Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2027 meeting?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 10:06 AM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 21.5% (up from 10.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $664 traded in the past 24 hours and a bid-ask spread of 13.0 pts.
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (11 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolve…
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 11.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (10.5% → 21.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 15, 2027 at 1:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 28, 10:15 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±34 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Low liquidity score (30)
- Wide spread (13.0 pts)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$664
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$1.3K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Kalshi
- Open interest
- $1K
- Spread
- 13.0 pts
- Best bid
- 15.0%
- Best ask
- 28.0%
- 7-day range
- 10.5% – 21.5%
- Resolves
- Sep 15, 2027
- Resolution
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolve…