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Live timeline
A running log of every notable odds move, each tagged a real move, worth watching, or likely noise — with a one-line explanation of why we made the call.
This market moved +83 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
This market moved +83 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
This market moved -65.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
This market moved -38.4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
This market moved -35.4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved +34 percentage points in 1h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
This market moved -33.4 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved -24.9 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
This market moved -4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
This market moved +3 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.