Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.3K mana
Total volume
3.9K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?
As of Oct 31, 2026, 2:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 15.0% (down from 20.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.3K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
15.0%
−5 percentage points
over 24 hours20.0% → 15.0%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
48%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
21
over 60 days
Largest order
750 mana
3.6K mana traded across these 21 trades (last 60 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$3.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves yes if the opportunities party gets a higher vote percent than at least of act, nz first and greens in the 2026 nz general election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves yes if the opportunities party gets a higher vote percent than at least of act, nz first and greens in the 2026 nz general election.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 5.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (20.0% → 15.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 31, 2:13 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 5.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next499 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~16h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-5.024H-5.07D-5.0
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