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Home/AI / Tech/Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 9m ago

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Market probability
85.4%
+16.2 percentage points
over 24 hours69.2% → 85.4%
213 days until the event deadline
Deadline: March 31, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth. The probability moved another 2.9 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 2.9 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$1.8K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 16.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (69.2% → 85.4%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesMarch 31, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 30, 3:50 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ1.8K

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ1.8K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Change (pts)1H+2.96H+16.224H+16.27D+16.2
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

5/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement99

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity61

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 16.2 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
5Low
Where the price path tends to go next720 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
—
Current probability
85.4%
7-day range
69.2% – 85.4%
Resolves
Mar 31, 2027

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

5/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+43
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score5 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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