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Hot Markets
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?41%▲30.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲9.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼14.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%▼13.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%▼2.6Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?56%▼1.8Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲9.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96%▲81.5Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?8%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▲11.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202689%▼3.8Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%▼3.9Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?100%▲1.7Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5%▲1.4🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?60%▲14.1
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?41%▲30.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲9.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼14.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%▼13.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%▼2.6Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?56%▼1.8Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲9.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96%▲81.5Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?8%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▲11.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202689%▼3.8Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%▼3.9Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?100%▲1.7Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5%▲1.4🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?60%▲14.1

Risk briefing

AI & Tech Prediction Markets

AI and tech prediction markets price questions like whether a frontier model ships by a date, whether a benchmark gets beaten, or how a major product launch lands. These markets are newer and often thinner than macro or politics, so a single informed trader can move them meaningfully. ProbCast's liquidity adjustment is especially useful here, helping you tell a genuine consensus shift from low-volume noise.

Markets
35
Avg movement
40
Fast movers
7
Net direction
+50.8 pts
Sector pulse

AI / Tech

+50.8
35
Markets
40
Avg move
7
Fast

Top: Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Markets to watch

Thin markets and stale prices where the read is fragile — track, do not rely on

  • PolymarketWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96.0%
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldOpenai Astra publically available before September 7th 202688.5%
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldWill Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 86822.0%
    Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldWill OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?35.2%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldWill the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?32.7%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing
  • ManifoldWill OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware35.0%
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Top noisy moves

Large shifts on thin markets, wide spreads, or stale prices — interpret with caution

PolymarketAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Moved up 81.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

96.0%

+81.5 pts
5

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $153.1K · Liq $14.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

88.5%

-3.8 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

70

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ23.2K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 6, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

Moved down 12.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

22.0%

-12.6 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

95

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ113.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?

Moved down 12.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.2%

-12.9 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

94

Liquidity

52

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ127.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Moved up 5.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

32.7%

+5.6 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

88

Liquidity

61

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.1K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.0%

-15.0 pts
3

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

47

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ63.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

Move feed

Notable probability moves with derived context and trust scores

Polymarket1hLikely noisejust now
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
10%96%+86.0 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
  • #2 AI / Tech mover today
Low Trust · 5
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Polymarket6hLikely noisejust now
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
13%96%+82.6 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
  • #2 AI / Tech mover today
Low Trust · 5
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Polymarket24hLikely noisejust now
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
15%96%+81.5 pts
  • Highest level in 7 days
  • #2 AI / Tech mover today
Low Trust · 5
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Manifold1hLikely noisejust now
Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026
52%89%+36.5 pts

This market moved +36.5 percentage points in 1h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

Low Trust · 9
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Manifold6hLikely noisejust now
Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026
73%89%+15.8 pts

This market moved +15.8 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

Low Trust · 9
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing
Manifold24hLikely noisejust now
Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware
50%35%-15.0 pts
  • Volume 1.9× its 7-day average
Low Trust · 3
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

All markets in this sector

Every tracked market in this category, ranked by Meaningful Move Score

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech56%-1.8 pts$111K7853Developing
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech96%+81.5 pts$153.1K765Likely noise
Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026ManifoldAI / Tech89%-3.8 ptsṀ23.2K709Likely noise
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech100%+1.7 pts$80.8K7945Developing
Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?ManifoldAI / Tech33%+5.6 ptsṀ1.1K618Likely noise
Will OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech35%-12.9 ptsṀ127.4528Likely noise
Rogue AIs before 2028?ManifoldAI / Tech65%+4.9 ptsṀ1.4K6827Likely noise
Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868ManifoldAI / Tech22%-12.6 ptsṀ113.4440Likely noise
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech100%+1.0 pts$32.1K7642Developing
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech100%+1.4 pts$39.9K7753Developing
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech86%-1.0 pts$172.8K8173Developing
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech12%+1.0 pts$129.8K8172Developing
Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardwareManifoldAI / Tech35%-15.0 ptsṀ63.1473Likely noise
Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?ManifoldAI / Tech97%+0.6 ptsṀ11.9K6749Developing
Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?ManifoldAI / Tech13%-0.7 ptsṀ2.5K6345Developing
Assortative mating of embryonically-selected individualsManifoldAI / Tech50%+11.0 ptsṀ100440Likely noise
Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier ModelManifoldAI / Tech9%0.0 ptsṀ200430Likely noise
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech45%-7.5 ptsṀ269.74915Developing
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant cert or agree to hear arguments in the Texas DACA case by February 27, 2027? (2/27/27)ManifoldAI / Tech11%-9.0 ptsṀ210439Likely noise
Will Adam Riess win a second Nobel prize?ManifoldAI / Tech27%+10.1 ptsṀ99.5416Likely noise
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech0%-0.1 pts$47.2K7756Developing
OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech99%+0.7 ptsṀ1.9K6453Developing
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?ManifoldAI / Tech25%+2.1 ptsṀ5705428Developing
Person alive now becomes functionally immortalManifoldAI / Tech26%-3.6 ptsṀ78.14114Developing
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?ManifoldAI / Tech83%-2.7 ptsṀ83.24620Developing
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?ManifoldAI / Tech44%+2.7 ptsṀ1735016Developing
OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech82%-2.1 ptsṀ144.64219Developing
Pangram say average feed <50% human by 1 March 2027?ManifoldAI / Tech35%-1.7 ptsṀ504522Developing
Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech99%+1.0 ptsṀ135.34423Developing
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech58%0.0 ptsṀ20.43716Developing
Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November?ManifoldAI / Tech44%0.0 ptsṀ21.33717Developing
Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?ManifoldAI / Tech50%0.0 ptsṀ15.14627Developing
Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech32%0.0 ptsṀ19.93819Developing
Will it Snow in September in Houston?ManifoldAI / Tech6%0.0 ptsṀ55.54123Developing
Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?ManifoldAI / Tech55%0.0 ptsṀ13.54123Developing

Highest volume

Where activity is concentrated in this sector

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech86%-1.0 pts$172.8K8173Developing
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech96%+81.5 pts$153.1K765Likely noise
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech12%+1.0 pts$129.8K8172Developing
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech56%-1.8 pts$111K7853Developing
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech100%+1.7 pts$80.8K7945Developing
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?PolymarketAI / Tech0%-0.1 pts$47.2K7756Developing

What moved today

Meaningful moves in this sector — probability shifts that are liquidity supported

No meaningful moves in this category right now.

Venue disagreement

Same question, different price across venues — a trust signal to weigh before trusting the number

No matched cross-venue questions disagree by more than 4 points here — venues are effectively in agreement on this sector.

How to read this briefing

Every move above is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust so you can tell a meaningful move from a noisy one. Thin markets, wide spreads, and stale prices are labelled rather than hidden. This is a read-only intelligence layer over public prediction markets — informational only, never trading or betting advice.

Read the scoring methodology

Frequently asked questions

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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