Risk briefing
Live odds on crypto outcomes — Bitcoin price levels, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades. These markets move 24/7 on thin liquidity, so ProbCast scores every move for liquidity and spread to separate a real repricing from thin-market noise.
Top: Ethereum price at Sep 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
48.5%
-1.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
43
Liquidity
76
Inspect moveVol $61K · Liq $35.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Moved down 1.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
0.3%
-1.6 ptsProbCast Trust
Watch Trust
Movement
35
Liquidity
80
Inspect moveVol $113.2K · Liq $41K · Ends Sep 12, 2026
Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
32.5%
+3.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Medium Trust
Movement
27
Liquidity
76
Inspect moveVol $79.6K · Liq $64K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
39.5%
-2.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Watch Trust
Movement
27
Liquidity
77
Inspect moveVol $33.5K · Liq $72.9K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
68.5%
+1.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Watch Trust
Movement
26
Liquidity
77
Inspect moveVol $26.7K · Liq $68K · Ends Oct 1, 2026
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
Moved down 50.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
1.5%
-50.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
99
Liquidity
47
Inspect moveVol $3.8K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 12, 2026
Moved up 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
60.5%
+13.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
94
Liquidity
45
Inspect moveVol $6.6K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 12, 2026
Moved down 7.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
3.4%
-7.1 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
84
Liquidity
81
Inspect moveVol $146.6K · Liq $36.9K · Ends Sep 12, 2026
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
5.5%
-5.0 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
84
Liquidity
77
Inspect moveVol $83.4K · Liq $29K · Ends Sep 12, 2026
Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
2.0%
-3.5 ptsProbCast Trust
Low Trust
Movement
62
Liquidity
46
Inspect moveVol $6.1K · Liq $0 · Ends Sep 12, 2026
Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 12? | Polymarket | 3% | -7.1 pts | 33 | Likely noise |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12? | Polymarket | 98% | +2.6 pts | 52 | Developing |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 12? | Polymarket | 0% | -1.6 pts | 58 | Confirmed move |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 12? | Polymarket | 100% | 0.0 pts | 68 | Developing |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 12? | Polymarket | 100% | +0.7 pts | 64 | Developing |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12? | Polymarket | 6% | -5.0 pts | 31 | Likely noise |
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
A note on on-chain costs.Most crypto prediction markets settle on-chain — Polymarket on Polygon, with funds often bridged in from Ethereum. That means the real cost of entering or exiting a position isn’t just the market spread; it’s also network gas. Gas on Ethereum swings a lot depending on what you’re doing — a simple USDC transfer, a bridge, or a contract approval each cost very differently. If you’re sizing a trade, it’s worth checking Ethereum gas fees by transaction type before you move funds, since fees can quietly eat the edge on a small position.
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology