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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?41%▲30.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲9.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼14.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%▼13.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%▼2.6Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?56%▼1.8Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲9.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96%▲81.5Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?8%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▲11.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202689%▼3.8Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%▼3.9Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?100%▲1.7Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5%▲1.4🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?60%▲14.1
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?41%▲30.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲9.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼14.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%▼13.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%▼2.6Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?56%▼1.8Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲9.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?96%▲81.5Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?8%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▲11.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202689%▼3.8Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%▼3.9Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?100%▲1.7Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5%▲1.4🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?60%▲14.1
Today’s read — 8 real moves · 8 settlementsRead it

Top Movers

Every tracked market ranked by how much its probability moved, adjusted for liquidity so thin-market noise doesn't dominate. Use the filters to isolate trustworthy signals.

Showing 345 markets, ranked by Meaningful Move Score. Change badges show the 24h window.

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Moved up 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

40.5%

+30.0 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $142.8K · Liq $52K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

50.5%

+9.0 pts
76

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

76

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $744.2K · Liq $637.7K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

68.5%

-14.0 pts
59

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

89

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $118.8K · Liq $56.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

48.5%

-10.0 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

69

Liquidity

92

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $1.4M · Liq $649K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Moved down 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

49.5%

-13.5 pts
60

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

79

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $83.8K · Liq $35.9K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 2.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

6.2%

-2.6 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

95

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $30.2K · Liq $80.3K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Moved down 1.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.5%

-1.8 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

80

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $111K · Liq $66.4K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

49.5%

+9.0 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $64.3K · Liq $121.1K · Ends Dec 8, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Moved up 81.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

96.0%

+81.5 pts
5

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $153.1K · Liq $14.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

8.5%

+2.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

83

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $190.5K · Liq $22.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?

Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

54.5%

+11.0 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

75

Liquidity

76

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $67.6K · Liq $53.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

88.5%

-3.8 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

70

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ23.2K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 6, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Moved down 3.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

3.5%

-3.9 pts
72

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

57

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $287.7K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.9%

+1.7 pts
45

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

67

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $80.8K · Liq $17.9K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

5.1%

+1.4 pts
72

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

52

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $78K · Liq $115.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

Moved up 14.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

59.7%

+14.1 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

99

Liquidity

57

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ711.5 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday?

Moved down 14.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

50.2%

-14.8 pts
1

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.3K · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

14.5%

-3.0 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

33

Liquidity

94

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $2M · Liq $995K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

0.6%

-7.0 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

82

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $85.3K · Liq $10.8K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

33.5%

+3.5 pts
29

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

73

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $25K · Liq $10.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will French people with enterprise gpt access be able to access Astra / GPT-6 before the 7th of September 00:01 UTC

Moved up 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

45.4%

+24.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

53

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ280.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 6, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% per year by the end of 2033?

Moved up 68.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

98.6%

+68.8 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

52

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ158.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2033

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

71.5%

+6.0 pts
76

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

41

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $254.7K · Liq $111.6K · Ends Dec 8, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?

Moved down 6.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

8.6%

-6.1 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

48

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $72K · Liq $66.3K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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