PolymarketMeaningful$285.2K 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?59.2%-1.4 pts
Watch Trust · 57
Fast Mover
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Risk briefing
Live odds on crypto outcomes — Bitcoin price levels, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades. These markets move 24/7 on thin liquidity, so ProbCast scores every move for liquidity and spread to separate a real repricing from thin-market noise.
Median path + low/high band over the next 720days, anchored to today's spot — vessel-shape analog model.
Illustrative model projection shown for context only — not a forecast, price prediction, or investment advice.
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
Aggregate movement and net direction across this category
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
No noisy moves flagged in this category right now.
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
| Market | Venue | Prob | Δ 24h | Trust | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Polymarket | 100% | -0.1 pts | 77 | Watch |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 62 | Watch |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? | Polymarket | 100% | 0.0 pts | 63 | Watch |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 62 | Watch |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? | Polymarket | 100% | 0.0 pts | 62 | Watch |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? | Polymarket | 0% | 0.0 pts | 61 | Watch |
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology