Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Polymarket Crypto 59% $285.2K 83 57 Meaningful Will the S&P500 close at 7650.00 or higher in June 2026? Manifold Macro / Fed 38% $562 59 3 Noisy US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Polymarket Politics 9% $1.6M 92 76 Meaningful Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Polymarket Politics 60% $356.1K 86 58 Meaningful Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Polymarket Politics 41% $320.4K 87 58 Meaningful Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%? Manifold Macro / Fed 67% $84.3 50 0 Noisy Will artificial intelligence change everyday life more than the internet did Manifold Macro / Fed 52% $324.2 53 1 Noisy US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Polymarket Politics 50% $611.6K 85 71 Meaningful Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Politics 1% $1.8M 93 81 Watch Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Polymarket Crypto 80% $233K 81 56 Meaningful US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Polymarket Politics 24% $459.4K 88 76 Meaningful Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Polymarket Politics 21% $296.3K 84 71 Meaningful Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats? Manifold Politics 33% $755.5 61 12 Noisy Will Hunter Biden run for US Congress or President during his lifetime? Manifold Politics 31% $623 59 11 Noisy US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Polymarket Politics 28% $185.5K 84 73 Meaningful Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Polymarket Macro / Fed 17% $316.2K 88 78 Watch US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Polymarket Politics 1% $850.8K 92 71 Watch Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Polymarket Macro / Fed 2% $288.2K 88 79 Watch Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Polymarket Crypto 50% $234.1K 81 71 Meaningful Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime? Manifold Politics 26% $716 60 14 Noisy Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 77% $29 24 0 Noisy Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket Macro / Fed 0% $1.2M 95 89 Watch Cats: The Jellicle Ball wins 2026 Tony Award for Best Revival of a Musical Manifold Geopolitics 39% $5.3K 69 26 Watch Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028? Manifold Macro / Fed 57% $176 56 12 Noisy Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket Macro / Fed 0% $864.7K 93 87 Watch Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket Macro / Fed 1% $653.4K 92 86 Watch Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Polymarket Politics 2% $269.4K 91 85 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 39% $33 25 0 Noisy Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Polymarket Politics 0% $678.5K 90 85 Watch Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket Macro / Fed 0% $490.6K 91 86 Watch Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket Macro / Fed 99% $443.8K 92 86 Watch Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Polymarket Crypto 100% $232.6K 90 85 Watch Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Polymarket Politics 3% $201.8K 87 81 Watch US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $201.4K 83 77 Watch Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Polymarket Macro / Fed 1% $180.8K 90 85 Watch Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Polymarket Crypto 100% $2.5M 93 77 Watch Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Polymarket Macro / Fed 0% $477.3K 89 84 Watch Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Polymarket Politics 4% $280.2K 85 82 Watch Will Alberta join the US? Polymarket Macro / Fed 4% $237.8K 84 80 Watch US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Polymarket Politics 40% $227.5K 85 82 Watch Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Polymarket Crypto 0% $201.7K 85 82 Watch Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028? Manifold Macro / Fed 38% $306 57 28 Watch Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month? Manifold AI / Tech 20% $29.3 47 17 Watch Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Polymarket Politics 77% $210.8K 82 68 Watch Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Polymarket Crypto 40% $207.4K 82 79 Watch Will May 2026 U.S. manufacturing output rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? Manifold Macro / Fed 61% $28.4 47 7 Noisy Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Polymarket Crypto 2% $192.2K 81 55 Watch Will Graham Platner Drop out of the Maine Senate Race? Manifold Politics 14% $3.4K 64 38 Watch Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juni Manifold Geopolitics 29% $114.8 50 22 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Polymarket Crypto 0% $229.7K 82 69 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Polymarket Crypto 0% $193.8K 83 70 Watch Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027? Manifold Macro / Fed 35% $640.1 59 33 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 73% $54 25 0 Noisy Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Polymarket Crypto 100% $431.3K 80 63 Watch Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Politics 0% $430.5K 80 63 Watch Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? Polymarket Politics 0% $775.2K 80 58 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $507.1K 78 62 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $422.7K 79 62 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 100% $385.8K 79 62 Watch US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Polymarket Crypto 3% $271K 78 61 Watch Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO? Manifold Macro / Fed 42% $173 56 32 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 59% $7 21 0 Noisy Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? Polymarket Politics 0% $392.8K 79 57 Watch Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Polymarket Geopolitics 0% $371.2K 77 61 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $320.5K 77 61 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $297.9K 76 60 Watch Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Polymarket Geopolitics 0% $287K 76 60 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 100% $278.8K 77 61 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $244.6K 76 60 Watch Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $229.2K 76 60 Watch Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Polymarket Crypto 0% $219.1K 76 60 Watch Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Polymarket Geopolitics 100% $253.9K 75 60 Watch Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Polymarket Geopolitics 0% $196.8K 80 48 Watch Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Polymarket Politics 0% $234.5K 76 50 Watch Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Polymarket Politics 21% $208.4K 70 55 Watch Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027? Kalshi Geopolitics 13% $1K 50 10 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 6% $840.9 50 1 Watch Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever? Manifold Geopolitics 66% $103.2 50 30 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 19% $14.9K 60 25 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 2% $7.7K 57 21 Watch Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? Kalshi Politics 63% $1.4K 53 18 Watch Before 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access? Manifold Crypto 22% $905 60 44 Watch Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war? Manifold Geopolitics 43% $550 59 43 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 5% $8.7K 60 28 Watch Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028? Kalshi Geopolitics 25% $1.1K 46 13 Watch Will Ryan Strophy get a girlfriend by the end of June? Manifold Macro / Fed 1% $895 