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The probability decreased by 7.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as a developing move — real, but not yet decisively backed.
Will Israel hold an election in 2027? The current Manifold probability is 28.3%, down 7.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as a Developing Move with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
This market resolves to YES if Israel holds a nationwide legislative election to elect members of the Knesset (parliament) on any date from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, inclusive. Israel's next legislative election is scheduled to be held by October 27, 2026. However, Israel's political landscape is highly volatile, frequently characterized by early coalition dissolutions and snap elections. For this market to resolve YES, the scheduled 2026 election would need to be delayed into 2027, or a newly formed government would need to collapse shortly after taking power, triggering a subsequent election in 2027. If elections occur in 2026 as scheduled and no further Knesset election is held in 2027, this market will resolve NO.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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