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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 2m ago

Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?

Market probability
37.2%
Little changed over 24 hours
108 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$8.8K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Intel Corporation (INTC) common stock trades at or above $150.00 USD at any point during standard market hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on any trading day in the calendar year of 2026. This market resolves to NO if Intel stock does not reach or exceed $150.00 USD during standard market hours in 2026.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Intel Corporation (INTC) common stock trades at or above $150.00 USD at any point during standard market hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on any trading day in the calendar year of 2026. This market resolves to NO if Intel stock does not reach or exceed $150.00 USD during standard market hours in 2026. Details & Edge Cases: Standard Hours Only: Trades during pre-market or after-hours sessions do not qualify. Only trades executed during standard Nasdaq regular trading hours will count. Stock Splits: If Intel undergoes a stock split, reverse stock split, stock dividend, or similar recapitalization before the end of 2026, the $150.00 threshold will be adjusted proportionally to reflect the change. Source of Truth: Price data will be verified using official transaction history and daily high data from Nasdaq or Yahoo Finance.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 14, 3:54 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next835 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ45.6K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
37.2%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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