.5%

-8.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

72

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $34.2K · Liq $86.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

17.5%

+2.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

27

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $34.1K · Liq $173.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

64.5%

-1.5 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

18

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $34K · Liq $15.5K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

35.5%

0.0 pts
69

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $33.5K · Liq $438.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.5%

-3.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

53

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $30.3K · Liq $180.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

82.0%

-2.5 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

43

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $29.5K · Liq $117K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

85.5%

-1.0 pts
73

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $29K · Liq $219.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

36.5%

+3.0 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $28.4K · Liq $228.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.5%

+3.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

23

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $28.3K · Liq $532K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrats win the House in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

90.1%

0.0 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

87

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $27.6K · Liq $992.3K · Ends Feb 1, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

37.5%

0.0 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $27.4K · Liq $218.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

63.5%

-1.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

20

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.6K · Liq $209.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

30.5%

+1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.1K · Liq $288.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Carolina?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.0%

-0.5 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

25

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $22.4K · Liq $257.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.5%

0.0 pts
69

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.8K · Liq $3.4M · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratic (DFL)s win the Senate race in Minnesota?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

86.5%

+1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.7K · Liq $228.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

"Avengers: Doomsday" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?

Moved up 4.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

47.7%

+4.9 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

35

Liquidity

68

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 18.9K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

64.5%

-1.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

20

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $18.9K · Liq $459.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

82.5%

0.0 pts
66

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $18.6K · Liq $185.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

37.5%

-3.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

28

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $17.1K · Liq $281.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.5%

-2.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $17K · Liq $147K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.5%

-1.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

20

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $15.2K · Liq $166.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

57.5%

0.0 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $15K · Liq $399K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.5%

+1.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $14.7K · Liq $241.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.5%

-0.5 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

11

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $11.1K · Liq $291.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiAI / TechDeveloping

Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?

Moved up 4.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

52.0%

+4.8 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

36

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $10.4K · Liq $11.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

50.5%

-1.0 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

44

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $9.1K · Liq $327.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

43.5%

0.0 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $9K · Liq $435K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

69.5%

0.0 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $8.1K · Liq $276.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.5%

+1.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $7.9K · Liq $63.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

73.5%

0.0 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $7.7K · Liq $220.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

25.5%

0.0 pts
66

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $6.6K · Liq $519.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.5%

+1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $6.2K · Liq $207K · Ends Nov 7, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

33.0%

-1.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

71

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 6.1K mana · Liq 5.2K mana · Ends Jan 1, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.8%

-0.1 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

7

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $5.7K · Liq $403.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.5%

+1.0 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $5.5K · Liq $253.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

71.5%

+1.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $5.4K · Liq $260.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?

Moved down 5.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

27.3%

-5.7 pts
22

Trust

Low

Movement

84

Liquidity

68

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 5.3K mana · Liq 1.5K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.5%

+2.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $4.6K · Liq $195.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.3%

-2.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

48

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $4.2K · Liq $192.6K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.8%

-0.4 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $4K · Liq $65K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House following the Midterms?

Moved down 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

5.3%

-0.7 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

15

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 3.6K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Florida?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.8%

-0.1 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

4

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $3.6K · Liq $114.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the Majority or Minority Leader in the House after the Midterms?

Moved up 5.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

91.4%

+5.4 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

96

Liquidity

66

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 3.5K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

37.5%

0.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $3.3K · Liq $158.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

27.5%

+1.0 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

33

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $3.1K · Liq $325.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

42.5%

0.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $3K · Liq $212.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.5%

-1.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.9K · Liq $91.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.5%

+0.4 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

11

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.8K · Liq $383.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

9.4%

-0.2 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

11

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.6K · Liq $155.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

87.5%

0.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

71

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.6K · Liq $90.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Election by 3% or more?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

46.1%

+0.1 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 2.4K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

20.5%

0.0 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.3K · Liq $170.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

11.2%

+0.3 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 2.3K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Jun 14, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

90.5%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

71

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.2K · Liq $64.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

