Risk briefing

Fed Rate & Macro Odds

Macro prediction markets translate complex economic questions — the next Fed decision, CPI surprises, recession risk — into a single probability you can read at a glance. These markets tend to be deeper and more efficient than niche ones, so moves often reflect genuine shifts in expectations following data releases or Fed communications. ProbCast tracks the rate-decision and macro contracts most watched by traders and surfaces when the implied path changes.