ProbCast.coProbCast.coOdds Reliability
HomeTodayMarketsCryptoAccuracyContact
⌘K
Checking…

Risk briefing

AI & Tech Prediction Markets

AI and tech prediction markets price questions like whether a frontier model ships by a date, whether a benchmark gets beaten, or how a major product launch lands. These markets are newer and often thinner than macro or politics, so a single informed trader can move them meaningfully. ProbCast's liquidity adjustment is especially useful here, helping you tell a genuine consensus shift from low-volume noise.

Markets
32
Avg movement
33
Fast movers
4
Net direction
-4.4 pts

Top noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will the left and right switch positions on AI?

Moved down 15.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

27.5%

-15.6 pts
1

Trust

Low

Movement

88

Liquidity

51

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 124.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Aug 13, 2036

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

If CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?

Moved up 19.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

69.2%

+19.2 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

88

Liquidity

46

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 53.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

Markets to watch

Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on

  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill the left and right switch positions on AI?27.5%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyIf CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?69.2%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?28.1%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyGPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?25.4%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldPlay moneyWill Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?62.7%
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing
  • KalshiBest AI on Dec 31, 2026?51.8%
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing

More noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?

Moved down 7.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

28.1%

-7.3 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

81

Liquidity

47

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 25 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?

Moved down 4.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

25.4%

-4.6 pts
23

Trust

Low

Movement

77

Liquidity

66

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 6.4K mana · Liq 1.5K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?

Moved up 7.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

62.7%

+7.7 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

67

Liquidity

55

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 824.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

KalshiAI / TechLikely noise

Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?

Moved up 5.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

51.8%

+5.2 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

65

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $12.6K · Liq $11.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Move feed

Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores

ManifoldPlay money24hLikely noisejust now
If CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?
50%69%+19.2 pts
  • Volume 1.3× its 7-day average
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 6
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
ManifoldPlay money24hLikely noisejust now
Will the left and right switch positions on AI?
43%27%-15.6 pts
  • Volume 1.3× its 7-day average
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 1
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
ManifoldPlay money24hDevelopingjust now
Will Anthropic announce a new operating system for most of its AI agent workloads by April 30, 2027?
33%23%-10.1 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 26
Thin market
Polymarket24hDevelopingjust now
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
56%64%+8.0 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
Mixed Trust · 48
Thin market
ManifoldPlay money24hDevelopingjust now
Steph Curry traded before new season starts?
17%9%-8.0 pts
  • Lowest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 20
Thin marketResolving soon
ManifoldPlay money24hLikely noisejust now
Will Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?
55%63%+7.7 pts
  • Volume 2.9× its 7-day average
  • Highest level in 7 days
Low Trust · 18
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

All markets in this sector

Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score

Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?KalshiAI / Tech52%+5.2 pts$12.6K7634Likely noise
GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech25%-4.6 pts6.4K mana6623Likely noise
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech64%+8.0 pts$67.7K7648Developing
Will the left and right switch positions on AI?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech27%-15.6 pts124.3 mana511Likely noise
If CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech69%+19.2 pts53.9 mana466Likely noise
Will Pangram detect Deft AI by end of October?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech28%-7.3 pts25 mana479Likely noise
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech77%+2.0 pts$44.1K7753Developing
Will Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech63%+7.7 pts824.5 mana5518Likely noise
Will OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech27%-3.1 pts873 mana5836Developing
Will my AI system dominate Astra and ProofCouncil?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech46%+4.5 pts125.6 mana549Likely noise
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?PolymarketAI / Tech18%-1.0 pts$91.3K8083Developing
Will Anthropic announce a new operating system for most of its AI agent workloads by April 30, 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech23%-10.1 pts40 mana4826Developing
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?PolymarketAI / Tech10%0.0 pts$132.9K8489Developing
Will GTA 6 be decompiled within a month of releaseManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech42%-3.8 pts522.9 mana6042Developing
Steph Curry traded before new season starts?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech9%-8.0 pts100 mana5020Developing
Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech18%-1.6 pts237.8 mana5436Developing
Will Anthropic release an image model before 2029?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech81%+6.4 pts106 mana5024Developing
Anthropic IPOs in 2026 AND has a closing market cap above 1.8trillion?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech47%-4.7 pts105 mana5235Developing
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech34%-1.1 pts13.1K mana6955Developing
Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech11%+0.3 pts2.3K mana6248Developing
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech71%-1.3 pts200 mana6351Developing
Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech15%-1.3 pts50 mana5037Developing
AnyPS5 reaches 100% in October?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech54%+2.3 pts50 mana5341Developing
Will the OpenAI spy get bail?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech29%+2.4 pts252 mana5333Developing
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech36%+0.9 pts92 mana5949Developing
Guillotines have a come back by 2030ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech19%-0.2 pts150 mana6253Developing
Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech88%+0.8 pts100 mana5647Developing
Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech54%+0.1 pts70 mana5850Developing
Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech18%-0.3 pts50 mana5648Developing
Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech75%0.0 pts50 mana5549Developing
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech24%-0.2 pts25 mana5347Developing
Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech24%0.0 pts222 mana5641Developing

Highest volume

Where activity is concentrated in this sector

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?PolymarketAI / Tech10%0.0 pts$132.9K8489Developing
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?PolymarketAI / Tech18%-1.0 pts$91.3K8083Developing
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech64%+8.0 pts$67.7K7648Developing
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech77%+2.0 pts$44.1K7753Developing
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?ManifoldPlay moneyAI / Tech34%-1.1 pts13.1K mana6955Developing
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?KalshiAI / Tech52%+5.2 pts$12.6K7634Likely noise

What moved today

Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported

No meaningful moves in this category right now.

Venue disagreement

Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number

No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.

How to read this briefing

Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.

Read the scoring methodology

Frequently asked questions

ProbCastProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions or feedback? Contact us

TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyAboutContactCoverageMeta's ArenaTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Contact us