73.5%

+1.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

9

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2K · Liq $366.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

92.0%

+0.5 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

25

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.9K · Liq $103.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratic candidate James Talarico win Tarrant County in the 2026 TX-SEN election?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

92.5%

+1.5 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.9K mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

58.5%

0.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.8K · Liq $209.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

13.5%

0.0 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

70

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.8K · Liq $76.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Florida?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

91.4%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

6

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.8K · Liq $108.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

Moved down 11.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

27.6%

-11.4 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

96

Liquidity

65

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 1.7K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

9.8%

-0.2 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

4

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.7K · Liq $205K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

75.0%

+0.5 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.7K · Liq $344.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will the next white house press secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?

Moved down 7.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

57.4%

-7.9 pts
3

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 1.7K mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

75.5%

+3.0 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

38

Liquidity

67

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.7K · Liq $8K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Mitch McConnell alive all of October 2026?

Moved down 1.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.7%

-1.6 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.6K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

29.5%

0.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.6K · Liq $283.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026?

Moved up 4.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

91.0%

+4.8 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

35

Liquidity

59

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.5K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Daily Coinflip

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.2%

0.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

67

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 1.4K mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 20, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.4K · Liq $245.2K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiOtherLikely noise

Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

70.0%

-1.5 pts
25

Trust

Low

Movement

71

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $1.4K · Liq $5.6K · Ends Jan 20, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

48.0%

+1.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

15

Liquidity

64

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.4K · Liq $7K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Bitcoin $87,500 in October 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

25.0%

-0.3 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

26

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.4K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Republicans win Texas governor by 6+ points?

Moved down 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.0%

-0.8 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.4K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Anthropic announce a $400+/month tier before November 2026?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

6.1%

-7.0 pts
19

Trust

Low

Movement

80

Liquidity

62

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 1.3K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will 0xDe89112492A292c194D2501b2721D4Bc6cED2A75 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 25th 11:59 pm UTC

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.4%

0.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

65

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 1.3K mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

KalshiOtherDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Feb 1, 2027?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.5%

-3.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

38

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.2K · Liq $6.1K · Ends Feb 1, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

82.5%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.2K · Liq $8.4K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

21.5%

-3.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.2K · Liq $9.3K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

10.5%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.1K · Liq $114.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Mississippi?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.5%

+1.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

70

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.1K · Liq $58.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Nidal Hasans execution be livestreamed in 2026?

Moved down 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.1%

-0.9 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

8

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.1K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

US Average Gas Price Is $5.000 or more on Election Day 2026?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.8%

-1.3 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.3%

+0.1 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

4

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $994.6 · Liq $665K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.6%

-0.1 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

1

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $968.2 · Liq $372.2K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

12.5%

+1.0 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

20

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $900.8 · Liq $95.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.8%

-0.1 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $873.8 · Liq $62.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?

Moved down 3.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.9%

-3.1 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

24

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 873 mana · Liq 200 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?

Moved down 8.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

60.0%

-8.4 pts
3

Trust

Low

Movement

85

Liquidity

55

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 858.4 mana · Liq 110 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Little 24h change — what little moved looks like thin-market noise.

46.8%

-0.2 pts
17

Trust

Low

Movement

81

Liquidity

59

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 838.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?

Moved up 7.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.7%

+7.7 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

50

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 824.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

86.5%

0.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $812.6 · Liq $73.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?

Moved down 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.4%

-0.8 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

8

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 704.7 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in December 2026?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

43.0%

+23.5 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

32

Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $695.6 · Liq $2.1 · Ends Jan 13, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Willl New Mexico be renamed to New America by EOY?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

6.1%

-0.1 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 676.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will the OpenAI spy get bail?

Moved down 9.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.0%

-9.7 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

89

Liquidity

58

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 652 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 24, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in November 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.5%

0.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

45

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol $647.8 · Liq $5.1K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

62.5%

0.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $600.7 · Liq $171.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiOtherDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Aug 1, 2027?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

49.0%

+1.5 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

29

Liquidity

58

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $592.2 · Liq $4.9K · Ends Aug 1, 2027

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $586.8 · Liq $10.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.6%

-0.1 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

1

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $573.2 · Liq $386.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.3%

+0.6 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

18

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $563.6 · Liq $54.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Independents win the Senate race in Montana?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

10.0%

-0.3 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

71

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $552.7 · Liq $63.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

79.0%

-7.0 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

53

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $543.7 · Liq $643.3 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Idaho Proposition 1 (reproductive freedom and privacy act) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.0%

-2.0 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

36

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 529.8 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan be livestreamed by the end of 2027?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.0%

-3.0 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 512.1 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.3%

-0.2 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $501.2 · Liq $113.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

US Average Gas Price Is $4.750 or more on any day in October 2026?

Moved down 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

4.2%

-0.8 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

17

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 501 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will France cut off funding to Ukraine in 2027?

Moved down 8.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

40.6%

-8.3 pts
26

Trust

Low

Movement

52

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 491.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

+0.1 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

1

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $486.8 · Liq $838.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Jersey?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

4.0%

+0.8 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $484.7 · Liq $45.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.0%

+0.2 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

6

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $484.2 · Liq $53.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.5%

0.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $438.1 · Liq $62.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.2%

+0.3 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

15

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $426.7 · Liq $42.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.8%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $381.5 · Liq $330.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiOtherDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

64.5%

0.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $359 · Liq $22.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2028

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.8%

+0.2 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

2

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $353.3 · Liq $148.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.5%

-0.1 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

65

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $350.8 · Liq $46.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will North Carolina's 3.5% cap on state income tax rate amendment be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

84.0%

0.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 350.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?

Moved down 6.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.7%

-6.3 pts
36

Trust

Low

Movement

45

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 329.9 mana · Liq 500 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $324.7 · Liq $864.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.5%

+3.0 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $311.9 · Liq $691.4 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.3%

+0.3 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

65

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $308.2 · Liq $48.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.9%

0.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

1

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $301 · Liq $337.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.8%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

71

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $295.9 · Liq $336.4K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

33.5%

+2.5 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

20

Liquidity

63

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $295.5 · Liq $8.2K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republican win the House race for SC-01?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

71.5%

0.0 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $282.2 · Liq $67.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will this market reach 100 unique traders by October 26, 2026?

Moved down 14.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

20.2%

-14.8 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

73

Liquidity

51

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 280.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.6%

-0.2 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

63

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $280 · Liq $40.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?

Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

41.0%

-8.5 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

78

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 277.3 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

35.2%

-0.3 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

65

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 274 mana · Liq 15K mana · Ends Jan 10, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.5%

+4.5 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

33

Liquidity

63

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $271.8 · Liq $5.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

89.6%

0.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 270.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in December 2026?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.5%

-1.5 pts
21

Trust

Low

Movement

24

Liquidity

48

Thin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $263.7 · Liq $951.4 · Ends Jan 13, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.0%

0.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $259.8 · Liq $342.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will I weigh >160lbs at the end of October?

Moved down 2.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

12.1%

-2.8 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

22

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 250 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Kathy Hochul outperform Letitia James?

Moved up 14.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

52.3%

+14.7 pts
19

Trust

Low

Movement

73

Liquidity

58

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 250 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

94.0%

-0.5 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

42

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $246.5 · Liq $749.4 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.5%

-6.0 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

41

Liquidity

61

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $243.8 · Liq $1.3K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.5%

-2.5 pts
5

Trust

Low

Movement

54

Liquidity

37

Thin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $243.8 · Liq $159.9 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.2 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $241.5 · Liq $319.6K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?

Moved up 8.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

72.0%

+8.3 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

52

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 240.8 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

14.5%

0.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $238.1 · Liq $3.6K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin's daily close on October 31, 2026 be above $85,000 (CoinGecko)?

