Will there be a recession in 2027?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 6:13 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 20.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $13.7K traded in the past 24 hours and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts.
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, a…
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 31, 2028 at 8:25 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 6:17 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting87%
- Stable consensus6%
- Thin-liquidity spike4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$13.7K
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$602K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Kalshi
- Open interest
- $313.9K
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 20.0%
- Best ask
- 21.0%
- 7-day range
- 20.5% – 20.5%
- Resolves
- Jan 31, 2028
- Resolution
- If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, a…