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Risk briefing
Live odds on crypto outcomes — Bitcoin price levels, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades. These markets move 24/7 on thin liquidity, so ProbCast scores every move for liquidity and spread to separate a real repricing from thin-market noise.
Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score
Where activity is concentrated in this sector
Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported
No meaningful moves in this category right now.
Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution
No noisy moves flagged in this category right now.
Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number
No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.
Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on
No thin or stale markets flagged in this category right now.
A note on on-chain costs.Most crypto prediction markets settle on-chain — Polymarket on Polygon, with funds often bridged in from Ethereum. That means the real cost of entering or exiting a position isn’t just the market spread; it’s also network gas. Gas on Ethereum swings a lot depending on what you’re doing — a simple USDC transfer, a bridge, or a contract approval each cost very differently. If you’re sizing a trade, it’s worth checking Ethereum gas fees by transaction type before you move funds, since fees can quietly eat the edge on a small position.
Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.
Read the scoring methodology