Moved up 3.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

34.9%

+3.9 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

37

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 228.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.3%

-0.4 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $223.1 · Liq $139K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?

Moved down 5.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

24.4%

-5.6 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

39

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 220 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 6, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

54.3%

+0.8 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

15

Liquidity

63

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 220 mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Moved down 3.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

70.7%

-3.3 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

39

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 219.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

87.0%

-6.0 pts
14

Trust

Low

Movement

45

Liquidity

47

Thin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $218.8 · Liq $881.5 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will "Street Fighter" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi

Moved up 3.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.0%

+3.2 pts
19

Trust

Low

Movement

51

Liquidity

49

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 215.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By EOY 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

86.0%

-5.0 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

67

Liquidity

54

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 214.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

98.5%

+2.0 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $213.4 · Liq $3.6K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Troy Jackson win his hometown?

Moved up 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

69.9%

+1.2 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 213 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.4%

0.0 pts
62

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $210.7 · Liq $637.8K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will China impose new trade restrictions on Taiwan before October 31, 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.0%

-2.0 pts
36

Trust

Low

Movement

36

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 210.1 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will Zvi write a full report on Muse Wonder?

Moved down 2.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

16.6%

-2.8 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

36

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 205 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

70.0%

-2.5 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

20

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 204 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will GTA 6 be decompiled within a month of release

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

40.8%

+0.8 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

24

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 200.3 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 19, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

70.5%

-1.3 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

63

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 200 mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El Sayeds winning margin be greater than Jocelyn Bensons?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.9%

-2.1 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

38

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 200 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be a recession in 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

20.5%

0.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $197.5 · Liq $23.1K · Ends Jan 31, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

84.0%

+3.0 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 190.7 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.4000 or more on Election Day 2026?

Moved down 4.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

42.3%

-4.7 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

34

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 189.3 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Elon Musk give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year?

Moved down 24.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

25.6%

-24.4 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 182.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will there be a ALCS game 7 this year (2026)?

Moved down 38.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

11.5%

-38.5 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

52

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 179.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Colorado Amendment 87 (graduated income tax) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

20.0%

-3.0 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 177.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

KalshiOtherDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.3%

0.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $176.3 · Liq $30.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?

Moved down 13.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

18.4%

-13.4 pts
15

Trust

Low

Movement

70

Liquidity

51

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 175.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will Calvin Wang show up to 21W.023 on time?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

29.0%

0.0 pts
27

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

50

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 175.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

61.5%

-12.0 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

74

Liquidity

58

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $175.1 · Liq $692.7 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

3.5%

+2.0 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

27

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $174 · Liq $1.3K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.0%

-0.1 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

18

Liquidity

66

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $173.6 · Liq $55.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will California Proposition 41 (tax limits and special-tax audits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.0%

+1.0 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 172.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇫🇷🪧 Will France report 300,000+ protesters on at least 1 of the next 2 Saturdays (Oct 24 or Oct 31, 2026)?

Moved up 20.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

84.1%

+20.1 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

88

Liquidity

50

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 171.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 24, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

90.3%

-0.2 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

6

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $170.6 · Liq $72.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Pope Leon XIV in Argentina before 2027

Moved up 24.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

57.6%

+24.8 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

92

Liquidity

51

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 168.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

Diesel export ban before midterms?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.4%

0.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 165 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 2, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.0%

0.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 165 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 2, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

67

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $160.6 · Liq $90.6K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

89.5%

0.0 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $159.5 · Liq $152.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Mike Johnson be the Majority or Minority Leader in the House after the Midterms?

Moved down 6.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

39.0%

-6.2 pts
4

Trust

Low

Movement

91

Liquidity

56

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 156.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Jan 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Guillotines have a come back by 2030

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.5%

-0.2 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 150 mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2029

KalshiOtherDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.5%

-1.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

63

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $147 · Liq $6K · Ends Mar 1, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?

Moved up 6.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.0%

+6.9 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

46

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 145.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 27, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.5%

+4.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

30

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $132.6 · Liq $612.8 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will the left and right switch positions on AI?

