Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
500 mana
Total volume
2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]
As of Nov 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 4.5% (down from 6.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 500 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
4.5%
−1.4 percentage points
over 24 hours6.0% → 4.5%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
51%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
41
over 138 days
Largest order
1K mana
2K mana traded across these 41 trades (last 138 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves according to: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves according to: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 1, 1:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
24Low
Where the price path tends to go next442 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.424H-1.47D-1.4
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