As of Oct 28, 2026, 8:27 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 81.0% (up from 73.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $92.7 traded in the past 24 hours, $204.1 of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 12.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Source: Kalshi price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume, an unusually wide spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$204.1
Bid-ask spread
12.0 pts
24h volume
$92.7
cash traded · $279.3 notional on Kalshi
Open interest
$11.2K
It would take roughly $8 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's off…
The probability rose 7.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (73.5% → 81.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 8:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.