ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 5h ago

Will Andrew Tate be extradited by the end of the year?

As of Sep 30, 2026, 4:06 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 24.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity.

Market probability
24.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
91 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

Data is not live — latest snapshot Sep 30, 4:06 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$911.3 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

https://www.tmz.com/2026/07/18/andrew-tristan-tate-arrested-miami/ Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, Andrew Tate is physically extradited or legally transferred under custody from the United States to either the United Kingdom or Romania. This market resolves to NO if he is not extradited or legally transferred to either country by the deadline (includ…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

https://www.tmz.com/2026/07/18/andrew-tristan-tate-arrested-miami/ Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, Andrew Tate is physically extradited or legally transferred under custody from the United States to either the United Kingdom or Romania. This market resolves to NO if he is not extradited or legally transferred to either country by the deadline (including if he remains in US custody, is released on bail in the US, or if extradition proceedings are still ongoing but not completed). Custody Transfer: For the purposes of this market, "extradited" requires a formal legal transfer of custody to UK or Romanian officials and physical transport to either nation. Voluntary self-travel or deportation to another country does not count. Verification: Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., AP News, BBC, TMZ). Background On July 18, 2026, Andrew and Tristan Tate were arrested by U.S. Marshals in Miami, Florida, outside a bare-knuckle boxing venue. The arrests occurred on a sealed warrant following a formal extradition request by the United Kingdom’s Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). The CPS has announced a major expansion of charges against Andrew Tate, bringing his total indictment in the UK to seven counts of rape, three counts of arranging or facilitating trafficking for sexual exploitation, three counts of assault, and 19 counts involving indecent images of a child and extreme pornography. The Tates also face separate, long-standing criminal charges in Romania. Both brothers deny all allegations.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
30Low
Where the price path tends to go next1094 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ5.1K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
24.4%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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