Moved down 21.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

23.1%

-21.3 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

51

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 131.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Aug 13, 2036

KalshiOtherDeveloping

Will the President be impeached before May 1, 2027?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

38.0%

+5.0 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

40

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $130.1 · Liq $4.7K · Ends May 1, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

66.1%

-1.5 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 129.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

94.4%

+0.1 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

65

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $129.3 · Liq $44.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.2%

0.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

65

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $129 · Liq $46.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

22.5%

-1.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

62

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $128.4 · Liq $6.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Donald Trump make an endorsement or comment on the NZ election before polls close?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.2%

0.0 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

50

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 128 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 7, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrat Shomari Figures win Alabamas 2nd congressional district in 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

32.0%

+2.0 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 126.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Putin still be in power on January 1, 2029

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

80.0%

+9.0 pts
26

Trust

Low

Movement

55

Liquidity

47

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 126.4 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jan 1, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Democrats win Texas, Michigan, Alaska and Maine for Senate in 2026?

Moved down 5.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

45.8%

-5.8 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

69

Liquidity

56

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 126.2 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will my AI system dominate Astra and ProofCouncil?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.6%

+4.5 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

33

Liquidity

54

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 125.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.9%

-0.5 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 125 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Jan 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

30.0%

-2.0 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

21

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 122.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoLikely noise

Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD before the end of November

Moved up 28.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

83.1%

+28.3 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

53

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 121.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

10.5%

+5.0 pts
36

Trust

Low

Movement

36

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $117.6 · Liq $713.1 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early)

Moved down 8.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

39.8%

-8.4 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

86

Liquidity

50

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 116.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 22, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Missouri Amendment 3 (repealing 2024 abortion-rights amendment) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.4%

+0.5 pts
17

Trust

Low

Movement

74

Liquidity

56

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 113.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?

Moved down 32.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

55.2%

-32.3 pts
7

Trust

Low

Movement

94

Liquidity

51

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 110.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends May 13, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will any independent win a U.S. House seat in the 2026 elections?

Moved up 2.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

20.7%

+2.6 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

45

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 108.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.5%

+0.4 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

65

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $107.5 · Liq $73.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Anthropic release an image model before 2029?

Moved up 26.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

80.9%

+26.2 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

90

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 106 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.4%

+0.8 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 106 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Montana I-194 (Montana Plan ban on entity election spending) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

55.0%

-6.0 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

41

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 105.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Anthropic IPOs in 2026 AND has a closing market cap above 1.8trillion?

Moved down 4.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

47.2%

-4.7 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

34

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 105 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El-Sayed win by 7 points or more?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.0%

+1.7 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

14

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 104.7 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI release a new language model to the public by November 15, 2026?

Moved up 17.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

86.9%

+17.9 pts
5

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

49

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 102 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 16, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will MF DOOM be referenced in Avengers: Doomsday?

Moved up 9.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.9%

+9.8 pts
20

Trust

Low

Movement

58

Liquidity

50

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 101.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

19.7%

-1.5 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 1.1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will Yudkowsky substantially lower his P(doom) in response to Cammarata's "Neural Networks Are Already Clean"?

Moved down 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.7%

-1.2 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Steph Curry traded before new season starts?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.8%

-8.0 pts
20

Trust

Low

Movement

51

Liquidity

50

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 22, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.9%

-1.7 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

14

Liquidity

49

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Shane Gu live over 1000 years?

Moved down 15.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

12.9%

-15.2 pts
11

Trust

Low

Movement

74

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jul 1, 3311

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Bitcoin price reaches 100k USD by the end of October

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

-0.1 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Colorado Amendment 82 (constitutional right to natural gas) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 4.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

47.0%

-4.9 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

35

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 98.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? (Polymarket)

Moved down 3.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.6%

-3.4 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

26

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 98.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

28.6%

+3.0 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

49

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 95.8 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Jan 3, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Jersey?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.3%

-0.3 pts
53

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

63

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $91.2 · Liq $49.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?

