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Tracked markets, scored for trust

TrackingPolymarketKalshiManifold

Browse every market we track. Each card shows live odds, liquidity, and a trust score so you know which prices to believe. This is a curated slice (the most-traded open markets on each venue plus markets readers search for), not every market on Polymarket, Kalshi or Manifold. What's covered · How scores work

Manifold · 24h volume · 120 live tracked markets

86.9K mana

Volume traded per 10-min interval

120 markets

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

"Avengers: Doomsday" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.7%

+1.7 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

84

Liquidity

70

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 18.9K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

33.0%

-2.0 pts
56

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

72

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 13.2K mana · Liq 5.2K mana · Ends Jan 1, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democratic candidate James Talarico win Tarrant County in the 2026 TX-SEN election?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

92.5%

+3.5 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

40

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 8.4K mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

GPT-6.1+ Astra released in October?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

25.0%

-5.0 pts
29

Trust

Low

Movement

63

Liquidity

68

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 6.6K mana · Liq 1.5K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Election by 3% or more?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

46.0%

+1.0 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

66

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 4.5K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House following the Midterms?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

6.0%

0.0 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 3.4K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Anthropic above 10T valuation on June 14 2027

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

11.2%

+0.3 pts
50

Trust

Mixed

Movement

17

Liquidity

65

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 2.3K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Jun 14, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Mitch McConnell alive all of October 2026?

Moved down 1.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

96.7%

-1.6 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

63

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.6K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Daily Coinflip

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

50.2%

0.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

66

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 1.4K mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 20, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Republicans win Texas governor by 6+ points?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

37.0%

-1.0 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

31

Liquidity

62

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.4K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will 0xDe89112492A292c194D2501b2721D4Bc6cED2A75 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 25th 11:59 pm UTC

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.4%

0.0 pts
36

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

63

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 1.3K mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026?

Moved up 4.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

91.0%

+4.8 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

39

Liquidity

58

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.3K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoLikely noise

Bitcoin $87,500 in October 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

27.0%

+4.0 pts
22

Trust

Low

Movement

73

Liquidity

62

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 1.3K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Moved up 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

35.2%

+0.9 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

66

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.2K mana · Liq 15K mana · Ends Jan 10, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Nidal Hasans execution be livestreamed in 2026?

Moved down 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.1%

-0.9 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

59

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 1.1K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI solve a new millennium prize problem by EOY 2026?

Moved down 3.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.9%

-3.1 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

50

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 873 mana · Liq 200 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will Meta's Muse still be the #1 free iPhone app in the US on October 31, 2026?

Moved up 7.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

62.7%

+7.7 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

67

Liquidity

52

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 824.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan be livestreamed by the end of 2027?

Moved down 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.0%

-0.6 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

5

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 811.6 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will the next white house press secretary after Katie Zachariah be a blonde woman?

Moved up 16.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

78.1%

+16.4 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

96

Liquidity

56

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 752.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

Moved down 13.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

25.7%

-13.3 pts
4

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

60

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 650 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?

Moved down 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.5%

-0.7 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

59

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 642.9 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.0%

-12.0 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

58

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 637.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will France cut off funding to Ukraine in 2027?

Moved down 10.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

40.6%

-10.8 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

85

Liquidity

56

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 541.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will GTA 6 be decompiled within a month of release

Moved down 4.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

41.8%

-4.2 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

50

Liquidity

60

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 533.9 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 19, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Team Bardiani start the 2027 Giro d'Italia?

Moved down 11.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

20.4%

-11.1 pts
23

Trust

Low

Movement

63

Liquidity

60

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 500 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends May 8, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Idaho Proposition 1 (reproductive freedom and privacy act) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.0%

-4.0 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

60

Liquidity

59

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 492.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Montana I-194 (Montana Plan ban on entity election spending) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

55.0%

0.0 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

56

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 436.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Moved down 2.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

69.2%

-2.9 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

40

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 419 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

🇺🇸📉 Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its October 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.2%

0.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 380 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 28, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will North Carolina's 3.5% cap on state income tax rate amendment be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

84.0%

0.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

34

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 350.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

12.0%

-6.0 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

74

Liquidity

57

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 309.9 mana · Liq 500 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?

