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Today’s read — 8 real moves · 3 venue disagreements · 8 settlementsRead it

Top Movers

Every tracked market, ranked by how much it moved, with thin-market noise pushed down. How scores work →

439 markets · ranked by Meaningful Move Score · 24h changes

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

24.5%

-10.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

78

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $73.8K · Liq $87K · Ends Nov 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.5%

-7.5 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

82

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $66.8K · Liq $47.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?

Moved up 19.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

58.0%

+19.5 pts
23

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $31.6K · Liq $42.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

32.5%

+6.0 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

79

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soonMoving fast

Inspect moveVol $59.8K · Liq $85.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

37.0%

-7.0 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

97

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $80.1K · Liq $10.6K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

38.1%

+13.0 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $41.1K · Liq $9K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

8.5%

-5.0 pts
70

Trust

Medium

Movement

61

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $115.5K · Liq $109.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

41.5%

+2.0 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

71

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soonMoving fast

Inspect moveVol $62K · Liq $89.7K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

67.5%

-10.0 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

86

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $31.4K · Liq $63K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

11.0%

+3.5 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

62

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $137.2K · Liq $46.7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?

Moved up 3.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

59.1%

+3.9 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

67

Thin marketLoosely pricedResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $59.5K · Liq $3.9K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?

Moved up 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

58.0%

+14.5 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

66

Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $36.3K · Liq $33.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?

Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

38.5%

+5.5 pts
21

Trust

Low

Movement

87

Liquidity

68

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $6.1K · Liq $3.8K · Ends Jan 27, 2027

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

84.5%

+1.0 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

62

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $1.3K · Liq $8.6K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

78.5%

-4.0 pts
86

Trust

High

Movement

39

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $645.7K · Liq $519K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

KalshiMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?

Moved down 26.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

51.5%

-26.5 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

56

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $1K · Liq $900.1 · Ends Dec 8, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

56.5%

-3.0 pts
72

Trust

Medium

Movement

49

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $83K · Liq $99.1K · Ends Nov 28, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

77.5%

-4.5 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

41

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $128.4K · Liq $422K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

71.5%

+1.0 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

51

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $68K · Liq $151.7K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

6.7%

+1.3 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

68

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $44.3K · Liq $62.8K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

21.0%

-7.0 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

70

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $37.4K · Liq $22K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will the next white house press secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?

Moved down 8.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

64.0%

-8.2 pts
1

Trust

Low

Movement

97

Liquidity

58

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 1.6K mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Moved down 3.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

92.7%

-3.1 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

39

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $829.9K · Liq $166.5K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

72.5%

+5.0 pts
74

Trust

Medium

Movement

44

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $77.4K · Liq $280.9K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

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