Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
150 mana
Total volume
48.3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 5:08 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 23.4% (down from 26.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 150 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
23.4%
−3.2 percentage points
over 24 hours26.7% → 23.4%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
26%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
29
Trades
118
over 76 days
Largest order
303 mana
5K mana traded across these 118 trades (last 76 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$5K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Intel Corporation (INTC) common stock trades at or above $150.00 USD at any point during standard market hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on any trading day in the calendar year of 2026. This market resolves to NO if Intel stock does not reach or exceed $150.00 USD during standard market hours in 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Intel Corporation (INTC) common stock trades at or above $150.00 USD at any point during standard market hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on any trading day in the calendar year of 2026. This market resolves to NO if Intel stock does not reach or exceed $150.00 USD during standard market hours in 2026. Details & Edge Cases: Standard Hours Only: Trades during pre-market or after-hours sessions do not qualify. Only trades executed during standard Nasdaq regular trading hours will count. Stock Splits: If Intel undergoes a stock split, reverse stock split, stock dividend, or similar recapitalization before the end of 2026, the $150.00 threshold will be adjusted proportionally to reflect the change. Source of Truth: Price data will be verified using official transaction history and daily high data from Nasdaq or Yahoo Finance.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.7% → 23.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 5:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next474 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~28h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-3.27D-3.2
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