Moved up 8.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

72.0%

+8.3 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

82

Liquidity

54

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 279.2 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

89.6%

0.0 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

50

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 270.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?

Moved down 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.0%

-1.2 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

22

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 263.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 27, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Zvi write a full report on Muse Wonder?

Moved down 3.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

16.7%

-3.4 pts
21

Trust

Low

Movement

65

Liquidity

58

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 258.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will the OpenAI spy get bail?

Moved up 2.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

29.0%

+2.4 pts
36

Trust

Low

Movement

19

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 252 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 24, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will I weigh >160lbs at the end of October?

Moved down 2.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

12.1%

-2.8 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

22

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 250 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Kathy Hochul outperform Letitia James?

Moved up 14.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

52.3%

+14.7 pts
15

Trust

Low

Movement

81

Liquidity

56

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 250 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Donald Trump go to Maine before election day?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

14.7%

-3.0 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

23

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 250 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 2, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

24.4%

0.0 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 222 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 6, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will this market reach 100 unique traders by October 26, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

20.2%

+0.2 pts
27

Trust

Low

Movement

4

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 218.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇷🇸 Will the SNS-led list win the most seats in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election?

Moved up 24.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

68.4%

+24.4 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

89

Liquidity

53

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 215.9 mana · Liq 110 mana · Ends Oct 23, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin's daily close on October 31, 2026 be above $85,000 (CoinGecko)?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

34.0%

+3.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

38

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 213.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Troy Jackson win his hometown?

Moved up 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

69.9%

+1.2 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 213 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

70.0%

-0.3 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 212.1 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

70.5%

-1.3 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 200 mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

84.0%

+3.0 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

42

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 190.7 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.4000 or more on Election Day 2026?

Moved down 4.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

42.3%

-4.7 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

64

Liquidity

53

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 189.3 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio?

Moved down 0.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

29.6%

-0.7 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

33

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 188.1 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?

Moved down 1.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.4%

-1.6 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

28

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 185.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will California Proposition 41 (tax limits and special-tax audits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

56.0%

+1.0 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

20

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 172.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Elon Musk give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year?

Moved down 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

28.0%

-22.0 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

53

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 171.2 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Abdul El-Sayed win by 7 points or more?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.0%

+2.0 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

31

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 159.7 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

🇫🇷🪧 Will France report 300,000+ protesters on at least 1 of the next 2 Saturdays (Oct 24 or Oct 31, 2026)?

Moved up 17.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

81.6%

+17.6 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

92

Liquidity

51

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 151.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 24, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Guillotines have a come back by 2030

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

18.5%

-0.2 pts
51

Trust

Mixed

Movement

2

Liquidity

59

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 150 mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDeveloping

Diesel export ban before midterms?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.4%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 144.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 2, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.9%

0.0 pts
49

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

56

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 144.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 2, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

66.1%

-1.5 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 129.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Donald Trump make an endorsement or comment on the NZ election before polls close?

Moved down 11.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

8.2%

-11.3 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

64

Liquidity

48

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 128 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 7, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Democrat Shomari Figures win Alabamas 2nd congressional district in 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

32.0%

+2.0 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 126.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Pope Leon XIV in Argentina before 2027

Moved up 22.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

55.2%

+22.4 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 126.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Putin still be in power on January 1, 2029

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

80.0%

+9.0 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

87

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 126.4 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jan 1, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will my AI system dominate Astra and ProofCouncil?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

45.6%

+4.5 pts
26

Trust

Low

Movement

36

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 125.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

6.9%

-0.5 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

4

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 125 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Jan 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will global zero-dose children fall below 13 million in 2026?

Moved down 26.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

34.4%

-26.5 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

91

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 124.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

Will the left and right switch positions on AI?

