As of Oct 12, 2026, 2:28 AM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 52.0% (up from 48.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $211.1 traded in the past 24 hours and a bid-ask spread of 2.0 pts.
The venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Source: Kalshi price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Book depth (±5 pts)
$198.7
live order book
Bid-ask spread
2.0 pts
24h volume
$211.1
Open interest
$52K
It would take roughly $105.7 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
The venue's feed omits liquidity, so the score treats depth as unknown — the live order book above is the best read of how hard this price is to move.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending …
The probability rose 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (48.5% → 52.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 2:33 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
$211.1
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$69.1K