Will Andrew Tate be extradited by the end of the year?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 4:06 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 24.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Sep 30, 4:06 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
https://www.tmz.com/2026/07/18/andrew-tristan-tate-arrested-miami/ Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, Andrew Tate is physically extradited or legally transferred under custody from the United States to either the United Kingdom or Romania. This market resolves to NO if he is not extradited or legally transferred to either country by the deadline (includ…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
https://www.tmz.com/2026/07/18/andrew-tristan-tate-arrested-miami/ Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, Andrew Tate is physically extradited or legally transferred under custody from the United States to either the United Kingdom or Romania. This market resolves to NO if he is not extradited or legally transferred to either country by the deadline (including if he remains in US custody, is released on bail in the US, or if extradition proceedings are still ongoing but not completed). Custody Transfer: For the purposes of this market, "extradited" requires a formal legal transfer of custody to UK or Romanian officials and physical transport to either nation. Voluntary self-travel or deportation to another country does not count. Verification: Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., AP News, BBC, TMZ). Background On July 18, 2026, Andrew and Tristan Tate were arrested by U.S. Marshals in Miami, Florida, outside a bare-knuckle boxing venue. The arrests occurred on a sealed warrant following a formal extradition request by the United Kingdom’s Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). The CPS has announced a major expansion of charges against Andrew Tate, bringing his total indictment in the UK to seven counts of rape, three counts of arranging or facilitating trafficking for sexual exploitation, three counts of assault, and 19 counts involving indecent images of a child and extreme pornography. The Tates also face separate, long-standing criminal charges in Romania. Both brothers deny all allegations.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ5.1K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 24.4%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026