Fed rate hike in 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Polymarket)
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- December 8, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Fed rate hike in 2026? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 16, 2026 at 4:08 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 12, 2026 at 7:18 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- December 8, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 26d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data
24h volume
$510.2K
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$10.1M
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 99.9%
- Best ask
- 100.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 8, 2026