Will San Francisco voters pass the Prop G "reopen the Great Highway" ballot measure in 2026
As of Oct 5, 2026, 1:51 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.4% (down from 10.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ100 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" (or a substantially similar ballot measure to reopen the Upper Great Highway to private vehicular traffic on weekdays) is approved by San Francisco voters before or in the November 3, 2026, election. This market resolves to NO if: The ballot measure fails to qualify for the November 2026 ballot.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" (or a substantially similar ballot measure to reopen the Upper Great Highway to private vehicular traffic on weekdays) is approved by San Francisco voters before or in the November 3, 2026, election. This market resolves to NO if: The ballot measure fails to qualify for the November 2026 ballot. The ballot measure qualifies but is rejected by voters (fails to achieve the required votes to pass; the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" requires 50%+1) The ballot measure is legally blocked, disqualified, or otherwise removed from the ballot prior to the election. The primary source of truth for ballot qualification will be the San Francisco Department of Elections. The source of truth for election results will be based on reputable media reporting on the election. Background https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/great-highway-controversy-to-return-to-s-f-voters-22339743.php "In November 2022, voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposition to allow private cars on the highway everyday." "In November 2024, a majority of voters – 55% – backed closing the highway permanently to cars 24/7. (A majority of voters in westside precincts, where residents regularly use the highway to commute and get around their neighborhood, voted against the measure.) Sunset District supervisor Joel Engardio was eventually recalled for his role in championing closing the highway to create a park." [link preview] The park officially opened in April 2025. In July 2026, proponents of reopening the road submitted 15,626 signatures to qualify the "Great Highway for Everyone Act" for the November 2026 ballot. The proposed measure serves as a compromise that would allow car traffic on the roadway during weekdays while keeping Sunset Dunes Park open on weekends. City departments estimate that transitioning the park back to weekday vehicle use would cost approximately $14 million in infrastructure and signal restorations.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2027 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 1:59 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ100
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ5.9K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 9.4%
- 7-day range
- 9.4% – 10.0%
- Resolves
- Nov 4, 2027