Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
76.9 mana
Total volume
2.9K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Bitcoin be higher than $77,777 at the end of 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 7:32 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 71.2% (down from 74.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 76.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
71.2%
−3.6 percentage points
over 24 hours74.8% → 71.2%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
25%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
20
Trades
128
over 45 days
Largest order
100.6 mana
2.7K mana traded across these 128 trades (last 45 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$2.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Bitcoin (BTC) is priced strictly higher than $77,777.00 USD at the end of December 31, 2026 (UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Bitcoin (BTC) is priced strictly higher than $77,777.00 USD at the end of December 31, 2026 (UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Resolution Time: December 31, 2026, at 23:59:59 UTC. Primary Source: The daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on December 31, 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance (BTC-USD). Alternative Source: If Yahoo Finance data is unavailable or delayed, CoinGecko's historical data or CoinMarketCap will be used as a fallback. Discrepancy Resolution: If there are minor differences between sources, Yahoo Finance will be the final authority unless there is a clear reporting error. Background As of September 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the range of approximately $78,000 to $79,000 USD. The price has recently rebounded from an August 2026 low, returning close to the $80,000 resistance level.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (74.8% → 71.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 7:39 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next531 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~24h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.824H-3.67D-3.6
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