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Risk briefing

Fed Rate & Macro Odds

Macro prediction markets translate complex economic questions — the next Fed decision, CPI surprises, recession risk — into a single probability you can read at a glance. These markets tend to be deeper and more efficient than niche ones, so moves often reflect genuine shifts in expectations following data releases or Fed communications. ProbCast tracks the rate-decision and macro contracts most watched by traders and surfaces when the implied path changes.

Markets
54
Avg movement
34
Fast movers
9
Net direction
-23.1 pts

Top noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?

Moved down 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

17.5%

-16.0 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

65

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $2.3K · Liq $2.8K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?

Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

48.5%

-14.0 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

66

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $4.2K · Liq $4.4K · Ends Nov 10, 2026

Markets to watch

Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on

  • KalshiWill CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?17.5%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • KalshiWill CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?48.5%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • KalshiWill CPI rise more than 0.4% in October 2026?3.0%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • KalshiWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?52.5%
    Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • KalshiWill CPI rise more than 0.2% in December 2026?62.0%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $107.50 on October 26, 2026?40.0%
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

What moved today

Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

86.5%

+2.0 pts
89

Trust

High

Movement

41

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $628.4K · Liq $600.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

More noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in October 2026?

Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

3.0%

-6.5 pts
14

Trust

Low

Movement

95

Liquidity

60

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $1.8K · Liq $733.6 · Ends Nov 10, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Moved down 30.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

52.5%

-30.5 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

51

Tight spread
Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $989.3 · Liq $60.7 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in December 2026?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

62.0%

+9.0 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

91

Liquidity

52

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $109 · Liq $629 · Ends Jan 13, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $107.50 on October 26, 2026?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

40.0%

-10.0 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

89

Liquidity

54

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 226.7 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 26, 2026

Move feed

Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores

Kalshi24hLikely noisejust now
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?
83%53%-30.5 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 0
Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Kalshi24hLikely noisejust now
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?
73%90%+17.5 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 17
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Kalshi24hLikely noisejust now
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?
34%18%-16.0 pts
  • Volume 1.3× its 7-day average
  • Lowest level in 7 days
  • #2 Macro / Fed mover today
Low Trust · 16
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Kalshi24hLikely noisejust now
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?
63%49%-14.0 pts
  • Volume 3.9× its 7-day average
  • Lowest level in 7 days
  • Biggest Macro / Fed mover today
Low Trust · 16
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Kalshi24hLikely noisejust now
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in December 2026?
80%93%+13.0 pts
  • Volume 1.8× its 7-day average
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 15
Thin marketBig move, weak backing
Kalshi24hLikely noisejust now
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?
8%21%+12.5 pts

This market moved +12.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

Low Trust · 0
Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

All markets in this sector

Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed49%-14.0 pts$4.2K6616Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed18%-16.0 pts$2.3K6516Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed3%-6.5 pts$1.8K6014Likely noise
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed87%+2.0 pts$628.4K9089Confirmed move
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in December 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed62%+9.0 pts$109529Likely noise
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?PolymarketMacro / Fed4%+0.6 pts$71.2K8176Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed53%-30.5 pts$989.3510Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed62%+1.0 pts$8026120Likely noise
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed90%+17.5 pts$804.65817Likely noise
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $107.50 on October 26, 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / Fed40%-10.0 pts226.7 mana540Likely noise
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed55%-7.5 pts$4.6K6122Likely noise
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?PolymarketMacro / Fed35%-1.0 pts$59.2K7371Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in December 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed79%+6.5 pts$6635720Likely noise
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed14%-1.0 pts$363.9K8998Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in December 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed93%+13.0 pts$136.85215Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed34%+1.5 pts$804.55935Developing
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed0%0.0 pts$367K92100Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed13%-1.0 pts$64.8K8595Developing
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed15%-4.0 pts$6K6543Developing
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed0%0.0 pts$172.3K8992Developing
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed0%0.0 pts$150.8K9093Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed39%+5.0 pts$6.1K6948Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed76%0.0 pts$920.46645Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed83%+0.5 pts$3155937Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed88%+2.0 pts$34.7K8472Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed93%-4.0 pts$753.95837Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed13%-3.0 pts$64.16039Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed21%+12.5 pts$269.1340Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed3%+1.0 pts$198.55841Developing
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in December 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed92%+2.0 pts$402.95742Developing
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / Fed12%-3.0 pts258.3 mana5022Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed86%+3.5 pts$127.75842Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed22%0.0 pts$6.7K7258Developing
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed4%-3.0 pts$197.75944Developing
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed85%-2.5 pts$113.65439Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed47%+1.0 pts$845439Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed83%-2.5 pts$3895945Developing
Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / Fed83%-1.2 pts77.3 mana5743Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed65%+5.0 pts$825.8386Developing
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed4%+0.5 pts$137.45239Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed1%0.0 pts$78.27268Developing
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed92%+2.5 pts$108.85442Developing
Will there be a recession in 2027?KalshiMacro / Fed21%0.0 pts$644.46858Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed5%-0.5 pts$340.46252Developing
How high will unemployment get before 2027?KalshiMacro / Fed13%+1.5 pts$705545Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed2%0.0 pts$135.25951Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in December 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed12%-1.0 pts$86.45244Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed15%0.0 pts$73.45851Developing
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed48%-0.5 pts$80.85547Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed7%0.0 pts$365.25649Developing
Diesel export ban before midterms?ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / Fed5%0.0 pts167.9 mana5649Developing
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed99%0.0 pts$86.85649Developing
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in November 2026?KalshiMacro / Fed2%0.0 pts$81.65649Developing
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?KalshiMacro / Fed85%+1.5 pts$151.83012Developing

Highest volume

Where activity is concentrated in this sector

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed87%+2.0 pts$628.4K9089Confirmed move
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed0%0.0 pts$367K92100Developing
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed14%-1.0 pts$363.9K8998Developing
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed0%0.0 pts$172.3K8992Developing
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?PolymarketMacro / Fed0%0.0 pts$150.8K9093Developing
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?PolymarketMacro / Fed4%+0.6 pts$71.2K8176Developing

Venue disagreement

Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number

No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.

How to read this briefing

Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.

Read the scoring methodology

Frequently asked questions

ProbCastProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions or feedback? Contact us

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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