Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
29 mana
Total volume
3.2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Monero (XMR) Coin be worth more than $475 on January 1st, 2027?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 12:48 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 67.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 29 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
67.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 17, 12:48 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
64%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
12
Trades
79
over 60 days
Largest order
150 mana
2.2K mana traded across these 79 trades (last 60 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$2.2K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the price of Monero (XMR) is recorded at or above $475.00 USD on January 1, 2027, at 00:00 UTC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the price of Monero (XMR) is recorded at or above $475.00 USD on January 1, 2027, at 00:00 UTC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. The primary sources of truth for resolving this market are: CoinGecko - Monero (XMR) Price Chart CoinMarketCap - Monero (XMR) Price Chart Background Monero (XMR) is a prominent, privacy-focused cryptocurrency that utilizes stealth addresses, ring signatures, and confidential transactions to hide sender, receiver, and transaction amounts. As of August 2026, Monero is trading between $410 and $415 USD, showing strong upward momentum relative to major cap pairs. This market allows traders to predict whether XMR can maintain this bullish trend and break past the $475 level before the year concludes. This description was generated by AI and a Human. Review and verify everything here yourself.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 2:51 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next594 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Related markets
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?
2%YESTrust 65
Polymarket$25K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
20%YESTrust 56
Polymarket$47.1K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
30%YESTrust 50
Polymarket$43.8K 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?
25%YESTrust 78
Polymarket$55.6K 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
43%YESTrust 47
Polymarket$38K 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 12-18?
1%YESTrust 51
Polymarket$28.7K 24h