Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters. Resolve to NO if this does not happen. [Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.] To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way. Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue. No strategic assistance. The AI is allowed to practice, explore and use its own notes from prior attempts, or to read things on its own that it finds on the internet, so long as this is not directed beyond some form of 'go and git gud.' Runs must average less than 5 hours of clock time. If there is an accusation that this has happened by the deadline, but we need more time to prove it, I will give it time. I will use my best judgment as to whether this has happened and I am persuaded that it could sustain such a win rate, but if there is a serious dispute I will resolve with a 3-judge AI panel (Anthropic, OpenAI and Google) based on the exact wording here. Created as per: Vlad Ciobanu (@vlad3ciobanu) on X and others claim that such things might be doable. [link preview]