Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- July 28, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 29, 2026 at 4:13 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:08 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- July 28, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 37d ago
What this market actually measures
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market data
24h volume
$7.9M
Liquidity
$8M
Total volume
$40.4M
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 99.9%
- Best ask
- 100.0%
- Resolves
- Jul 28, 2026