Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
802 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 14, 2026, 7:22 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 36.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
802 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
9
Trades
25
over 51 days
Largest order
150 mana
767 mana traded across these 25 trades (last 51 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Lars Klingbeil officially steps down, resigns, is replaced, or otherwise ceases to hold the office of Federal Co-Leader (co-chairman / Bundesvorsitzender) of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Lars Klingbeil officially steps down, resigns, is replaced, or otherwise ceases to hold the office of Federal Co-Leader (co-chairman / Bundesvorsitzender) of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Key Clarifications: "Stepping down" requires the cessation of his role as SPD co-leader on or before the target date or his announcing an intention to step down at a future date. Ceasing to hold his other government offices—such as Federal Minister of Finance or Vice Chancellor—does not count toward a YES resolution unless he also ceases to be the SPD co-leader. Resolution will be verified using official press releases from the SPD or prominent, reliable mainstream news coverage (e.g., Tagesschau, Der Spiegel, Deutsche Welle, or Reuters). Background Lars Klingbeil has served as the co-leader of Germany's center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) since December 2021. In June 2025, he was re-elected at the SPD federal party convention alongside co-leader Bärbel Bas. Following the 2025 German federal elections, the SPD entered a grand coalition as a junior partner under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in which Klingbeil assumed the offices of Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance. While Klingbeil remains active in his leadership roles, poor performances by the SPD in several recent state elections have prompted internal debates regarding the party’s future direction and leadership stability.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 7:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.