ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 7m ago

Will San Francisco voters pass the Prop G "reopen the Great Highway" ballot measure in 2026

As of Oct 5, 2026, 1:51 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.4% (down from 10.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ100 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
9.4%
−0.6 percentage points
over 24 hours10.0% → 9.4%
395 days until the event deadline
Deadline: November 4, 2027 at 2:59 AM ET

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$5.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" (or a substantially similar ballot measure to reopen the Upper Great Highway to private vehicular traffic on weekdays) is approved by San Francisco voters before or in the November 3, 2026, election. This market resolves to NO if: The ballot measure fails to qualify for the November 2026 ballot.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" (or a substantially similar ballot measure to reopen the Upper Great Highway to private vehicular traffic on weekdays) is approved by San Francisco voters before or in the November 3, 2026, election. This market resolves to NO if: The ballot measure fails to qualify for the November 2026 ballot. The ballot measure qualifies but is rejected by voters (fails to achieve the required votes to pass; the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" requires 50%+1) The ballot measure is legally blocked, disqualified, or otherwise removed from the ballot prior to the election. The primary source of truth for ballot qualification will be the San Francisco Department of Elections. The source of truth for election results will be based on reputable media reporting on the election. Background https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/great-highway-controversy-to-return-to-s-f-voters-22339743.php "In November 2022, voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposition to allow private cars on the highway everyday." "In November 2024, a majority of voters – 55% – backed closing the highway permanently to cars 24/7.  (A majority of voters in westside precincts, where residents regularly use the highway to commute and get around their neighborhood, voted against the measure.) Sunset District supervisor Joel Engardio was eventually recalled for his role in championing closing the  highway to create a park." [link preview] The park officially opened in April 2025. In July 2026, proponents of reopening the road submitted 15,626 signatures to qualify the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" for the November 2026 ballot. The proposed measure serves as a compromise that would allow car traffic on the roadway during weekdays while keeping Sunset Dunes Park open on weekends. City departments estimate that transitioning the park back to weekday vehicle use would cost approximately $14 million in infrastructure and signal restorations.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2027 at 2:59 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 1:59 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next1154 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5d
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ100

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ5.9K

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
9.4%
7-day range
9.4% – 10.0%
Resolves
Nov 4, 2027
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-0.67D-0.6