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Tracked markets, scored for trust

TrackingPolymarketKalshiManifold

Browse every market we track. Each card shows live odds, liquidity, and a trust score so you know which prices to believe. This is a curated slice (the most-traded open markets on each venue plus markets readers search for), not every market on Polymarket, Kalshi or Manifold. What's covered · How scores work

24h volume · 329 live tracked markets

$14.1M

Volume traded per 10-min interval

26 markets · $1.4M 24h volume in the live USD markets shown

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.2%

-0.4 pts
75

Trust

Medium

Movement

36

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $641.2K · Liq $98.2K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.0%

-1.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

44

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $159K · Liq $43.3K · Ends Oct 21, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.6%

-1.0 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

35

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $113.1K · Liq $121.8K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

70.0%

+23.5 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $80.6K · Liq $11.8K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.5%

-1.5 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

52

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $80.1K · Liq $29.1K · Ends Oct 24, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

24.5%

-7.0 pts
57

Trust

Mixed

Movement

64

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $63.9K · Liq $83.5K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

67.0%

-2.5 pts
61

Trust

Medium

Movement

49

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $60.7K · Liq $253.6K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20?

Moved down 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.1%

-0.9 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

27

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $60.2K · Liq $39.7K · Ends Oct 20, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?

Moved down 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.1%

-0.7 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

20

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $47.7K · Liq $116.3K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?

Moved down 23.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

29.7%

-23.4 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $47.4K · Liq $14K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.5%

+7.0 pts
20

Trust

Low

Movement

86

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $46.2K · Liq $112.4K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketOtherDeveloping

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.7%

+0.1 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $44.6K · Liq $18K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Daily Coinflip

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.2%

0.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

66

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 1.4K mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 20, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will 0xDe89112492A292c194D2501b2721D4Bc6cED2A75 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 25th 11:59 pm UTC

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.4%

0.0 pts
36

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

63

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 1.3K mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will the next white house press secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?

Moved up 15.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

77.5%

+15.7 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

96

Liquidity

56

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 729.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will this market reach 100 unique traders by October 26, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

20.2%

+0.2 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

4

Liquidity

53

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 280.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?

Moved up 24.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

68.4%

+24.4 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

89

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 215.9 mana · Liq 110 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇫🇷🪧 Will France report 300,000+ protesters on at least 1 of the next 2 Saturdays (Oct 24 or Oct 31, 2026)?

Moved up 17.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

81.6%

+17.6 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

92

Liquidity

51

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 151.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 24, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will my AI system dominate Astra and ProofCouncil?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.6%

+4.5 pts
26

Trust

Low

Movement

36

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 125.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Calvin Wang show up to 21W.023 on time?

Moved down 7.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

21.3%

-7.7 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

51

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 124.1 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Steph Curry traded before new season starts?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.8%

-8.0 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

51

Liquidity

48

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 22, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early)

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

48.7%

+0.5 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

4

Liquidity

49

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 96.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 22, 2026

KalshiCryptoDeveloping

Ethereum price at Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

12.5%

0.0 pts
3

Trust

Low

Movement

22

Liquidity

46

Thin marketLoosely pricedResolving soon

Inspect moveVol $74.8 · Liq $4.7K · Ends Oct 23, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

46.5%

-3.5 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

55

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 72.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

[ULTRA SHORT FUSE ~24h] Will the Uma Musume 7th live be cancelled?

Moved down 4.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.6%

-4.9 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

35

Liquidity

45

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 34.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 20, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will I run >20 miles this week?

Moved down 9.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

43.0%

-9.4 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

57

Liquidity

44

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 30 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 26, 2026

Top open markets by 24h volume

MarketVenueYesOdds ReliabilityUpdated
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.1%Stable9m ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket84.5%Stable9m ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.4%Stable9m ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket14.5%Stable9m ago
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Polymarket92.2%Developing Move — High reliability9m ago
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket79.5%Developing Move — High reliability9m ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.4%Stable9m ago
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket76.8%Awaiting resolution9m ago
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket23.5%Awaiting resolution9m ago
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Polymarket27.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?Kalshi38.5%Stable9m ago
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket2.5%Stable9m ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Polymarket78.5%Developing Move — High reliability9m ago
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Polymarket36.7%Developing Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket2.9%Stable9m ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Polymarket96.0%Stable9m ago
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolymarket0.9%Stable9m ago
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket2.1%Stable9m ago
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Polymarket10.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Polymarket8.5%Stable9m ago
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Polymarket4.8%Stable9m ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket12.5%Stable9m ago
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Polymarket9.5%Stable9m ago
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Polymarket7.6%Stable9m ago
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?Kalshi10.0%Stable9m ago
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Polymarket91.5%Stable9m ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket84.5%Reliable Move — High reliability9m ago
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?Kalshi61.5%Stable9m ago
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Polymarket16.5%Stable9m ago
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket14.8%Stable9m ago
ProbCastProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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