Cross-venue
The same question, priced independently on Polymarket and Kalshi. Each pair below was human-audited as the same underlying event. When two real-money markets disagree by more than 4 points, at least one of them is wrong — a gap is a caveat on the number, not a trade. Independent agreement, meanwhile, is one of the strongest credibility signals a probability can have.
Within 4 points of each other — independent venues corroborating the same probability.
Independent venues price this the same — a strong credibility signal.
Independent venues price this the same — a strong credibility signal.
Independent venues price this the same — a strong credibility signal.
Venue gaps reflect differing resolution criteria, fees, liquidity, and settlement risk as much as differing opinions — they are shown as a credibility signal, never as a tradable spread. Read how pairs are audited on the methodology page.