Moved down 12.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

28.8%

-12.2 pts
5

Trust

Low

Movement

72

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 112.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Aug 13, 2036

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will MF DOOM be referenced in Avengers: Doomsday?

Moved up 18.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

56.9%

+18.2 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 111.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?

Moved down 32.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

55.2%

-32.3 pts
5

Trust

Low

Movement

98

Liquidity

49

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 110.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends May 13, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic release an image model before 2029?

Moved up 6.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

80.9%

+6.4 pts
22

Trust

Low

Movement

44

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 106 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Anthropic IPOs in 2026 AND has a closing market cap above 1.8trillion?

Moved down 4.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

47.2%

-4.7 pts
37

Trust

Low

Movement

37

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 105 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Missouri Amendment 3 (repealing 2024 abortion-rights amendment) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

53.0%

+1.0 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

40

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 104.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Steph Curry traded before new season starts?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.8%

-8.0 pts
18

Trust

Low

Movement

51

Liquidity

48

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 22, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will Yudkowsky substantially lower his P(doom) in response to Cammarata's "Neural Networks Are Already Clean"?

Moved down 1.2 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.7%

-1.2 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

10

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.4%

+0.8 pts
46

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?

Moved down 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

2.9%

-1.7 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

32

Liquidity

47

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

19.7%

-1.5 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

29

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 1.1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Shane Gu live over 1000 years?

Moved down 15.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

12.9%

-15.2 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

97

Liquidity

50

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jul 1, 3311

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Bitcoin price reaches 100k USD by the end of October

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

-0.1 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 100 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? (Polymarket)

Moved down 3.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

25.6%

-3.4 pts
34

Trust

Low

Movement

47

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 98.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026? (Closes early)

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

48.7%

+0.5 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

4

Liquidity

49

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 96.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 22, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will the Titanic II set sail iin June 2027 as planned?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

33.0%

0.0 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

0

Liquidity

47

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 93.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jun 30, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Moved up 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

35.6%

+0.9 pts
48

Trust

Mixed

Movement

8

Liquidity

57

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 92 mana · Liq 6K mana · Ends Jan 1, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.0%

-2.0 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

36

Liquidity

55

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 87.6 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

23.4%

-4.5 pts
35

Trust

Low

Movement

33

Liquidity

50

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 82.6 mana · Liq 317 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Iowa Amendment 1 (two-thirds vote for income tax increases) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 4.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

41.2%

+4.7 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

47

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 75 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Calvin Wang show up to 21W.023 on time?

Moved down 7.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

21.3%

-7.7 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

50

Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 74.1 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 21, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.7%

-1.3 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 73.6 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

46.5%

-3.5 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

55

Liquidity

52

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 72.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

53.6%

+0.1 pts
52

Trust

Mixed

Movement

1

Liquidity

61

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 70 mana · Liq 10K mana · Ends Oct 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?

Moved down 5.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

71.7%

-5.5 pts
32

Trust

Low

Movement

39

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 62.2 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Florida Amendment 1 (Budget Stabilization Fund changes) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

67.0%

+2.0 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 55.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?

Moved up 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.1%

+2.1 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

19

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 55 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin be higher than $77,777 at the end of 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

73.2%

+1.5 pts
43

Trust

Mixed

Movement

13

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 54 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noise

If CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?

Moved up 19.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

69.2%

+19.2 pts
7

Trust

Low

Movement

88

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 53.9 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Mike Johnson be the Majority or Minority Leader in the House after the Midterms?

Moved down 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

30.8%

-14.5 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

96

Liquidity

47

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 52 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Jan 3, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will the party with the highest party vote %, supply the Prime Minister after the NZ election?

Moved down 3.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

63.9%

-3.1 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

24

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Russia publicly commit to an energy-infrastructure ceasefire with Ukraine before Nov 20, 2026?

Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.6%

-2.5 pts
38

Trust

Low

Movement

20

Liquidity

48

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 20, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will the Ban Superintelligence Act pass by the end of 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

17.9%

-0.3 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

3

Liquidity

54

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 2K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

75.0%

0.0 pts
47

Trust

Mixed

Movement

0

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will JerryRigEverything win his $10K bet against Palmer Luckey?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

80.0%

+0.8 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

7

Liquidity

52

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Roy Cooper win by 4 points or more?

Moved up 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

72.3%

+1.3 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

11

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.4%

-1.3 pts
39

Trust

Low

Movement

26

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 500 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

AnyPS5 reaches 100% in October?

Moved up 2.3 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

54.2%

+2.3 pts
40

Trust

Mixed

Movement

19

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up Senate seats in 2026? [Cook Political Report]

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

40.1%

-2.0 pts
41

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

51

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 50 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 3, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will 10+ flying Tesla roadsters be shipped before 2030?

Moved down 1.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.1%

-1.9 pts
3

Trust

Low

Movement

74

Liquidity

48

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 49.3 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2029

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Russia attack Europe with drones before October 31?

Moved down 6.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

18.2%

-6.8 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

68

Liquidity

46

Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 48 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 30, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will I pass my Chemistry 1110 final?

Moved down 1.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

57.9%

-1.1 pts
31

Trust

Low

Movement

9

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 43 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 10, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Will Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before the end of 2027?

Moved up 3.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

12.0%

+3.1 pts
27

Trust

Low

Movement

24

Liquidity

46

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 42.4 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDeveloping

Will Anthropic announce a new operating system for most of its AI agent workloads by April 30, 2027?

Moved down 10.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

23.4%

-10.1 pts
24

Trust

Low

Movement

59

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 40 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Apr 29, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyCryptoDeveloping

Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before November

Moved up 2.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

18.4%

+2.7 pts
33

Trust

Low

Movement

39

Liquidity

49

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 38.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Georgia Amendment 1 (conservation use acreage limit increase) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

85.0%

-3.5 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

55

Liquidity

49

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 35.8 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

🇺🇸 Will Trump meet Kim Jong Un before end of 2026? 🇰🇵

Moved down 7.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

20.7%

-7.3 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

75

Liquidity

49

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 35.1 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

[ULTRA SHORT FUSE ~24h] Will the Uma Musume 7th live be cancelled?

Moved down 7.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

62.6%

-7.4 pts
9

Trust

Low

Movement

48

Liquidity

45

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 34.8 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 20, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Next White House Press Secretary announced before November 1 2026?

Moved up 6.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

53.9%

+6.5 pts
28

Trust

Low

Movement

44

Liquidity

45

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 32.7 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will @jim's Lightcone Commons project be allocated funding in October 2026?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

34.0%

+9.0 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

87

Liquidity

46

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 30.5 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 1, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDeveloping

Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

61.0%

+2.0 pts
42

Trust

Mixed

Movement

16

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 30.4 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will I run >20 miles this week?

Moved down 9.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

43.0%

-9.4 pts
6

Trust

Low

Movement

57

Liquidity

44

Thin marketResolving soon

Inspect moveVol 30 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Oct 26, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Will Rob Sand run for president before 2040?

Moved down 15.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

43.8%

-15.2 pts
1

Trust

Low

Movement

74

Liquidity

45

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 30 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Dec 31, 2039

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will CA prop 40 get >50% of the vote

Moved down 12.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

37.2%

-12.8 pts
0

Trust

Low

Movement

94

Liquidity

46

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 30 mana · Liq 100 mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDeveloping

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

15.0%

+1.0 pts
44

Trust

Mixed

Movement

9

Liquidity

53

Thin market

Inspect moveVol 30 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Top open markets by 24h volume

MarketVenueYesOdds ReliabilityUpdated
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ProbCastProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyAboutContactCoverageMeta's ArenaTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket12.5%Stable13m ago
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Polymarket9.5%Stable13m ago
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Polymarket7.6%Stable13m ago
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?Kalshi10.0%Stable13m ago
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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