Risk briefing
Live odds on crypto outcomes — Bitcoin price levels, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades. These markets move 24/7 on thin liquidity, so ProbCast scores every move for liquidity and spread to separate a real repricing from thin-market noise.
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
Moved down 47.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
24.5%
-47.0 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
100
Liquidity
68
Inspect moveVol $88.3K · Liq $1.8K · Ends Nov 2, 2026
Moved up 55.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
67.5%
+55.0 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
100
Liquidity
77
Inspect moveVol $84.9K · Liq $19.9K · Ends Nov 2, 2026
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
Moved down 19.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
51.5%
-19.8 ptsTrust
Mixed
Movement
97
Liquidity
81
Inspect moveVol $76.4K · Liq $44.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
Moved down 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
71.9%
-25.8 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
100
Liquidity
69
Inspect moveVol $81.7K · Liq $21.1K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Moved up 35.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
47.3%
+35.8 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
100
Liquidity
71
Inspect moveVol $69.1K · Liq $27.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Moved down 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
5.0%
-23.5 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
100
Liquidity
74
Inspect moveVol $60.4K · Liq $24.1K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Moved up 19.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
23.3%
+19.9 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
100
Liquidity
74
Inspect moveVol $52.6K · Liq $22.9K · Ends Nov 2, 2026
Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores
This market moved +55 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved +55 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved -47 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved -47 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? | Polymarket | 50% | +37.4 pts | 47 | Developing |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | Polymarket | 0% | -0.2 pts | 77 | Developing |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? | Polymarket | 11% | -46.0 pts | 46 | Developing |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 99% | +15.5 pts | 19 | Likely noise |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | Polymarket | 2% | -10.2 pts | 53 | Developing |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? | Polymarket | 12% | +8.5 pts | 45 | Developing |
Live spot and model context for the price levels these markets ask about
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
A note on on-chain costs.Most crypto prediction markets settle on-chain — Polymarket on Polygon, with funds often bridged in from Ethereum. That means the real cost of entering or exiting a position isn’t just the market spread; it’s also network gas. Gas on Ethereum swings a lot depending on what you’re doing — a simple USDC transfer, a bridge, or a contract approval each cost very differently. If you’re sizing a trade, it’s worth checking Ethereum gas fees by transaction type before you move funds, since fees can quietly eat the edge on a small position.
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology