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Hot Markets
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?52%▲40.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?100%▲86.1Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼20.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?51%▼21.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲8.0Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?86%▲13.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼8.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202698%▲29.1Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲8.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?65%▼2.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▲1.5Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▲8.5Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▼1.0Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?19%▼32.2🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?45%▲3.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?20%▼12.0
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?52%▲40.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?100%▲86.1Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼20.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?51%▼21.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲8.0Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?86%▲13.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼8.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202698%▲29.1Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲8.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?65%▼2.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▲1.5Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▲8.5Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▼1.0Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?19%▼32.2🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?45%▲3.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?20%▼12.0

Directory

Every market, scored for trust

Browse the full universe of markets we track. Each card shows live odds, liquidity, and a trust score so you know which prices to believe.

Top open markets by 24h volume

MarketVenueYesOdds ReliabilityUpdated
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.4%Stable8m ago
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Polymarket14.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket48.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago

Manifold · 24h volume · 120 live tracked markets

Ṁ74.8K

Volume traded per 10-min interval

120 markets

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

Moved up 29.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

97.6%

+29.1 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

70

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ26.9K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 6, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will Joe Schmid be Catholic end of 2026?

Moved up 7.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

93.7%

+7.3 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

66

Liquidity

62

Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ13.6K · Liq Ṁ1.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?

Moved down 11.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

9.0%

-11.8 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

72

Liquidity

62

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.9K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September?

Moved down 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.3%

-0.7 pts
52

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.5K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?

Moved down 32.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.0%

-32.2 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

94

Liquidity

64

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.4K · Liq Ṁ2K · Ends Sep 13, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.0%

-0.4 pts
49

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ2.1K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

98.9%

+0.2 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.9K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Daily Coinflip

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.5%

+0.2 pts
36

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

8

Liquidity

66

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.8K · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will I regret purchasing a Dyson camerajet? ($500USD Toothbrush)

Moved down 2.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

59.1%

-2.7 pts
40

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

44

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.7K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Rogue AIs before 2028?

Moved up 4.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

65.1%

+4.4 pts
41

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

55

Liquidity

68

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.4K · Liq Ṁ10.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?

Moved up 9.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

32.6%

+9.2 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

62

Liquidity

62

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.3K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Feb 28, 2027

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Moved up 5.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

32.7%

+5.6 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

56

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.1K · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,710 on Friday?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

93.6%

+4.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

57

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ1.1K · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 4, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

45.3%

+3.0 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

57

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ811.7 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

50.3%

-1.7 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

56

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ774.2 · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Sep 8, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?

Moved down 17.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

1.1%

-17.9 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

84

Liquidity

53

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ733.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 8, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will studyofus.com (Aella's face-ranking site) have a serious data leak before 2027?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.1%

-2.1 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

52

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ603.9 · Liq Ṁ1.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

40.0%

-1.3 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

41

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ597.7 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2030

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Moved up 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.1%

+2.1 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

54

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ570 · Liq Ṁ6K · Ends Jan 1, 2028

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will Hillary Scholten win a house primary in 2028?

Moved up 17.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

66.4%

+17.8 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

84

Liquidity

59

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ557.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will America prohibit the sale of Mac Studios with \geq 256GB of RAM to China??

Moved down 35.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

7.6%

-35.7 pts
1

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

96

Liquidity

54

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ529.1 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% per year by the end of 2033?

Moved up 57.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

87.2%

+57.5 pts
8

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

54

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ467.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2033

ManifoldPoliticsLikely noise

Will The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?

Moved up 14.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

49.0%

+14.9 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

51

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ437.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Do you like 82% odds?

Moved up 3.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

82.0%

+3.9 pts
30

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

38

Liquidity

59

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ419.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

ManifoldCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

99.0%

+0.1 pts
40

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

57

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ343.4 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will French people with enterprise gpt access be able to access Astra / GPT-6 before the 7th of September 00:01 UTC

Moved up 24.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

45.4%

+24.1 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ280.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 6, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

Moved down 1.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

10.1%

-1.9 pts
31

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

35

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ262.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 11, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.4%

-0.4 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

55

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ250 · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Dec 31, 2039

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant cert or agree to hear arguments in the Texas DACA case by February 27, 2027? (2/27/27)

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

11.0%

-9.0 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

55

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ210 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Feb 26, 2027

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Opportunity party get 9.000% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ general election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

41.0%

0.0 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ200 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model

Little 24h change — what little moved looks like thin-market noise.

