Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1. Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below). This market seeks to track if a model of approximately Agent 1 mini capabilities is released by the date AI 2027 projected. This market will resolve YES if any AI is released that scores at least as well as Claude Fable 5 on at least 8 out of 10 of the following benchmarks, and whose output tokens are at least 10x cheaper than Claude Fable 5's, by the end of 2026. The model must be released by the end of March to the public, but resolution may happen later due to the benchmarks being run later. Resolution sources are included with each benchmark, though these are subject to change for now SWE-bench Pro: 80.0% https://llm-stats.com/benchmarks/swe-bench-pro Frontier Code 1.1: 53.5% https://cognition.com/frontiercode Terminal bench: 44.5% https://www.tbench.ai/ Automation bench: 17.4% https://llm-stats.com/benchmarks/automationbench OS-World Verified: 86% https://osworld-v1.xlang.ai/ ARC AGI 2: 89.2% https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Epoch Capabilities Index: 162 https://epoch.ai/eci?subset-view=graph&subset-tab=Software+engineering&view=graph&tab=release-date FrontierMath Tier 4: 88% https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/tiers-1-4?view=graph&tab=release-date&tier=Tier+4+%28v2%29 Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index: 62 https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence Humanity's Last Exam: 55.5% https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/humanitys-last-exam If any of these benchmarks are no longer updated by this date, it will be removed from the resolution criteria, with a threshold of greater than or equal than 75% of the remaining benchmarks being used for resolution. If no such model is released by the end of 2026, this market resolves no. I will not trade in this market. See the version for the end of March 2027 here https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-any-model-at-least-as-good-as?r=QmVuQXliYXI Update 2026-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Benchmarks no longer updated refers to benchmarks that the candidate model has not been tested on.