56 41 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 41% $247 27 0 Watch Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive? Manifold Macro / Fed 57% $150 56 41 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 3% $7.1K 60 29 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 2% $3.3K 58 27 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 5% $3.2K 59 28 Watch Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? Kalshi Politics 7% $1.4K 54 22 Watch Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? Kalshi Politics 30% $705.7 51 19 Watch Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? Kalshi Politics 59% $594.7 52 20 Watch Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression Manifold Macro / Fed 50% $111 59 33 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 17% $4.3K 58 28 Watch Will Silver drop below $65 per ounce by close of market on Friday June 12? Manifold Macro / Fed 41% $215.6 56 31 Watch Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation) Manifold Macro / Fed 5% $60.1 57 32 Watch Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election? Manifold Politics 25% $10 53 39 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 1% $38.9K 57 27 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 1% $28.3K 57 27 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 2% $1.5K 57 27 Watch Will I pass my Power BI PL-300 exam on first attempt? Manifold Macro / Fed 60% $168.1 51 38 Watch Will I get a bf before I graduate high school? Manifold Macro / Fed 29% $144 51 38 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 1% $667.8 55 26 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 3% $491.1 54 25 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 1% $316 53 24 Watch Gold price above 4,750.00 in June 2026 Manifold Macro / Fed 25% $75 49 36 Watch Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%? Manifold Macro / Fed 20% $38.4 48 36 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 1% $2.3K 48 7 Watch Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10? Manifold Macro / Fed 25% $141 51 28 Watch Which country will be the most powerful in 2050 Manifold Macro / Fed 63% $30 47 35 Watch Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026? Kalshi Geopolitics 1% $30 46 17 Watch Will someone break the Usain Bolt World Record in the 100 Meter Dash at Enhanced Games before 2032? Manifold Macro / Fed 41% $22 46 34 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 70% $21 24 0 Watch Will May 2026 U.S. new home sales be at least 650,000 (SAAR)? Manifold Macro / Fed 35% $18.7 46 34 Watch Will May 2026 U.S. durable goods orders rise at least 1.0% month-over-month? Manifold Macro / Fed 32% $17.8 46 34 Watch Will Russia control Slavyansk by the end of 2029? Manifold Macro / Fed 46% $15 45 34 Watch Will SpaceX retail allocation be fully subscribed at 30%+ of initial offering? Manifold Macro / Fed 46% $14.3 45 34 Watch Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month? Manifold Macro / Fed 41% $13.3 45 34 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 2% $577.5 51 23 Watch Who will win the next presidential election? Kalshi Politics 0% $154.3 51 23 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 3% $97.1 38 0 Watch Melbourne Auction clearance rates fall below 50% this weekend. Manifold Macro / Fed 73% $63 49 26 Watch Will @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031 Manifold Macro / Fed 45% $10 44 33 Watch Will June in Boston 2026 be one of the top 3 warmest Junes ever? Manifold Geopolitics 55% $10 44 33 Watch Will the President be impeached before Sep 1, 2026? Kalshi Politics 1% $2.4K 49 21 Watch Will El Niño be declared before December 2026? Manifold Macro / Fed 87% $500 49 21 Watch Will Trump go a day in June without insulting someone? Manifold Macro / Fed 52% $7 43 32 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 55% $204 45 19 Watch Feature movie about the Bricks and Minifigs/Reckless Ben dispute announced by EoY 2027 Manifold Macro / Fed 29% $0 45 19 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 59% $72 35 0 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 6% $14K 49 6 Watch Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 1% $1.1K 47 10 Watch Will there be rain during the Monaco GP? Manifold Macro / Fed 36% $110 41 16 Watch Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games Manifold Macro / Fed 6% $91 41 16 Watch Will "Agent Foundations Reminds Me of Continental P..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? Manifold Macro / Fed 16% $20 41 16 Watch Silver price above 80.000 in June 2026 Manifold Macro / Fed 50% $0 42 16 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 18% $2.6K 46 4 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 4% $2.1K 46 4 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 13% $1.8K 45 4 Watch Will 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026? Manifold Macro / Fed 20% $100 41 6 Watch Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art? Manifold Macro / Fed 48% $46.7 39 14 Watch Will May 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)? Manifold Macro / Fed 64% $34.8 38 14 Watch Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026? Manifold Macro / Fed 54% $31.7 38 14 Watch Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026 Manifold Macro / Fed 36% $25 38 14 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $119,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 10% $737.3 43 2 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $129,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 8% $268.8 41 1 Watch Will Bitcoin be above $139,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? Kalshi Crypto 7% $247 40 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 61% $144 27 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 55% $79 26 0 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 2% $26 39 4 Watch Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 99% $23 38 4 Watch Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in May 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 100% $18 38 4 Watch Will Trump recognize Somaliland? Kalshi Geopolitics 15% $125 33 0 Watch Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 44% $684 31 0 Watch Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in July 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 43% $368.1 31 0 Watch Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in July 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 54% $261 30 0 Watch Ethereum price at Jun 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT? Kalshi Crypto 1% $5 32 0 Watch Gold price above 5,100.00 in June 2026 Manifold Macro / Fed 18% $0 31 0 Watch Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House? Kalshi Politics 80% $158.5 28 0 Watch Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in July 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 4% $20 28 0 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 76% $14 28 0 Watch Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in July 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 36% $34 25 0 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 49% $5 26 0 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 22% $1 25 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 68% $26 23 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 88% $24 23 0 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 61% $14 23 0 Watch Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 35% $3 19 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 89% $2 19 0 Watch Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in July 2026? Kalshi Macro / Fed 31% $1 19 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 91% $1 18 0 Watch Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? Kalshi Macro / Fed 90% $1 18 0 Watch