Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$62.8K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$27.5K
Total volume
$38.6K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 1:12 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 56.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $27.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $62.8K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
56.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
29%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
64
Trades
174
over 2 days
Largest order
$6.1K
$25.4K traded across these 174 trades (last 2 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$25.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: binance.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 1:25 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 7.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
24Low
Where the price path tends to go next57 observed
- Thin-liquidity spike79%
- Choppy / mean-reverting10%
- Trend continuation4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+7.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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