Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
57.1 mana
Total volume
1.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Bitcoin hit $100.000 before 34000$?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4:59 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 78.8% (down from 79.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 57.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
78.8%
−1 percentage point
over 24 hours79.7% → 78.8%
Stale priceNot live — snapshot Oct 28, 4:59 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
36%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
11
Trades
39
over 74 days
Largest order
162 mana
1.4K mana traded across these 39 trades (last 74 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 30, 2027 at 11:30 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 8:36 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next478 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-1.07D-1.0