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A running log of every notable odds move, each tagged a real move, worth watching, or likely noise — with a one-line explanation of why we made the call.

Confirmed moveDevelopingLikely noise
  1. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 8Likely noise

    Anthropic releases OpenAI Dots competitor before 2027?

    30.5%→84.5%+54.0 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +54 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  2. 09:28 PMPolymarket24hLow Trust · 23Likely noise

    Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

    37.5%→69.0%+31.5 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +31.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  3. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise

    Did OpenAI "independently discover" php2shell by scanning chats of security researchers?

    50.0%→19.2%-30.8 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -30.8 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  4. 09:28 PMPolymarket24hMixed Trust · 55Confirmed move

    Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?

    63.5%→93.0%+29.5 pts
    Moving fast

    This market moved +29.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.

  5. 09:28 PMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise

    Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

    2.5%→30.5%+28.0 pts
    Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +28 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  6. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 5Likely noise

    Will the US create a universal Healthcare system by EOY 2030?

    50.0%→25.0%-25.0 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -25 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  7. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 18Likely noise

    Bitcoin $87,500 in October 2026?

    31.0%→53.8%+22.8 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +22.8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  8. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise

    Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early)

    85.3%→63.6%-21.6 pts
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -21.6 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  9. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 10Likely noise

    Will Trump ban Bombardier from selling in the US by the end of this year?

    24.9%→3.5%-21.4 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -21.4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  10. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 18Likely noise

    Will Michigan Proposal 2 (utility & contractor campaign donation ban) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

    89.8%→71.3%-18.6 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -18.6 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  11. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 10Likely noise

    Will 10+ flying Tesla roadsters be shipped before 2030?

    46.1%→28.6%-17.5 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -17.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  12. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 10Likely noise

    Will the 2026 Texas Senate race be the most expensive Senate race in history

    18.1%→35.0%+16.9 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +16.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  13. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 19Likely noise

    Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

    26.0%→42.1%+16.1 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +16.1 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  14. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 8Likely noise

    Will bluelinfish1 reach Celestial before lunetteb reaches Saint?

    80.0%→95.7%+15.7 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +15.7 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  15. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 13Likely noise

    US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.4000 or more on Election Day 2026?

    42.3%→27.0%-15.3 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -15.3 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  16. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise

    Will the S&P 500 close on Friday, October 23, 2026, at a level lower than that of Friday, October 16, 2026?

    62.3%→77.6%+15.3 pts
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +15.3 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  17. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 15Likely noise

    Will James Talarico win Tarrant County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election?

    62.9%→78.1%+15.2 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +15.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  18. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 13Likely noise

    Next White House Press Secretary announced before November 1 2026?

    54.4%→40.5%-13.9 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -13.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  19. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 11Likely noise

    Bitcoin price reaches 85k USD by the end of October

    80.4%→93.9%+13.5 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +13.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  20. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 4Likely noise

    🇫🇷🪧 Will France report 500,000+ protesters on at least 1 of the next 2 Saturdays (Oct 24 or Oct 31, 2026)?

    85.2%→72.0%-13.2 pts
    Thin marketResolving soonBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -13.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  21. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 7Likely noise

    Will php2shell result in human deaths?

    33.1%→20.1%-13.0 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -13 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  22. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hLow Trust · 35Likely noise

    US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

    93.5%→81.0%-12.5 pts
    Resolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -12.5 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  23. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 19Likely noise

    Will James Talarico win Starr County by 7.000% or more in the 2026 Texas Senate election?

    65.2%→77.4%+12.2 pts
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +12.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  24. 09:28 PMPolymarket24hLow Trust · 13Likely noise

    Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?

    85.8%→97.8%+12.0 pts
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +12 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  25. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 13Likely noise

    Will Democrats US House Popular vote % be 12x or more the US Gas Price average on election day?

    57.1%→69.0%+12.0 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +12 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  26. 09:28 PMPolymarket24hMixed Trust · 45Developing

    Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

    14.0%→2.1%-11.9 pts
    Resolving soonMoving fast

    This market moved -11.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

  27. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 2Likely noise

    🇺🇸📉 Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its October 2026 meeting?