Moved up 1.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.8%

+1.8 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

17

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 91 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in December 2026?

Moved up 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

52.5%

+27.0 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

31

Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $90.9 · Liq $29.7 · Ends Jan 13, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.9%

0.0 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

70

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $89.5 · Liq $503.9K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

97.5%

+2.0 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $89.4 · Liq $2.4K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $88 · Liq $1.1K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.0%

-2.0 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 87.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will the Titanic II set sail iin June 2027 as planned?

Moved down 16.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

30.1%

-16.8 pts
2

Trust

Low

Movement

85

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 86.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jun 30, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

23.4%

-4.5 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

33

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 82.6 mana · Liq 317 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

-0.2 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $80.7 · Liq $2.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.5%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $76.9 · Liq $1.1K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

13.5%

0.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $73.6 · Liq $3K · Ends Jan 20, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.7%

0.0 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

70

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $73.2 · Liq $201.7K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.8%

0.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $64.4 · Liq $346K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 20 UTC-12?

Moved down 2.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.4%

-2.4 pts
24

Trust

Low

Movement

42

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 62.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 20, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kentucky?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.3%

0.0 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

6

Liquidity

62

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $60.9 · Liq $24.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

6.7%

+0.2 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $57.6 · Liq $2.9K · Ends Jan 20, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Trump's next press secretary be a woman with blonde hair? Can be dyed or natural

Moved up 10.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

75.5%

+10.9 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

81

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 57.6 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jan 20, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.8%

-0.1 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $56.5 · Liq $1.9K · Ends Jan 20, 2029

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.2%

0.0 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

64

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $55.7 · Liq $68.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

13.5%

+2.0 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

83

Liquidity

47

Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $55.6 · Liq $557.1 · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be higher than $77,777 at the end of 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

73.2%

+1.5 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 54 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

If CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?

Moved up 19.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

69.2%

+19.2 pts
8

Trust

Low

Movement

82

Liquidity

46

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 53.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Tennessee?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.2%

0.0 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

64

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $53.2 · Liq $43.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.6%

0.0 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

63

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $51.2 · Liq $68.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By End of November 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

76.3%

+1.0 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

20

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 51 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will the party with the highest party vote %, supply the Prime Minister after the NZ election?

Moved down 3.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

63.9%

-3.1 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

24

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will CA prop 40 get >50% of the vote

Moved down 10.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

39.9%

-10.1 pts
4

Trust

Low

Movement

72

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.6%

-2.5 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

20

Liquidity

50

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 20, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

75.0%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will JerryRigEverything win his $10K bet against Palmer Luckey?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

80.0%

+0.8 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.4%

-1.3 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

50

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 500 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

AnyPS5 reaches 100% in October?

Moved up 2.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

54.2%

+2.3 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

19

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.2%

0.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

58

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $50 · Liq $40.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Russia attack Europe with drones before October 31?

Moved down 6.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.2%

-6.8 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

46

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 48 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 30, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

0.0 pts
66

Trust

Medium

Movement

0

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.7 · Liq $3M · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

🇺🇸 Will Trump meet Kim Jong Un before end of 2026? 🇰🇵

Moved down 1.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

26.8%

-1.2 pts
15

Trust

Low

Movement

61

Liquidity

48

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 47.4 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in October 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.5%

+0.5 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.1 · Liq $9.3K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Who will win the next presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.5%

+0.1 pts
58

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

69

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $46.7 · Liq $309.8K · Ends Nov 7, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Waymo expand it's LA service area by the end of 2026?

Moved down 8.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

18.4%

-8.1 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

84

Liquidity

49

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 44 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will I pass my Chemistry 1110 final?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

57.9%

-0.6 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

5

Liquidity

47

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 43 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 10, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

97.0%

-0.6 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

62

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.4 · Liq $32.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before the end of 2027?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

12.0%

+2.0 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

16

Liquidity

46

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 40.4 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic announce a new operating system for most of its AI agent workloads by April 30, 2027?

