As of Oct 12, 2026, 3:51 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 32.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $22.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $106.3K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$106.3K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$22.8K
Total volume
$113.8K
It would take roughly $18.2K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
80
Trades
200
over 11 days
Largest order
$2.5K
$18.5K traded across these 200 trades (last 11 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution source: federalreserve.gov
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 4:04 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
$22.8K
Liquidity
$106.3K
Total volume
$113.8K
Kalshi prices this same question at 32% vs Polymarket at 33%. The venues broadly agree, which adds confidence to the price.
Compare on Kalshi →