Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
108.1 mana
Total volume
1.6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Israel hold an election in 2027?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 3:48 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 28.1% (up from 25.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 108.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
28.1%
+2.6 percentage points
over 24 hours25.5% → 28.1%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
29%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
14
Trades
32
over 128 days
Largest order
250 mana
1.6K mana traded across these 32 trades (last 128 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$1.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves to YES if Israel holds a nationwide legislative election to elect members of the Knesset (parliament) on any date from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, inclusive. Israel's next legislative election is scheduled to be held by October 27, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves to YES if Israel holds a nationwide legislative election to elect members of the Knesset (parliament) on any date from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, inclusive. Israel's next legislative election is scheduled to be held by October 27, 2026. However, Israel's political landscape is highly volatile, frequently characterized by early coalition dissolutions and snap elections. For this market to resolve YES, the scheduled 2026 election would need to be delayed into 2027, or a newly formed government would need to collapse shortly after taking power, triggering a subsequent election in 2027. If elections occur in 2026 as scheduled and no further Knesset election is held in 2027, this market will resolve NO.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 3:55 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next617 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~25h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+2.624H+2.67D+2.6