9.4%

0.0 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

62

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale priceBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ200 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

93.0%

+0.4 pts
36

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

57

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ190 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 10, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.1%

-3.5 pts
42

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ175 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

43.6%

0.0 pts
30

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

50

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ173 · Liq Ṁ3K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.8%

-0.6 pts
45

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ171.8 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will The Odyssey have a higher domestic PTA than Spider-Man on every remaining Tuesday in September?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

45.6%

0.0 pts
40

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ171.3 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 1, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Trump announces official change in US policy towards Falkland Islands before 2027?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

21.5%

-3.5 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

55

Liquidity

51

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ168.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Vilenkin's tunneling wave function become well-defined in his life time?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

23.7%

-1.0 pts
36

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ158.1 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 2, 2100

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

🇮🇷 Will the UN Security Council renew the Iran sanctions Panel of Experts mandate on September 17, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

15.0%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ150 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 16, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?

Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

82.1%

-2.1 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

17

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ144.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.0%

+1.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ135.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 15, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Apple fix its IP address leaks before 2028?

Moved down 3.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

67.4%

-3.7 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

28

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ132.3 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?

Moved down 21.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

14.2%

-21.3 pts
9

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

85

Liquidity

49

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ130 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Aug 31, 2029

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?

Moved down 17.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.2%

-17.8 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

96

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ127.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026?

Moved down 4.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

36.6%

-4.3 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

32

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ125 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Did the LZ detect a WIMP

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

37.1%

0.0 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ124 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the the NJ prediction market case by the end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

39.0%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ120.6 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on October 1st?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

29.8%

0.0 pts
46

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ119.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

14.1%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ118.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Nov 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Assortative mating of embryonically-selected individuals

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ100 · Liq Ṁ400 · Ends Apr 1, 2050

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will Adam Riess win a second Nobel prize?

Moved down 5.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.7%

-5.3 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

38

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ99.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2100

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

Moved down 20.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

22.0%

-20.1 pts
11

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

81

Liquidity

51

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ96.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

90%+ regular wearable use in 1+ country by EOY 2031?

Moved down 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.0%

-1.4 pts
31

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ95.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2031

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

2026 Gävle Goat stand proud midnight 27th December Swedish time

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

25.0%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ95 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 26, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will SpaceX Crew-13 launch by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 30.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.9%

-30.7 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ95 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 28, 2026

ManifoldCryptoLikely noise

Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October

Moved down 11.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

21.5%

-11.8 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

68

Liquidity

49

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ93.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026?

Moved down 25.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

20.1%

-25.8 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

90

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale priceMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ93 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 29, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Valve release a new VR game before the end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

23.2%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ91.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Jan 7, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Next Bond

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

91.6%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ86.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

27.6%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ83.6 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Person alive now becomes functionally immortal

Moved down 3.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.0%

-3.6 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

34

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ78.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 15, 2157

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the 2026 Vuelta a Espana have 20 stages with a winner?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

92.1%

+0.2 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ76.9 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 13, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Helsinki-Tallinn undersea railway tunnel holed-through before EOY2033?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.7%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ73.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2033

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

📱 Will Apple announce a U.S. starting price of at least $2,400 for its foldable iPhone at its September 9 event?

Moved up 10.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.2%

+10.3 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

59

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ71.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 9, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings)

Moved down 10.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

72.9%

-10.1 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

58

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ67.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 11, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will BBC News report US preparations for possible nuclear weapon use against Iran before 2028?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.8%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ65.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.7%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ63.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.0%

-15.0 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

46

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ63.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

67.0%

+2.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ62.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Aug 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

80.0%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ59.8 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 25, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will a second Mersenne probable-prime cofactor be found in 2026?

Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

60.0%

-6.5 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

77

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ57.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Parsol Shield sunscreen be sold in the USA through Amazon to consumers by the end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

65.1%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ57.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Chris Pappas win the 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Primary for Senate?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

95.6%

-0.1 pts
18

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

47

Thin marketStale priceResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ57 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 8, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will it Snow in September in Houston?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.9%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ55.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Current mod loses role by end Sept?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.4%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)

Moved down 2.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.4%

-2.9 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

23

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Mar 1, 2027

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrats win the House but lose the Senate?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

39.7%

+2.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.4 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?

Moved down 4.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.2%

-4.8 pts
7

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

52

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ52.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will Ethan Sun make USAJMO in 2027

Moved down 8.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

41.8%

-8.2 pts
2

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

50

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ51.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Feb 1, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedLikely noise

Will "Street Fighter" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi

Moved up 20.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

62.9%

+20.9 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

92

Liquidity

47

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol Ṁ50.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Can I Beat minecraft in this month With Hot potato?(manifolder)

Moved up 6.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

64.0%

+6.7 pts
12

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

45

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ50.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Pangram say average feed <50% human by 1 March 2027?