Moved down 10.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

23.4%

-10.1 pts
26

Trust

Low

Movement

59

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 40 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Apr 29, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will MNX commission a new longform piece about AI by a Manifold user before November?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

59.3%

-0.4 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 40 mana · Liq 6K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.5%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $39.4 · Liq $3.8K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.0%

+0.1 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

71

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36 · Liq $499.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in October 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

85.5%

0.0 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $34.9 · Liq $799.8 · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Massachusetts?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.7%

0.0 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $34.8 · Liq $42.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

95.6%

-0.5 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $33.6 · Liq $35.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Moved up 7.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

9.0%

+7.5 pts
10

Trust

Low

Movement

49

Liquidity

42

Thin marketLoosely priced

Inspect moveVol $31.8 · Liq $609.4 · Ends Oct 27, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kentucky?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.8%

+0.1 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

61

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $31 · Liq $28.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Illinois?

Moved up 1.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.1%

+1.1 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

58

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $26.1 · Liq $40.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Colorado?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.9%

0.0 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

57

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $12.2 · Liq $44.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Tennessee?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.6%

-0.3 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

59

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $9.8 · Liq $43.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oklahoma?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.9%

+0.1 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $8.9 · Liq $36.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Wyoming?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.0%

+0.2 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $6.9 · Liq $37.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Virginia?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

97.5%

-0.1 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $3.2 · Liq $48.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oklahoma?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.9%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

56

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $3.2 · Liq $36K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Oregon?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.5%

-0.1 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.9 · Liq $43.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in West Virginia?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

97.9%

-0.1 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.4 · Liq $42.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alabama?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

97.5%

+0.2 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

5

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $2.1 · Liq $35.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Delaware?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

97.8%

-0.5 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

6

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.7 · Liq $42.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Colorado?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.0%

0.0 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.5 · Liq $39.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Massachusetts?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.4%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.5 · Liq $43.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Rhode Island?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.4%

0.0 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.3 · Liq $51.6K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Mexico?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

97.2%

0.0 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $1.1 · Liq $41.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.1%

-0.4 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

6

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $0.5 · Liq $43.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Wyoming?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.7%

+0.1 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $0.2 · Liq $61.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

94.8%

-0.2 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

4

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $60.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $45.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

-0.1 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $52.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

96.9%

0.0 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

55

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $68.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

97.5%

0.0 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $25.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.3%

+0.2 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

8

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $59.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.1%

-0.3 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

3

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $39.1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.3%

-0.1 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

2

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $41.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.9%

+0.5 pts
25

Trust

Low

Movement

18

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $50.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.0%

+0.3 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

7

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $37.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.2%

-0.1 pts
27

Trust

Low

Movement

12

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $33.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.0%

-0.2 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

3

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $34.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.7%

+0.2 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

3

Liquidity

49

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $25.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Idaho?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.2%

0.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $38.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $46.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

7.5%

0.0 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $62.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.7%

0.0 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $55.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.1%

-0.1 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $41.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

0.0 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $41.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.3%

+0.1 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $43.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.0%

0.0 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $33K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.9%

0.0 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

49

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $27.4K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.4%

+0.1 pts
30

Trust

Low

Movement

6

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $48.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.5%

0.0 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $57.5K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

9.5%

0.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $74.8K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

97.0%

+0.3 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

7

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $26K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alabama?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.5%

-0.2 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

3

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $37.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.9%

-0.6 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

5

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $30K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Virginia?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

+0.1 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $67.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Oregon?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.7%

-0.1 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

48

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $39.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Delaware?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.0%

0.0 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

4

Liquidity

50

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $45.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in South Dakota?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $41.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratics win the Senate race in West Virginia?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

+0.1 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $40.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Rhode Island?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.1%

-0.1 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

1

Liquidity

53

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $75.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

0.0 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

8

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $41.2K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

KalshiPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.2%

0.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Tight spread
Limited dataThin market

Inspect moveVol $0 · Liq $39.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2027

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Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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