Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
168 mana
Total volume
1.6M mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
As of Oct 31, 2026, 8:09 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 4.8% (up from 4.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 168 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
4.8%
+0.8 percentage points
over 24 hours4.0% → 4.8%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
82%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
43
Trades
134
over 39 days
Largest order
116.6K mana
348.7K mana traded across these 134 trades (last 39 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$348.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 31, 8:13 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next437 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+0.87D+0.8
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