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A running log of every notable odds move, each tagged a real move, worth watching, or likely noise — with a one-line explanation of why we made the call.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hWatch Trust · 57Confirmed move
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
9.5%→68.0%+58.5 ptsMoving fastThis market moved +58.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Chances I will get a 1560+ on the September SAT?
75.6%→44.4%-31.2 ptsThin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -31.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 9Likely noise
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
15.8%→45.3%+29.5 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +29.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 7Likely noise
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
58.5%→29.0%-29.5 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -29.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket6hWatch Trust · 57Confirmed move
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
39.0%→68.0%+29.0 ptsMoving fastThis market moved +29 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will SpaceX Crew-13 launch by September 30, 2026?
50.6%→22.0%-28.6 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -28.6 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will John Fetterman resign from the United States Senate?
52.3%→24.8%-27.5 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -27.5 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will John Fetterman resign from the United States Senate?
52.3%→24.8%-27.5 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -27.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will French people with enterprise gpt access be able to access Astra / GPT-6 before the 7th of September 00:01 UTC
73.9%→48.2%-25.7 ptsThin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -25.7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold6hLow Trust · 3Likely noise
Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?
65.0%→86.0%+21.0 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +21 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 3Likely noise
Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?
65.0%→86.0%+21.0 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +21 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi1hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 2am EDT?
41.5%→62.5%+21.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +21 percentage points in 1h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 2am EDT?
41.5%→62.5%+21.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +21 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 2am EDT?
41.5%→62.5%+21.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +21 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will "Street Fighter" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi
42.0%→62.9%+20.9 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +20.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
41.0%→61.5%+20.5 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +20.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
32.4%→14.2%-18.1 ptsThin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -18.1 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 18Likely noise
Will I regret purchasing a Dyson camerajet? ($500USD Toothbrush)
41.3%→59.1%+17.8 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +17.8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 5Likely noise
Will GPT-7 destroy the world?
31.0%→13.3%-17.7 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -17.7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will Hillary Scholten win a house primary in 2028?
49.0%→66.4%+17.4 ptsThin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +17.4 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hWatch Trust · 58Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?
84.5%→67.5%-17.0 ptsMoving fastThis market moved -17 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMManifold6hLow Trust · 13Likely noise
Did Claude just solve navier stokes??
14.4%→30.6%+16.2 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +16.2 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 13Likely noise
Did Claude just solve navier stokes??
14.4%→30.6%+16.2 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +16.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 64Confirmed move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
18.5%→34.5%+16.0 ptsMoving fastThis market moved +16 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 62Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?
63.5%→48.5%-15.0 ptsMoving fastThis market moved -15 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?
70.0%→84.5%+14.5 ptsLimited dataThin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +14.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will Lindsay Clancy stand trial again for killing her three children?
50.0%→63.7%+13.7 ptsThin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +13.7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in August 2026?
71.5%→84.5%+13.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +13 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868
35.0%→22.0%-13.0 ptsThin marketStale priceBig move, weak backingThis market moved -13 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi1hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
49.0%→61.5%+12.5 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +12.5 percentage points in 1h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?
64.5%→52.0%-12.5 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -12.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?
47.3%→35.2%-12.0 ptsThin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -12 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
9.0%→20.8%+11.8 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +11.8 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
9.0%→20.8%+11.8 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +11.8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?
70.3%→82.1%+11.7 ptsThin marketStale priceBig move, weak backingThis market moved +11.7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 9Likely noise
Will Joe Schmid be Catholic end of 2026?
82.7%→93.8%+11.2 ptsThin marketStale priceBig move, weak backingThis market moved +11.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its foldable iPhone at its September 9 event?
8.9%→19.2%+10.3 ptsThin marketStale priceResolving soonThis market moved +10.3 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 77Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
59.5%→49.5%-10.0 ptsThis market moved -10 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 72Confirmed move
Fed rate hike in 2026?
61.5%→71.5%+10.0 ptsThis market moved +10 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hLow Trust · 26Likely noise
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?
45.0%→54.5%+9.5 ptsThin marketBig move, weak backingThis market moved +9.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold1hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?
34.0%→24.7%-9.3 ptsThin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -9.3 percentage points in 1h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 27Developing
Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October
30.6%→21.5%-9.1 ptsThin marketThis market moved -9.1 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 63Likely noise
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
41.5%→50.5%+9.0 ptsOne-trader moveThis market moved +9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMKalshi6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
52.5%→61.5%+9.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +9 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in September 2026?
43.0%→51.5%+8.5 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +8.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 37Developing
Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?
26.5%→18.3%-8.2 ptsThin marketThis market moved -8.2 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:52 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 29Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?
56.5%→48.5%-8.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketThis market moved -8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hMedium Trust · 72Confirmed move
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
41.5%→49.5%+8.0 ptsThis market moved +8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is high and the spread is tight, so ProbCast classifies this as a meaningful repricing.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hLow Trust · 9Likely noise
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?
56.0%→64.0%+8.0 ptsThin marketLoosely pricedMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved +8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMKalshi6hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?
90.0%→82.0%-8.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -8 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?
47.0%→55.0%+8.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedBig move, weak backingThis market moved +8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting?
62.5%→54.5%-8.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedThis market moved -8 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 7Developing
9984 reaches 6000 by Sep 10?
50.0%→42.4%-7.6 ptsThin marketResolving soonThis market moved -7.6 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:52 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Developing
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?
25.0%→17.5%-7.5 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale priceThis market moved -7.5 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:52 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 24Developing
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?
42.5%→49.5%+7.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketThis market moved +7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:52 AMPolymarket24hWatch Trust · 44Developing
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
36.5%→29.5%-7.0 ptsThin marketThis market moved -7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:53 AMKalshi24hLow Trust · 0Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in September 2026?
89.0%→82.0%-7.0 ptsLimited dataThin marketLoosely pricedStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backingThis market moved -7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak and the spread is wide, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:52 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 1Likely noise
Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?
55.1%→62.0%+6.9 ptsThin marketStale priceBig move, weak backingThis market moved +6.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 21Developing
Will the Strait of Hormuz fully close again in 2026?
71.1%→64.1%-6.9 ptsThin marketThis market moved -6.9 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.
- 05:53 AMManifold24hLow Trust · 8Developing
Can I Beat minecraft in this month With Hot potato?(manifolder)
57.3%→64.0%+6.7 ptsThin marketStale priceThis market moved +6.7 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity and spread conditions are mixed, so ProbCast classifies this as a watch item.