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

34.6%

-1.7 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

14

Liquidity

45

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ50 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Feb 28, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Запустит ли Kaspi новый крупный раздел/сервис в экосистеме до конца 2026 года?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

55.7%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ49.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?

Moved down 3.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

30.0%

-3.6 pts
6

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ49.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 2, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Moved down 2.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

83.0%

-2.8 pts
42

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

22

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ45 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Mar 31, 2027

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

27.8%

+0.1 pts
49

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ44.1 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Nov 2, 2026

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Barron Trump enter politics?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

40.1%

+5.0 pts
31

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

36

Liquidity

46

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ43.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 1, 2040

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will nadya271 reach Codeforces International Master in or before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

21.4%

0.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ42.4 · Liq Ṁ200 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be a Normal/Bug Pokemon released by the end of 2029?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

40.9%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

22

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ41.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Micheal Kovach voice act a Gameoverse Character in episode 2, 3, or 4?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

51.2%

0.0 pts
15

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

25

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ38.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Luffy defeat Imu in the official One Piece manga before December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

36.4%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ38.3 · Liq Ṁ310 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

38.2%

0.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ34.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will my @Sister achieve a prediction streak of 25 by EOY?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

89.0%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ33.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

52.3%

0.0 pts
26

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

44

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ28.6 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Oct 11, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25.1 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Nov 5, 2030

ManifoldPoliticsDeveloping

Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

16.7%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ25 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will California be in a drought at end of August 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

19.7%

0.0 pts
38

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

43

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ23 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Aug 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will we get GTA VI before Witchbrook?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.1%

+1.3 pts
10

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ21.8 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2999

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

28.8%

0.0 pts
25

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ21.3 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

44.0%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ21.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the EIA weekly U.S. average regular gasoline price fall below $3.75/gallon before November 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.5%

0.0 pts
22

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

38

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ20.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

58.5%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ20.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Oct 15, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Daniel appear in Israel in September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.0%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ20 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

31.5%

0.0 pts
19

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

38

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ19.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

88.3%

0.0 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

39

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.7 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Daniel Lord publicly state that he is in a romantic relationship before January 1, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

44.3%

0.0 pts
18

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

11

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.6 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

45.3%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

42

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.4 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Jul 31, 2027

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

New Melee Tier List before 2029?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

64.6%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16.4 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Samsung switch to horizontal camera layout on the next galaxy S phone?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

43.5%

0.0 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

40

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ16 · Liq Ṁ560 · Ends Feb 28, 2027

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

49.6%

0.0 pts
27

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

46

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15.1 · Liq Ṁ10K · Ends Mar 31, 2027

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

G20 countries merge?

Moved up 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

22.2%

+0.7 pts
23

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

43

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2040

ManifoldGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the US announce materially tougher Iran sanctions within 14‑days of Scott Bessent’s “Economic D‑Day” FT op‑ed?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

25.7%

-0.3 pts
35

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

51

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will there be a Fire/Fairy Pokemon released by the end of 2029?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

69.2%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ15 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Daniel Lord announce the acquisition of “cereal” before January 1st, 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

52.8%

0.0 pts
17

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

12

Liquidity

36

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ14.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 14, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

35.8%

0.0 pts
21

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

37

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ14.2 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 13, 2026

ManifoldAI / TechDeveloping

Will there be a new contender on Felony Bench by end of 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

55.1%

0.0 pts
24

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

41

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ13.5 · Liq Ṁ1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the closing price of silver exceed $65 at the end of September, 2026 based on the SI=F ticker on Yahoo Finance

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

46.6%

0.0 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

43

Thin market

Inspect moveVol Ṁ12.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Sep 30, 2026

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Prototaxites get it's own kingdom before Christmas 2030?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

74.6%

0.0 pts
16

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

36

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ11.9 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 24, 2030

ManifoldMacro / FedDeveloping

Am i going to get 5 straight A-s for my first 5 grades?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

62.3%

0.0 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

36

Thin marketStale price

Inspect moveVol Ṁ11.5 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Jan 30, 2027

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket93.0%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket14.5%Stable8m ago
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Polymarket8.6%Developing Move — Medium reliability8m ago
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket1.7%Stable8m ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Polymarket2.1%Stable8m ago
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket85.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket13.2%Stable8m ago
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Polymarket3.6%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Polymarket1.0%Stable8m ago
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?Polymarket69.0%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

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