Bitcoin above 100k before July 2027?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 2:31 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 55.1% (up from 52.8% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ50 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $100,000.00 USD at any point before July 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $100,000.00 USD at any point before July 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. The price of Bitcoin will be verified using the historical daily data, candle charts, or transaction records from major, reputable cryptocurrency aggregators and exchanges: CoinGecko Bitcoin Price Chart Yahoo Finance BTC-USD CoinMarketCap Bitcoin Data For resolution purposes, a transaction or index price of at least $100,000.00 USD must be observed on a high-volume spot exchange (such as Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance) or reflected in the daily high of a major aggregator. Extreme outlier "flash spikes" that occur strictly on a single minor exchange due to low liquidity or system errors will not trigger a YES resolution if they are not reflected on major global spot platforms.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 2:43 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ50
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ2K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 55.1%
- 7-day range
- 52.8% – 55.1%
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2027