Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
210 mana
Total volume
4.2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 9:20 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 88.3% (up from 87.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 210 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
88.3%
+1 percentage point
over 24 hours87.3% → 88.3%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
41%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
21
Trades
57
over 63 days
Largest order
500 mana
4.2K mana traded across these 57 trades (last 63 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$4.2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1. Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1. Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below). This market seeks to track if a model of approximately Agent 1 mini capabilities is released around the time AI 2027 projected. This market will resolve YES if any AI is released that scores at least as well as Claude Fable 5 on at least 8 out of 10 of the following benchmarks, and whose output tokens are at least 10x cheaper than Claude Fable 5's, by the end of March 2027. The model must be released by the end of March to the public, but resolution may happen later due to the benchmarks being run later. Resolution sources are included with each benchmark, though these are subject to change for now SWE-bench Pro: 80.0% https://llm-stats.com/benchmarks/swe-bench-pro Frontier Code 1.1: 53.5% https://cognition.com/frontiercode Terminal bench: 44.5% https://www.tbench.ai/ Automation bench: 17.4% https://llm-stats.com/benchmarks/automationbench OS-World Verified: 86% https://osworld-v1.xlang.ai/ ARC AGI 2: 89.2% https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Epoch Capabilities Index: 162 https://epoch.ai/eci?subset-view=graph&subset-tab=Software+engineering&view=graph&tab=release-date FrontierMath Tier 4: 88% https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/tiers-1-4?view=graph&tab=release-date&tier=Tier+4+%28v2%29 Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index: 62 https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence Humanity's Last Exam: 55.5% https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/humanitys-last-exam If any of these benchmarks are no longer updated by this date, it will be removed from the resolution criteria, with a threshold of greater than or equal than 75% of the remaining benchmarks being used for resolution. If no such model is released by the end of March 2027, this market resolves no. I will not trade in this market. See the version for the end of 2026 here: https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-any-model-at-least-as-good-as-qzn2sLyP2C?r=QmVuQXliYXI
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMarch 31, 2027 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 9:28 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next396 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+1.07D+1.0
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