Israel closes its airspace by September 30?96%20.8Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?75%6.0Netanyahu out by end of 2026?51%3.0Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?21%4.1Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?33%10.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?54%4.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?55%3.3Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?71%7.0LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?28%2.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?36%4.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?46%4.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43%1.9Will Speaker Mike Johnson send the House members home early before midterms?81%14.6Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?16%2.0Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?37%18.2Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes??78%1.6

Cross-venue

Where the venues disagree

The same question, priced independently on Polymarket and Kalshi. Each pair below was human-audited as the same underlying event. When two real-money markets disagree by more than 4 points, at least one of them is wrong — a gap is a caveat on the number, not a trade. Independent agreement, meanwhile, is one of the strongest credibility signals a probability can have.

No audited cross-venue pairs have both sides live right now. Pairs appear here as soon as the same question is open on both venues.

Venue gaps reflect differing resolution criteria, fees, liquidity, and settlement risk as much as differing opinions — they are shown as a credibility signal, never as a tradable spread. Read how pairs are audited on the methodology page.