    18.8%→7.0%-11.8 pts
    Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -11.8 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  28. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 11Likely noise

    Will Colorado Proposition 134 (male and female school sports) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

    59.9%→49.0%-10.9 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -10.9 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  29. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 22Likely noise

    Anthropic IPOs in 2026 AND has a closing market cap above 1.8trillion?

    47.2%→58.0%+10.8 pts
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +10.8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  30. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hMixed Trust · 56Confirmed move

    US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

    79.5%→69.0%-10.5 pts
    Moving fast

    This market moved -10.5 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.

  31. 09:28 PMKalshi24hLow Trust · 19Likely noise

    Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2027?

    54.0%→43.5%-10.5 pts
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -10.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  32. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 16Likely noise

    Will Bitcoin's daily close on October 31, 2026 be above $85,000 (CoinGecko)?

    38.9%→49.3%+10.4 pts
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +10.4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  33. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hMixed Trust · 56Confirmed move

    US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

    97.4%→87.1%-10.3 pts
    Resolving soonMoving fast

    This market moved -10.3 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.

  34. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hMedium Trust · 61Confirmed move

    US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

    81.5%→71.5%-10.0 pts
    Moving fast

    This market moved -10 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.

  35. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise

    Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?

    27.5%→17.5%-10.0 pts
    Thin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -10 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  36. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 18Likely noise

    Will Abdul El Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Election by 3% or more?

    55.0%→45.0%-10.0 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -10 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  37. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 33Developing

    Will Roy Cooper win by 4 points or more?

    72.3%→81.7%+9.4 pts
    Thin market

    This market moved +9.4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

  38. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 28Developing

    Will somebody perform an assassination attempt on Mark Zuckerberg before 2028?

    1.0%→10.1%+9.1 pts
    Thin market

    This market moved +9.1 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

  39. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hMixed Trust · 52Developing

    US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

    58.5%→49.5%-9.0 pts
    Moving fast

    This market moved -9 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

  40. 09:28 PMPolymarket6hLow Trust · 28Likely noise

    US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

    34.5%→25.5%-9.0 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -9 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  41. 09:28 PMKalshi24hLow Trust · 25Likely noise

    Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?

    29.0%→20.0%-9.0 pts
    Thin marketBig move, weak backing

    This market moved -9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  42. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 29Developing

    Will Real Madrid win a trophy in the 2026/2027 Season?

    73.0%→82.0%+9.0 pts
    Thin market

    This market moved +9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

  43. 09:28 PMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 64Confirmed move

    Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?

    14.5%→5.6%-8.9 pts

    This market moved -8.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.

  44. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 32Developing

    Will a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day?

    48.3%→39.7%-8.6 pts
    Thin market

    This market moved -8.6 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

  45. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money6hLow Trust · 5Likely noise

    Will Ken Paxton Accept the Results of the Texas Senate Election if He Loses

    56.2%→64.7%+8.5 pts
    Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

    This market moved +8.5 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.

  46. 09:28 PMManifoldPlay money24hLow Trust · 28Developing

    Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?

    31.5%→23.0%-8.5 pts
    Thin market

    This market moved -8.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.

Trending now

Biggest moves in this feed, one per market.

  1. 1Anthropic releases OpenAI Dots competitor before 2027?ManifoldPlay money+54.0 pts84.5%
  2. 2Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Polymarket+31.5 pts69.0%
  3. 3Did OpenAI "independently discover" php2shell by scanning chats of security researchers?ManifoldPlay money-30.8 pts19.2%
  4. 4Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Polymarket+29.5 pts93.0%
  5. 5Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?Kalshi+28.0 pts30.5%
  6. 6Will the US create a universal Healthcare system by EOY 2030?ManifoldPlay money-25.0 pts25.0%
  7. 7Bitcoin $87,500 in October 2026?ManifoldPlay money+22.8 pts53.8%
  8. 8Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early)ManifoldPlay money-21.6 pts63.6%
ProbCastProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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